The Fallen Premiums – Rd 4, 2021

Written by Chillo on April 7 2021

This little article typically consists of players with that combination of low break-evens and a price tag that has been reduced from its starting point. That’s a little more difficult at this time of year, because you’re probably not going to target anyone who has already lost value. Instead, I’ve decided to look at a few interesting statistical trend and tried to apply this knowledge to some potential trade-ins for those of you looking for a sideways trade or two.

DEFENDERS

We’ve come a long way from the old days of defenders doing that dinky little kick to themselves, taking two steps and then going the roost from kick-ins. Now, the latest in Hocking’s enhancements grants the designated kicker an open paddock to run into, and it’s not uncommon to see the kick-in reaching well into the confines of the centre square. Given the extra meterage that is now possible, it’s not a coincidence that players who find themselves in this role are also posting impressive Supercoach numbers so far this season:

PlayerClub% total kick ins taken by player (raw)% play-ons
(raw)
2021 Supercoach
avg (ppg)
BE
Jordan RIDLEYESS90.9 (30/33)90.0 (27/30)136.061
Shannon HURNWCE74.2 (23/31)95.7 (22/23)114.372
Steven MAYMEL68.4 (13/19)100.0 (13/13)92.3133
Daniel RICHBRL65.4 (17/26)100.0 (17/17)102.355
Dougal HOWARDSTK64.3 (27/42)81.5 (22/27)100.330
Jayden SHORTRIC63.9 (23/36)65.2 (15/23)102.798
Jack ZIEBELLNTH62.8 (27/43)85.2 (23/27)113.3-27
Caleb DANIELWBD58.6 (17/29)88.2 (15/17)89.7145
Luke RYANFRE58.5 (24/41)75.0 (18/24)94.7124
Isaac CUMMINGGWS56.4 (22/39)81.8 (18/22)93.3-1
Jake LLOYDSYD51.2 (22/43)100.0 (22/22)112.7133

This table details the eleven players who have taken at least half of their team’s kick ins in 2021. As you can see, all are averaging at least 89.7 ppg (including Isaac Cumming, who started the year at $288K and looks like being a rare mid-priced winner). Only Ziebell is not available for your defensive line this year, and I dare say that if you based your backline around this list you’re probably not going to be disappointed at the end of the season.

MIDFIELDERS

No genuine fallen premiums in the engine room either, but there are a handful of under-priced options here worth investigating….

Cameron GUTHRIE (GEE), $583 700, avg 130, BE 55 – The unfashionable Guthrie often fades into obscurity alongside his more decorated teammates, but he is an incredibly talented footballer who should not be ignored. 43 touches against the Hawks last week is a good indicator of what Guthrie is capable of, including 10 clearances and trademark efficiency with ball in hand. Fresh off a breakout year in 2020 and more than capable of finishing as a top mid this year.

Rory SLOANE (ADE), $507 400, avg 119, BE 60 – At 31 years of age, you could excuse the Sloane Ranger for riding off into the sunset – but it seems he’s not ready to go just yet! Scores of 119, 97 and 141 this year, and an impending bonanza against the insipid Roos to look forward to this weekend. His record speaks for itself and at this price, you could certainly do a lot worse.

Try to stop TT from getting the footy. Go on, try.

Tim TARANTO (GWS), $463 300, avg 96, BE 91 – No Cogs, no de Boer, no Perryman, no Whitfield. Someone at the Giants has to get the ball; fortunately this is something that Timmy T is reasonably capable of doing. Yes, you’ll probably find his occasionally haphazard disposal a bit frustrating if you’re an owner – but when he gets so much of it, does it really matter?

RUCKS

Brodie GRUNDY (COL), $642 400 (-$5.8K), avg 122, BE 80 – The Set-And-Forgetters had a field day last week as the old firm of Grundy and Gawn smashed out twin 160s. That distinctly off-colour 70 in the first round now drops out of Brodie’s price cycle, and this could well be the cheapest we’ll see him for the rest of 2021. Gulp!

FORWARDS

Taylor WALKER (ADE), $406 100, avg 140, BE -35 – The flavour of the month is the Crows’ spearhead who is in the midst of one of the richest and most unlikely of late-career revivals. After averaging less than 70 for three consecutive seasons, Tex has belted out scores of 146, 143 and 130 to start his 13th season in the league, relishing the extra space that the rule changes have created for leading forwards. At this price you’re selecting him as a keeper for the remainder of the season, but with games against the Roos, Dockers and Hawks coming up, Walker could still be a very lucrative choice for your forward line.

Footballs must hate getting kicked by Tex.

Lachie FOGARTY (CAR), $382 600, avg 110, BE -12 – Already hands down the recruit of the season, Lachie has moved from the forward pocket at the Cats to become a valued attacking midfielder at the Blues, and his scoring has sprouted wings as a result. There is sizeable risk here, but Fog could hardly have been more impressive in piling up 163 against the Dockers’ vaunted young midfield last weekend.

Toby GREENE (GWS), $462 900, avg 99, BE 62 – See Taranto. Greene is Leon Cameron’s go-to guy when the Giants midfield is struggling. And boy, is it struggling right now! Form line is solid this year and has previously shown an enormous ceiling when playing in the middle. Risk/reward, etc.

Josh DUNKLEY (WBD), $581 500, avg 126, BE 77 – You’ve already got him, but just in case you’ve been comatose for the past month then this week is your last chance to get the Dogs’ ball magnet before he smashes through the $600K barrier.

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21 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 4, 2021”

    1. The 66 against the Eagles was uncharacteristic, lots of clangers in that one. Apart from that he’s been okay.

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  1. Thanks Chillo
    This is always a must read .

    So, I’m not sure I will go there but…

    Can Sloane turn back the clock, as Boak has done over the last few years. No Crouch brothers means maximum Mid time for Rory.

    He looks the goods early, Can he stay fit and retain the rage ?

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    1. The only question marks I have on him are fitness and the return of Matt Crouch possibly affecting his output. He is very cheap though and will go massive this week.

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  2. I have a few headaches.. I need to look at moving on Phillips hunter Clark & dow.
    Thought hunter was going to be a fantastic pod all the signs in pre season suggested so he had high CBAs and the right role not sure what changed but he’s now getting close too no CBAs.

    Dow will probably be traded to Chapman.
    Second trade being one of:

    TU : Phillips -> Impey
    TD : hunter Clark -> jiath/Bowes

    Or just sit tight

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    1. And to which of these two.
      I suspect jiath will win purely with the hype of his couple games and price but I’m not convinced. my head says Bowes has the best role and has kick ins for a potential keeper at D6.

      TU : jiath

      TD : Bowes

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    2. Same situation. Was going to trade Phillips, but deciding to hold now. He’s just played both of last years grand finalists, and Hawks have a fairly soft run for the next 2 months, so his scoring should improve.

      Things are getting much harder for the Saints over the next few weeks though, so I’m moving on Clark for Jiath, then using the extra cash to upgrade Dow to Cumming.

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  3. Mav.

    Have you considered Hunter Clark to CJ

    Then Dow to Impey.

    Both CJ and Impey have very SC friendly roles and great Byes for my side. They are both locked best 22 , I can’t say the same for Chapman unfortunately. He is still young and may make way when a few of our better players return. Fyfe and Logue maybe back this week.Tucker is also not far off.

    I’m thinking of getting both as they should get me through the Byes and both look like “last upgrade” type players.
    Impey may even finish top 10/12 Forwards and be worth retaining as a F6/7 loop.

    Worth a thought anyway.

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    1. I actually didn’t think of that for some reason I had in my head jiath was 380k and couldn’t make the move! I like this move alot better I think. Thanks Freo tragic!!

      I like impeys role running off halfback and think he can keep up a decent average week in week out. Can you tell me what jiaths role is like? Will he keep up his good start?

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      1. Actually the Impey and CJ move will be depending on sharp or Highmore getting back in the best 22 . I copped a donut after sharp and Highmore were dropped and Fyfe is my floating donut. Dow -> Chapman was going to give me that rookie onfield again via dpp.

        Will monitor the teams closely for the weekend hopefully Highmore or sharp get back in so can grab jiath and Impey.

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      2. No worries Mav.

        He seems to have Sicily’s intercepting role.

        He has been pretty exciting, Lots of pace and the guts to take on the oppo.

        Looks like he may retain the spot as Scrimshaw ( in this week) didn’t really negatively affect him. He didn’t do quite so well with Day in the side R1. (69) This was his first real crack at it though, he could of been a bit overawed.

        He is currently the 11th ranked Defender going at $3262 per point . This is incredible value and should see him top $450K.
        Not really the $150k required, but I can’t see too many defensive rookies making $150K this year!

        So with the lack of defensive rookies this year, I’m happy for him and J Clark to hold down D5/6.

        Best of luck whatever you decide.

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        1. I wouldn’t be banking on Sharp getting a recall anytime soon. I do have high hopes for Highmore though.

          The Saints were terrible and he wasn’t the worst the week before. I’m hopping he gets another gig.

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            1. Hey Derek

              I’m not sure if his being from Ballarat, will have any bearing on if he is to be named.

              The Lions have , J Berry and D Gardiner both likely ins.

              I would think Payne and maybe T Berry or D Robertson may come out.

              For Sharp to get another game, you would think they would have to drop A Chee. I just can’t see that happening at this stage.

              I’m happy to be proven wrong, if you know something solid that we don’t.

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  4. There is a big temptation to short Caleb Daniel and offload Koschitzke for Cumming and Jiath and call it good enough until the byes.

    Unlike Neale he’s not doing bad enough to justify this.

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