AllSaints continues on with his planning strategy today…………
While most people will start with approximately 13/14 premiums, 15/16 rookies and one Loophole rookie, some will start with 15/16 premiums (incl. potential breakouts and/or previous year injuries1) with 13/14 rookies and one Loophole. Some SCTers prefer no loophole at all, relying on injuries or non-selection in future rounds to provide them with the option then.
There is no right or wrong answer at this stage, since we don’t have enough information for next year (eg rookies and their JS, player availability, positional status, trades, new coaches, bye allocations etc.). What we do have is loads of data AND a well-considered and trusted strategy for team set-up. From what I have learned in my year at SCT, we can start by making some broad assumptions. We can then look at data to better inform some key decision-making and finally try to put some bare bones in place, in order to be in the strongest position possible, when SuperCoach 2019 opens in earnest.
Like your “living list”, strategy selection should be inter-changeable to meet your needs. We can look at pricing now for 2019 and start to put that skeleton side together.
Following the above guidelines, we should start by picking a minimum 4-6-2-4 uber premium list, given that NO team will likely ever start with that many Premiums. It allows for more flexibility for final selection when the bye rounds are announced and allows you to ONLY try and pick 4 of the Top 7 DEFs and FWDs, 6 of the Top 9 MIDs and the RUC approach is a personal choice. Remember, the intention when choosing starting Premiums is to ONLY pick those that you believe will not need to be traded for the ENTIRE season (unless picking up an LTI of course).
SuperCoach 2019 Pricing
Over the last couple of months I have done some detailed analysis on starting prices for any given SC season. I’ve used a sample size of 62 players and have gone back 5 years in some cases just to make sure (test/validate assumptions) and as far as I can work out, the following is true.
allsaints’ Blessed Number
This is different to FD’s magic number and I will explain as we go through this section. At the start of every year, the SC algorithm sets a blessed number for pricing. It appears that this number takes into account the history of SC scoring over the last season and acts as an inflationary marker at season’s start. As the season progresses it adjusts (downwards) to account for points volumes and duly has a significant bearing on BEs and how prices (based on $ per point) change over the season. The more NEW players that play in a given week and the more points they score, the greater the deflationary pressure on the overall market. At season’s start the blessed number is applied to all established players and rookies for the forthcoming season. It increases from year-to-year, a little like inflation, which is why our base rookie prices increase each year, from c. $92k back in the ’80s 😉 to $102,400 this year.
This year the blessed number at season’s start was approx. $5498
– In 2017 it was approx. $5438.7
– In 2016 it was approx. $5396.2
Interest rates over the last four-five years have fluctuated from a low of .43%, to a high of 1.1% (this year). For next year, we will assume the largest increase will be inflicted upon us. If we do that, we can assume that the blessed number will be $5558.478 in 2019. It will likely be less than that, but this way it serves its purposes for planning (ie we will likely overprice our desired premos, but I’d suggest by no more than 2% given the decimal ranges we’re working to.
It is also worth noting that the blessed number for Rd 23 2018 was only $4843.70. That represents an 11.9% drop in $/point value over the course of the season, and THAT is the consequence of new players and new points entering the aggregate scores over the course of the season. It is also the reason that a player starting the 2018 season with a 2017 average of 100, would have been priced at $549,800 at season’s start, whereas a player this week who has averaged 100 over the course of this season, with a three-game average of 100 will this week be priced at $484,400 and will have a BE of 100. We will talk more about this in a later edition, but means that your dollars in the bank will buy MORE point-value as the season progresses.
Right, now to pricing rules
You can get a pretty good indication now on the premos you like/want given that their starting price in 2019 will be no more than their average at this season’s end x $5558.478. This ‘rule’ will ring true for ALL players who have played 8 or more games in 2018. There are no exceptions. It is for players who have played less than 8 games or none at all, for who discounts will apply.
An example: Dangerfield currently averages 118.4. At this average, his starting price in 2019 will be no more than $685,100
If a player plays less than 8 games then there are some generic discounts that apply (regardless of whether they are an established player or a rookie).
6-7 games: if a player plays only six or seven games in a season, then you can calculate his starting price as above, but then apply a 10% discount (or multiply your answer by 0.9). There are no exceptions I can find.
4-5 games: if a player plays only four or five games in a season, then you can calculate his starting price as above, but then apply a 20% discount (or multiply your answer by 0.8), again there are no exceptions that I can find.
– For established players who miss an entire season (eg Docherty, Williams, Z) you have to take their average from the previous year (2017) then calculate their starting price as normal, but then apply a 30% discount! Or multiply the answer by 0.7
o Docherty in 2019 will be priced at no more than $446,300
§ I could only find one exception to this rule over the last 5 years and that was Liberatore in 2016, who received a discount of 40%.
o All 13 players I looked at from last year, received the 30% discount, bar none.
– For rookie players who didn’t play a game this year there are two rules
o Premium-priced rookies (or Round1 draft picks) who don’t play a game will be priced at the higher base-priced rookie, (ie what was $123,900 in 2018), while
o standard rookies will be priced at a discount down to and including the minimal rookie price (ie what was $102,400 in 2018).
For one, two and three game players it becomes a little more complicated, but there are some rules. Start all calculations in the usual manner, ie 2018 average * blessed number, then:
Three-game players: there are two rules. Usual calculations apply, but
– If a player averages less than 50 he receives a 20% discount off starting price, and
– If a player averages more than 50 he receives a 30% discount (yes, I know that seems counter-intuitive, but it is correct)
One and two-game players: again usual calculations apply (ave*5558.478), then:
– All players who average more than 70 receive a 40% discount
– Rookies who average between 50 and 70 receive a 30% discount
– Established players with the same average get a 20% discount
– Rookies who average less than 50 receive a 20% discount (but will not be priced less than the standard rookie price, ie what was $123,900 in 2018)
– Established players who average less than 50 are potatoes and should not be considered under any circumstances 😉
With the above information, you can start building your Premium Target List for 2019 and subsequently put a skeleton side together. For example ONLY…….
The above uber premium skeleton list will cost no more than $7,981,900 at today’s ave.s, using the upper blessed number value. This leaves on average $126,300 for each rookie; and slightly more per rookie if you choose a base-priced loophole. While it is unlikely that Danger, or in particular Dusty will be afforded FWD status, this process allows you to see what you can afford. Your living “target list” will then provide you with the necessary contingency target players to fill such holes, should positional status not be available when SC 2019 eventually opens.
We’ll talk about Rookies next. In the meantime, good luck putting your Premium Lists together!
** Thanks to AllSaints for his insight into planning for Rd1! – Schwarzwalder **
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