Round 7 Review

Written by Thommo on May 8 2017

THE BLUNDSTONE SCT GROUP PRIZE (THE BLUNNY?)

Greg and his Champ’schamps@SCT and James with his JJ’sCIRCUS@SCT have used a tough week to jump into the top 5 teams in the group. Good work fellas!

TEAM COACH TOTAL SCORE Rank
Baby Bombers@SCT Dilan 15222 891
Jobe robbed@SCT Jataal 15218 923
Champ’schamps@SCT Greg 15213 959
JJ’sCIRCUS@SCT James 15195 1127
Ballsandall@SCT Dave 15154 1528

Please note that I am only listing the teams from the group with @SCT because only they are eligible for the overall prize!

SUPERTALK COACH CHAMPION

Last week, we Supercoaches voted for:

5 – Gary Ablett: He’s back and despite his low ownership, we appreciate the little master.

4 – Sam Docherty: It’s criminal how few votes Doc gets for such a gun!

3 – Scott Pendlebury: It’s even more criminal how few votes Pendles has this season!

2 – Elliott Yeo: Enough coaches jumped on board last week to reward Yeo-yo for his 150.

1 – Rory Sloane: He deserved more but his ownership is holding him back this season.

The overall leaderboard shows what a mixed year it has been with few players receiving regular votes:

Player Total Votes
Rory Sloane 10
Patrick Dangerfield 7
Gary Ablett 5
Luke Dahlhaus 5
Rory Laird 5
Dustin Martin 5
Scott Pendlebury 5
Nick Riewoldt 5
Adam Treloar 5
Sam Docherty 4
Robbie Gray 4
Marc Murphy 4
Toby Nankervis 4
Tom Rockliff 4
Joel Selwood 4
Josh Kennedy (WC) 3
Tom Lynch 3
Marcus Bontempelli 2
Nat Fyfe 2
Stefan Martin 2
Eliott Yeo 2
Eddie Betts 1
Dyson Heppell 1

So who did you like in Round 7?

Supercoach Talk Champion 2017, Round 7 (5 choices)

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PRESEASON THEORIES AND PREDICTIONS

Many people, the most famous being Nostradamus, have made predictions of the future. Some predictions were spookily accurate, some close and some were absolute crap but often the speakers of prophecy are long-dead by the time their prediction is proven or debunked so they never receive the accolades or recriminations they deserve.

At Supercoach Talk we, and our community regulars, also make multiple predictions during the preseason, citing theories and history to make our arguments, and we are never really called to account either.

That ends today.

After 7 rounds, enough time has passed for us to test the validity of many theories and predictions.

Not all, perhaps, but many of them.

Let’s take a glance!

HEROES AND VILLAINS FOR ROUND 7

ST KILDA 16.12 (108) DEF GWS 12.13 (85)

Robert Heinlein predicted in his 1940 short story, “Solution Unsatisfactory” that America would develop a nuclear weapon before any other country, prompting other countries to race to create their own nuclear bomb.

Either he’d being talking to Oppenheimer or that was an amazingly accurate prediction of the nuclear arms race and Cold War that commenced after the atomic bomb was dropped 5 years later.

Heinlein probably wished he was wrong!

#1: Turn the Heat off

We at Supercoach talk had a group theory in the preseason that Heath Shaw’s role had changed, that he was no longer doing all the rebounding and that teams were manning him up. In other words, avoid Heather.

After 7 rounds, Heater has been serviceable but there is no doubt Williams, Haynes and Williams are looking for old man Shaw less than before, dropping his average down to 91 points. He is not receiving any further attention from opposition sides as predicted but avoiding him early in 2017 seemed to be a good call.

I think we can claim this one as a victory!

Heroes

Speaking of predictions, this is one I didn’t tip! The Saints ran all over GWS late in the match, with Jack Steven (120) and Blake Acres (106) both running riot and kicking 2 goals each in the final quarter. Impressively Steven committed just 2 clangers in his 29 possessions and Acres none from his 23 possessions.

Jack Billings (114) was brilliant early on Friday night but slowed down as the game wore on however anyone who held him would finally be happy while those five Seb Ross (111) owners were unlucky not to receive a higher score this week after his 31 possession, 9 clearance effort.

Jake Kelly (108) continues to justify his high asking price for his next contract as he posted yet another polished 4 quarter performance including 28 possessions and a match high 9 tackles.

Villains

The commentators during last week’s clash against Hawthorn mentioned that Nick Riewoldt (65) was unwell but he didn’t seem overly affected. Perhaps he is still recovering, maybe his knee is concerning him or perhaps he just had a poor match. Either way, 13 possessions, 3 marks and no goals is not what his owners paid for. He’ll be ripe to pluck post bye now!

Richo will be happy that his team won with Leigh Montagna (74) and Riewoldt having a poor match. Joey wasn’t that bad with 18 possessions at 83% DE but he just wasn’t in the play much.

Stevie J (39) was terrible with his 20 possessions offset by a poor 65% DE, 7 clangers and 4 free kicks against. He had better shape up or he might discover the joys of the NEAFL.

Facing only the young Billy Longer, Shane Mumford (67) was expected to dominate but he didn’t win a lot of hit-outs to advantage from his 32 total with Longer being surprisingly hard to move in the ruck battle.

The GWS forward line was a bit dysfunctional and Toby Greene was partly to blame. Was it worth it Toby?

NORTH MELBOURNE 22.13 (145) def ADELAIDE 13.8 (86)

Raymond Kurzweil has accurately predicted, well, just about everything, in his five novels. Amongst his achievements he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, that computers would defeat humans at Chess by 2000, that the internet would explode in use and become wireless. So accurate have his predictions proven (at least 89 from 109 proven accurate) that Google hired him and made him the Director of Engineering.

Garry Kasparov sweating bullets against Big Blue.

#2: The Shaun Higgins conundrum

Alright, I’ll own this one. I said that Higgins will likely make the top 6 forward list if he can stay fit, even if I was too cowardly to select him.

I convinced one SCT writer at least!

He is averaging 95 points per match at the moment but he has also missed one match as a late withdrawal.

Pass or fail? You tell me!

Heroes

Anyone who had Jarryd Waite (190) in their Supercoach team is hereby banned from the site for the remainder of season 2017. If you had him as captain you are banned next season too. He was great though with 22 possessions, 8 marks, 6 goals and no clangers. As usual the tribunal will look at his antics… again!

Look how much these reviews mean to the AFL players! After making the villain list last week, Ben Cunnington (129) rebounded with a 29 possession, 13 clearance and 2 goals effort this week. That’s all me!

Scott Thompson (123) wound back the clock to when he was SC relevant with 24 possessions and 10 marks. Likewise Sam Jacobs (118) circa 2013 turned up again to be the Crows’ best player with 19 possessions, 35 hit-outs and 1 goal.

He was mentioned in the preseason as a breakout contender but unfortunately injury prevented Mason Wood (117) from making many teams but he has some serious SC ability, mimicking Thompson’s 24 possessions, 10 mark game and adding 2 goals.

Villains

Tex Walker (24) was lucky not to record a negative score with 7 possessions, 4 marks, 1 goal and 1 goal assist offset by 3 frees against and 5 clangers. Rory Sloane (82) was better with 18 possessions but he struggled to break the Gibson tag and may find himself tagged more often after the Crows fell in a massive 64 point hole early in the match.

And now for our weekly Shaun Higgins (72) watch: He sucked!

CARLTON 12.7 (79) def COLLINGWOOD 8.8 (56)

An ancient Mayan calendar carved on stone marked the end of a 5126-year era and supposedly indicated that the end of the world would fall on December 21, 2012.

So was that prophecy correct?

Are we all dead, existing in the afterlife and we just don’t know it?

And if we are in the afterlife, why do our Supercoach teams still suck?

And why does Shaun Higgins exist?

Maybe this is this hell?

When did calendars stop being fun?

#3: Treloar b4 Pendlebury in 2017

Many of use spruiked that Treloar was on the way up, that he may even overtake Pendles who was suffering Achilles soreness late in the preseason.

What the hell were we thinking?

Epic fail!

Heroes

If anyone reads this far through the review, can you please let me know if you held Sam Petrevski-Seton (134)? You’d be ecstatic if you did as he appears to be half rat, half duck and all gun after 21 possessions and 2 goals in the wet.

Ben Reid (130) was one of Collingwood’s few consistently good players with 25 possessions at 80% DE and 12 marks, 2 contested.

Matthew Krezuer (127) scored surprisingly well off 15 possessions, 29 hit-outs and 2 goal assists but Marc Murphy (118) scored exactly as he should have as his 30 possessions ran at 83% DE in a welcome return to form.

Taylor Adams (114) is still rewarding his owners as he’s fit and firing after another 27 possession effort and is clearly a top 2 defender.

Caleb Marchbank (108) wasn’t a top 5 scorer but as a rookie, I want to hug him!

Villains

Brodie Grundy (58) + Mason Cox = a big sticky mess. Like a 5 year old, Brodie continues to hate sharing.

Jeremy Howe (60) doesn’t win enough of the ball to score big unless he pulls down heaps of contested marks or uses the ball well. Unfortunately he did neither in the wet!

Steele Sidebottom (72) and Adam Treloar (73) both continue to stink and will both be bargain priced next season under their new coach. Yes, I went there, Bucks!

WEST COAST 15.7 (97) def PORT ADELAIDE 12.15 (87)

Nostradamus, the famous French seer from the 16th Century, made many predictions that appeared to be accurate. Try this one:

The blood of the just will be demanded of London
Burnt by fire in the year ’66
The ancient Lady will fall from her high place
And many of the same sect will be killed.

That prediction seemed to refer to the great fire of London of 1666 which consumed much of the city, taking 3 days to extinguish and consumed St Paul’s Cathedral.

Or was the fire random chance and Nostradamus just a mad chemist?

#4: No KPPs

In most seasons, this rule has stood strong. However, this year starting with Josh Kennedy has certainly not hurt. His low scores have not been terrible and his overall average of 107 points per match certainly places him amongst the top 6 forwards.

Other tall forwards like Lynch and Dixon have been handy, although Buddy and Rance are yet to really play consistent footy.

Heroes

We knew he had it in him, but Patrick Ryder (139) has taken until Round 7 to smash out a monster with 20 possessions, 42 hit-outs, 7 marks – with a huge 5 contested – and 1 goal.

Charlie Dixon (134) looked a man among children on Saturday, taking 6 contested marks to go with 22 possessions and 3 goals.

And how can we not mention Elliott Yeo (124) who was average for 3 quarters and punched out a massive fourth quarter to really sh#t his non-owners. I sense another Yeo Poll coming this week!

Brad Ebert (107) and Chad Wingard (102) were both busy through the midfield, gathering 30+ possessions, but let themselves down slightly with poor disposal efficiency.

Villains

For anyone complaining about acquiring Pendlebury, spare a thought for anyone who owns Robbie Gray (29). We were thinking of bringing him in post bye but I think I’ll pass that rollercoaster thank-you. He is clearly not fit and will be a great forward selection next season.

Ollie Wines (72) and Andrew Gaff (70) both had fast starts to 2017 but are definitely slowing now even if they are still playing decent footy. Just goes to show how tough it is to be a true premium.

Jeremy McGovern (53) is important to West Coast and can go large with intercept marks but he wasn’t able to get free as often as usual against Port. He just can’t quite make that step to true premium either!

GOLD COAST 18.16 (124) def GEELONG 15.9 (99)

Baba Vanga was a blind Bulgarian woman (born 1911, died 1996) who made many predictions for the future. Among her many predictions she claimed that by 4599 man would achieve immortality and that less than 100 years later we would begin assimilating with the aliens we meet on the hundreds of planets we will have populated. She claimed that in 4509 man will become sufficiently developed that he will begin to communicate with God directly. In 2221, while searching for extraterrestrial life man will come into contact with something truly terrible (though she didn’t state what). Closer to our own time she predicted a change in the Earth’s orbit in 2023 and World War III in 2010.

So in other words, she was a bit cray-cray!

Baba says: “Prepare to be probed”.

#5: In Danger we trust!

This looked right until the Cats faced Hawthorn and Roughead took exception to Dangerfield’s gluteus maximus. Since then, he has really struggled and his average has dropped to 115 points per match. Certainly that is no tragedy but we all could have spent that $100k elsewhere!

Unfortunately this was a fail as anyone who hasn’t got Danger can now afford him!

Heroes

Another player who is in few teams is Aaron Hall (120) who gathered 32 mostly uncontested possessions, 10 marks and kicked 1 goal. Meh! Not so meh was Jarrod Witts (116) who is owned by every intelligent coach and dominated the ruck contest with 43 hit-outs. Love you Wittsy! Enjoy China!

When Stevie May (112) is on song, the Suns are a much better side. His 26 possessions ran at an elite 93% DE and he had 7 rebound 50s.

Patrick Dangerfield (111) looked a bit more his old self with 29 possessions, 16 contested, 10 clearances, 9 tackles and 1 goal assist. If he cleans up his disposal a bit, the old Danger will be back!

And finally, the forgotten Jarryd Lyons (107) who is in the same basket as Crisp at Collingwood: A decent player who received little interest from the media in trade period. Adelaide could have done with him this week!

Villains

Remember when Mark Blicavs (43) was a thing? Maybe he needs to return to steeplechasing?

Remember when Brandon Matera (65) was a thing? It was a balmy day in  April, 2017; I remember it well.

Gary Ablett (83) giveth and he taketh away. Somehow Gazza turned 32 possessions and 5 tackles into a sub-par score with 9 clangers. NINE! I could be wrong but that’s must be close to a record!

Touk Miller (83) started the year as a good forward option but he has dropped off after the first month, only recording 18 possessions this week. A year too soon for Touk-touk I’m afraid people.

WESTERN BULLDOGS 11.14 (80) def RICHMOND 11.8 (75)

This is an oldie but a goodie: Aristotle in 350BC (and Pythagorus and Anaxagoras before him) predicted that the Earth was a sphere. I know, nothing impressive to us who know the Earth is obviously round, but as late as 1519-22 when Ferdinand Magellan circumnavigated the globe, many people still believed the Earth was flat.

Smart man, that Aristotle.

The Church would be more fun if run by Terry Pratchett!

#6: No JLT, no chance!

Pendles, Bontempelli and Sloane were obvious examples of players who had interrupted preseasons and we all avoided them, much to our chagrin. Lachie Neale and Patrick Cripps were other examples of players with interrupted preseason who have taken a few weeks to find form. So is this prediction or theory a good one this season?

Pendles, Bontempelli and Sloane actually had full preseasons and suffered late injuries during the JLT series.

Maybe for future reference we should create an exception for champion players who have only missed the JLT series.

Heroes

#IwantBont is no longer trending! Marcus Bontempelli (128) has entered the Tribe and responded with 27 possessions and 1 goal.

Lachie Hunter (126) and Jackson Macrae (117) both ran amok sharing 58 possessions between them, with Macrae everywhere after half time.

Trent Cotchin (108) pulled out a Supercoach Special in his 100th game as captain with 20 possessions and 8 tackles someone adding up to 108 points. Schwarzy, please explain!

He’s been a little quiet in recent weeks, but Top Deck Jason Johannisen (106) got amongst the scorers again with 24 possessions. I still don’t rate the hair!

Villains

This one surprised me as Lin Jong (52) seemed effective and everywhere at times but his 21 possessions only ran at 66% DE.

Dustin Martin (87) also had plenty of the ball this week with 28 possessions and 2 goals but he committed 7 clangers this week and he seriously needs to work on his skills!

SYDNEY 20.15 (135) def BRISBANE 12.9 (81)

After working for half a century and spending £500m, scientists in 2011 revealed that they have detected strange fluctuations in Earth’s orbit. Space-time is bent and then twisted round our planet as it rotates, announced researchers with Nasa’s Gravity Probe B project.

The effect is tiny but crucial, they added – and was predicted almost 100 years ago by Albert Einstein in his great theory of gravity; general relativity. According to Einstein, an apple falls to the ground not because it feels the force of Earth’s gravity but because the apple is responding to the curvature of space-time near the Earth’s surface caused by the planet’s huge mass. In the same way, the Sun bends space in a manner that allows Earth to revolve around it.

Absolute genius: Imagine what Einstein could have done if he had a computer at his disposal!

#7: Josh P Kennedy starts slow

Can’t argue with this one. He has only lodged a couple of good scores to date and is well and truly in struggle down.

Good call!

Heroes

We all sensed this performance was coming: Lance Franklin (160) finally got amongst the SC Heroes with 8 goals from 16 kicks and 9 marks.

Likewise Tom Rockliff (148) returned to form after last week’s debacle with 32 possessions, 7 clearances, 11 tackles and 2 goals. Methinks he was trying to prove something to the coach in the absence of Beams!

Zak Jones (143) is fast becoming an inspired defensive option to start 2017 at about $300k while Dan Hannebery (118) and Isaac Heeney (116) enjoyed beating up on the Lions. Another good week or two and maybe we can announce the return to form of Hannes!

Villains

With the return of Heeney, Callum Mills (54) looks like he won’t be getting enough midfield time to score well. If you own him, rethink that soon!

As written above, Josh Kennedy (77) is known to start the season slowly and come home fast. When is he going to fire up? Just the 20 possessions on Sunday.

After his interrupted preseason, Luke Parker (83) still hasn’t rediscovered his mojo. He’s a bargain if he ever does!

MELBOURNE HAWTHORN

The most interesting predictions are the really, really dumb ones. For instance, the Decca Records executive when talking to the Beatles’ manager, Brian Epstein, following an audition in 1962 who said “We don’t like your boys’ sound. Groups are out. Four-piece groups with guitars, particularly, are finished.”

I wonder if his boss said, “Hello, Goodbye” when the Beatles went big?

Yep, they won’t make it big!

#8: Injury prone players are not worth the risk

This is a favourite of Chips Ahoy! who focussed on Taylor Adams and Jeremy Howe in particular. This is hard to rate at this point in time with so many rounds remaining, but when you compare their current performance with Adams averaging 111 points per match and Howe 93, Adams has scored 126 more points in just 7 rounds.

Adams could have a week off and still be ahead.

We’ll put this one in the vault, but I am one coach who has regretted starting with Howe ahead of Adams!

Heroes

Jack Viney (123) was everywhere after half-time racking up 32 possessions and 15 tackles and engineered the Melbourne revival in the third quarter.

Jarryd Roughead (114) looked to be leading up the ground like his old self, kicking 4 goals, collecting 15 possessions and 6 marks (3 contested). If you held him, this was a welcome relief.

Ryan Burton (112) is going to be a star of the future and could feature in the Rising Star award. He was forced to man up on Hogan and Pedersen and could do with a few more meals.

Ben McEvoy (111) continues to dominate as sole ruckman and is actually averaging 99 points per week while Tom Mitchell (108) didn’t hit many targets but 31 possessions and 12 tackles still gets you a tonne!

Villains

Hands up if you brought him in this week? Michael Hibberd (56) did NOT repay the faith.

Cyril Rioli (50) isn’t looking like his old self with just 12 touches, 6 of them effective.

Jeff Garlett (78) wasn’t terrible but he’s here for boasting about his 3 goals to Ben Stratton without winning the game. Scooooore Boooooard!

FREMANTLE 17.14 (116) def ESSENDON 11.13 (79)

This is more of a group shaming to all the publishers who rejected Harry Potter. The story fluctuates in the number but it is said that the book was rejected between 9 and 12 times and to make matters worse, one of those publishers then rejected Rowling under her pseudonym of Robert Galbraith.

They even sent her a letter telling her to take a writing class.

Great job predicting the writing market folks!

#9: The Banned Bombers won’t play out the season

Many Supercoaches avoided the Bombers as we were all worried that they may struggle after a twelve month break. Heppell and Hurley are both handy, if not spectacular, options but otherwise the only good Supercoach Bombers are those that played last season.

So far, that was a good call!

Heroes

If he wasn’t back already, he is now. Lachie Neale (147) just quietly racked up 40 possessions, 9 clearances at 80% DE and 1 goal.

Michael Walters (119) returned to form, pushing up the ground while Brad Hill (118) was also good with heaps of ball but still struggles to hit a target with 37 possessions and 16 marks but only 62% DE. I’ve always been a fan of Matt Taberner (119) but Ross doesn’t seem to like him. Maybe 4 goals will keep him in the side for a week!

Zac Merrett (133) played a loan hand with 28 possessions and 1 goal and is now averaging 109 points per week. Gun!

Villains

Aaron Sandilands (77) somehow turned 51 hit-outs into just 77 points. WTF! There must have been plenty of sharking going on!

And final we come to the letter Z.

David Zaharakis (59)!

I can’t believe I owned you last season!

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26 thoughts on “Round 7 Review”

  1. Love your work as always, Thommo!

    Many Coaches won’t want to hear it but Cotchin is actually having a decent start to the season (now ahead of Dusty on total pts). Only one clanger against the Dogs and eight tackles resulted in a friendly score from Champion Data. Plus 11 of the 20 disposals were contested. He’s not shying away from it, that’s for sure!

    I keep copping flak for it (well-deserved) but I’ll explain my Higgins pick………. I was actually going to start with Heeney who was similarly priced but he contracted glandular fever. After team selections came out for Rd1, I was (again) disappointed with the lack of decent rookies. So I decided to take the chance on all those injury-prone players that I’d been warned off (Fyfe, Beams, O’Meara, Sandi, Higgins) Either a genius move or bonehead play, right?
    I had my doubts on Roughead for the year as well so decided to invest the extra $60k for a possible F6 keeper (if he stayed fit, of course). And so, I have Higgins. He had a 99 avg after last week so I wasn’t too far off. Just the late withdrawal in Perth annoyed the hell outta me………

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    1. If anyone wants to see how my early predictions were for SC 2017, check out the ‘First Glance’ write-ups from December 2016……….

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    2. Thanks Schwarzwalder. I definitely think Cotchin is enjoying a tag free 2017.

      Higgins hasn’t been a terrible pick but it’s fun to laugh at his big head and tissue paper joints.

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  2. After that score from Franklin does that indicate a change in form to get him back to a premium top 6 forward or was that just a one off because it was Brisbane?

    32 break even 470k price tag seems like the optimum time to bring him in if he can continue form similar to this

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    1. I think the Swans’ draw opens up from now so not a bad idea. He won’t kick 8 goals every week though!

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  3. I can’t believe James Parsons avoided the Villains list somehow! FFS man, get the ball, make a tackle, belt someone, just do SOMETHING

    I also nominate myself for a Villain nod. I traded Roughy out for Balic on Sunday. I really did. I kept trying to wake up during the Hawks game, thinking it must just be a bad dream!

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    1. Totally agree Chillo, if I’d only traded in Black with his 69 instead of Parsons with his 19, I would have won an extra 2 league games this round. And Roughy I traded out the week before.

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    2. I try not to put rooks on the villains list. Only that saved Parsons.

      Still, subbed players scored more than 19!

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  4. Watching Z.Merrett live just puts a smile on your face when you have him in a fantasy team.

    He just demands the ball and finds a way every single week to get it done. Even when it is sharking a ball from Sandilands and kicking a goal.

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  5. J.kennedy (swans)is killing me, do I hold or sideways trade, also traded in Sloane, not a great week

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  6. I must admit I was a bit spooked leading up to Dec 2012. But as you say, who knows….

    Love it how this time you’ve managed to blend in some of the preseason theories of some of SCT’s finest with a few prophecies, not to mention your knowledge on some of these topics.

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  7. It is getting hard to resist Adams, but here’s a list with a common theme: JOM, Beams, Swallow, Sandi, Fyfe, Roughy, every Banned Bomber.

    Unless I’m forgetting someone, not a single player discounted due to injury/suspension has been a worthwhile pick. In fact, of all of them, Cam McCarthy has probably been the best!

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    1. The big fails have the ones ones out for a full season. Adams played last season. Not the same as a full year off. We sure learned about the horrors of a full season away! Will make a one post prodigal sons series next season. “No No No No No…”

      Sandi has been good. Made $140k and a 93 average, which is better than most cows this season money wise. But he did not have a full season off.

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    2. Agreed on most except I’ve been happy with Sandi like Father Dougall said. I like the new rule: 12 months off is a No go zone!

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