The Fallen Premiums – Rd 5

Written by Chillo on April 24 2019

Bunnies are hopping, buglers are warming up, and cows are starting to moo. If this is Supercoach, then it must be April!

Lots of premium stock here that, for one reason or another, suffered a bit of a rough start to the year. However all six of the players listed below look to be heading into an upswing in their form, which means now is the time for savvy coaches to jump!

DEFENDERS

Kade SIMPSON (CAR), $479 100 (-$91.2K), avg 83, BE 79 – Unfortunately when you get to the age that Kade is, any slight dip in form inevitably brings about whispers of the “R” word. But Simo has bounced back as Simo usually does, posting 107 and 92 in the past fortnight, and now comes with a hefty discount on his starting price. Acclimatising to life with his new backline buddy Newman was always going to take a bit of time, maybe it’s now? I just wish he’d bring the sleeves out again!

Crispy is the creme of the crop in round 6

Jack CRISP (COL), $464 800 (-$55.1K), avg 90, BE 83 – Definitely not regarded as the ‘steak knives’ anymore, Crisp is a bonafide premium rebounding defender who has had a bit of a yo-yo season so far. 116 at his last start against the Lions is a true example of his ability, and for a player capable of averaging 95+, it’s hard to ignore Jack at this price point.

Backing it up….
Jeremy Howe, $464K, BE 148
Jake Lloyd, $616K, BE 137
Lachie Whitfield, $616K, BE 134

MIDFIELDERS

Adam TRELOAR (COL), $561 700 (-$32.5K), avg 111, BE 93 – The big knock on Treloar’s game has always been his low disposal efficiency. Yet he can produce games like he did against Brisbane last weekend – 35 possessions at 80%, and a massive 150 points. His incredible gut running ability means he always finds plenty of the footy, and if he can keep using it this well, then Treloar is a lock for a top 10 mid spot at the end of the year. Strongly consider!

Dustin MARTIN (RIC), $492 900 (-$70.9K), avg 88, BE 111 – This is very much a speculative pick, and depends on whether you think Dusty’s elbow-induced one week sabbatical can be the turning point for his season. He was exceptional on his return against an admittedly mediocre Sydney team last week, with 25 touches and three goals. Fully capable of going at 110+ from here on in, but you’d be basing selection on the form of years past. Very well priced considering his potential output.

No skis, just footy – just the way we like it

Oliver WINES (PTA), $513 200 (-$15.1K), avg 91, BE 93 – Admittedly one of my favourite players to watch when he’s fit and firing, Ollie looked well short of a run in his first game after a much-publicised rehab from an off-season water skiing incident. Since then, Wines has put together scores of 95 and 110, and looks like he’ll once again be one of the main contested ball winners in the Power midfield. After that heavily interrupted pre-season, it would be ironic if this is the year that Wines finally becomes a recognised premium, but stranger things have happened…

Limbo land….
Jack Macrae, $654K, BE 173
Lachie Neale, $687K, BE 178
Nat Fyfe, $581K, BE 164

RUCKS

Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn are technically fallen premiums, but given that both currently have price tags north of $600K and break-evens of 130+, it doesn’t seem fair to include them here. For the very brave, Matthew Kreuzer ($432K) returned last week and looked good….but for how long?

FORWARDS

I did briefly consider including the much-maligned Josh Dunkley ($457K) here just to provoke discussion, until I read on the AFL website that he may be dropped this week! Ahhh Mr Magnets, you’ve done it again.

Tim KELLY (GEE), $491 000 (-$14.8K), avg 98, BE 115 – Kelly was frankly dreadful against the Giants in round 4, after suffering through an ankle complaint sustained the week prior. Bounced back against the Hawks on Easter Monday with a 129 point effort, and should be strongly considered if you don’t already have him. A couple of things to consider though; one, his high-ish BE means it’s not urgent to get him this week, and two, Kelly is a decent chance to cop the attentions of one M.Hutchings this weekend.

Forward thinking….
Sam Menegola, $463K, BE 168

Patrick Dangerfield, $618K, BE 165
Robbie Gray, $464K, BE 152
Chad Wingard, $443K, BE 144

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43 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 5”

  1. Laird?
    Without Milera I’ll certainly look to bring him in next week if he pumps out anything decent

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    1. I’m going to wait. Could get the Hutchings tag this week, and even if he scores well his price won’t change much. Break even will be very low next week, so I’m going to grab some cash now.

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      1. Do you think Eagles will do Hutchings on Kelly and Yeo on Dangerfield?

        Last year, Yeo got a really low score cause he got told to tag Dangerfield all day.

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  2. Can someone explain to me Jack Steele’s pricing ? His priced to ave at around 90 yet his actual ave is 100 , his tonned up 4 out of the 5 rounds with an 85 as his low! He started at 510k and has actually gone down in price and yet his ave suggests he should be upwards of 540k

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    1. Doesn’t compute… his starting value was priced at 94 pts… averaging 101.6 … his 3 game average hasn’t dropped below 97, so his 85 in R3 shouldn’t have decreased his price yet his price has dropped $5k… his average equates to a value of $553k.. the 85 drops out of calculation this week… definitely under price..

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    2. I would guess without looking at the numbers that he did his best in rounds 1 and 2? Because those rounds count for fewer price changes you can get some funky results this time of year if a player has gone massive early and then done poorly in round 3/4.

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    3. The simple answer is the blessed number. We started the season with a blessed number of 5483. That has now dropped to 5106. His scoring has mirrored these falls almost precisely and he has thus remained static in price. His BE is only 86 this week.
      The blessed number will fall more slowly now (it’s actually increased very slightly the last couple of weeks) due to lesser rookie impacts on the overall pricing pool. It tends to settle around 4950 for the year, so an ave. of 100 will tend to a price of $495k.
      All fully-priced player at season’s start therefore needs to improve their average by around 9% just to maintain their starting price.
      Steele should go up c. $20k over the next few weeks, but we will need to see an increase in output for bigger rises. One big score would do it, but it will tend back again if he can’t keep intermittently producing big ones.
      It’s all relative. Jake Lloyd’s price has done something very similar for precisely the same reasons.
      Hope that helps shed some light

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  3. Josh kelly is firmly on the radar. Typically scores 90-115 most weeks and then delivers a 160+ out of nowhere. Would love to get him on the cheap

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    1. Giants are the only good team that play Gold Coast twice. Kelly does like to go HAM on teams outside the top eight.

      Buyer beware: they play gc the second time in the last round is the only thing, so if the Giants don’t need a win Kelly might be on the bench in a blanket by 3 qtr time.

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      1. might only go up 130-140k imo
        holding my trades in higher regard than that this year
        recon hately next week might go up 250-300k
        better age , JS & roll
        made a few corrective trades early
        got me in to a good overall rank
        just need to be very cautious with rookie turnover now

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  4. I’m really struggling with Menegola. Seems to be locked onto a wing this year and only one really acceptable game so far. The only reason i may keep him is with Parfitt’s injury he may return to the midfield. In my mind, there’s no doubting his ability, but his role is what’s concerning me.

    T/U – Trade (Kelly most likely)

    T/D – Hold (Kelly still high BE, role may change with Parfitt’s injury)

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    1. Nice summation Dizzlekicks.
      I’m keeping him in my TECHteam because of the Parfitt injury. But also, he tends to come home like a steam train. ChooChoo to Chattanooga!
      Here’s hoping anyway …

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  5. Thanks chillo,
    Might keep my powder dry this week, looking at Fyfe next week, with the Approx $23,000 drop this week, $550,000 next week looks like great value IMO.

    Also Question without notice, more for the scoring anomaly’s, how did Crippa only get 110 points last week, 37 disposals/83%DE admittedly 6 Clangers and 3 frees against, love to know the coach’s thoughts

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    1. Smurfo.

      Not sure the exact stats but nearly 30 of Cripps touches were handballs. If he had kicked the dam thing a bit more, he would of scored 130+ easily.

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  6. Great stuff Chillo.

    Dear Mr Magnets
    Are you really considering dropping the Dunkmeister? Do you not recall how late last year, your doggies’ change in fortunes coincided with him playing in the guts as a soft/hard tag?
    So you then start this year playing him in a role that has far less impact on your fortunes, things inevitably start to go to shit and now you’re gonna drop him?! Are you gonna give that galah Gowers more midfield minutes?
    Hope that works out well for you.
    Yours
    A disappointed Dunks fan

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    1. Good day allsaints , I saw on some afl website that Dunks may get dropped and the reasoning was that trengrove would come in as back up to English and Dunks would be making way as he did some ruck work on the weekend.
      Not sure if there is any more concrete info as to why he would be left out, but I would be surprised if they did.

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    2. I like what you’ve done here allsaints. Nothing like a strongly worded letter 😉 Heres hoping the supercoach gods side with you

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    1. Well he has had some practice with oppo’s working out how to isolate him on the third tall going I50, starting with the clever Saints in the JLT 😉

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    2. Yeah but in all seriousness Libba has done to Dunks what Shiel has done to Devon Smith. Barring injuries, it’s not looking pretty for owners of either.
      Relieved to only have Dunks!

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      1. dunks best position for the dogs is fwd @ the moment
        a lot of ppl blame libba , but libba is a much better mid than dunkley
        i recon its actually bont playing fwd , that actually gave dunks his golden roll change last year by default ,
        bont going back into the mids has pushed dunks back into the fwd line , which is the most beneficial roll dunkley can play for the dogs ,
        he is a good fwd , its not a supercoach friendly roll ,
        but hey , @ the end of the day ,
        bevos not trying to win the 50k , he wants a flag

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    1. even as a fwd i’ve thought he hasnt looked right this year
      if he has been carrying a niggle , & does get dropped , that might be the reason

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  7. I’ll get about 35 thumbs down here, but, then again most of those ppl said don’t have Rocky in my team prior to Round 1. Fortune favours the brave. I’m trading out Clarke for Pearce Hanley. I watched him closely on the weekend and he looked to have his old run and dash back. He might make a fool of me, but, I’m expecting some bumper scores to come in the upcoming weeks

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