The Fallen Premiums – Rd 5

Written by Chillo on April 26 2018

Round 5 seemed to go on for about six years (or maybe it was days, I always get those two confused), and chances are you it left you with at least one problem child in the shape of a Buddy, Sicily (again) or the determinedly average Hibberd. And if you’ve somehow managed to avoid all that swill, you may even be getting to the point where you can afford that first upgrade. Whatever your situation, there is some prize stock on offer in this abbreviated build-up to Round 6.

DEFENDERS

The Blues went down, and Yeo’s score went up

Elliot YEO (WCE), $506 100 (-$55.2K), average 101, BE 32 – Look up “fallen premium” in the sacred Supercoach dictionary, and for this week at least, you’ll see a picture of the Yeo-yeo there. Four tons in five weeks, including a massive 150 two games ago, are offset by a baffling score of 27 in round three. That putrid effort drops out of Elliot’s price cycle this week, leading to a break-even lower than the mower setting at Optus Stadium. If you’ve got the dough at this early stage, then Yeo is a sure-fire top 10 defender.

 Michael HURLEY (ESS), $538 600 (-$24.9K), average 105, BE 75 – I’m not even a Bombers fan, but I was extremely frustrated with their style of play yesterday, specifically their preference for kicking backwards. They did it 18 times against the Pies (the AFL average is nine per game), which sucks for their supporters, but is great for the Supercoach prospects of their defenders. Hurley is a gun regardless, and is definitely worthy of a spot in your team, having also scored four tons in five games this year.

Backing it up…
Jeremy Howe, $462K, BE 142
Shannon Hurn, $485K, BE 135
Shane Savage, $497K, BE 133

 MIDFIELDERS

Zach MERRETT (ESS), $486 700 (-$113.9K), average 77, BE 64
 – Along with Yeo, Zerrett is undoubtedly the blue-chip bargain of the week. Concussion is a dangerous beast, but after meeting the wrong end of a Richie Douglas bump in round one, back-to-back tons vs the Power and Pies have Zach back on track. Won’t be this cheap again this year, so if you see him as a top 8 or 10 mid from here on, now is the time to jump.

“They’re not tagging me today!!!”

Jack STEVEN (STK), $473 900 (-$24.7K), average 100, BE 80 – Consistently inconsistent, Good Jack was on show against the Giants, powering his way to 121 points – although he’d love to have that final kick over again! I have to include the obligatory tag warning, but Steven has the massive ceiling which makes him a dangerous POD at only 3% ownership.

Limbo land…
Tom Mitchell, $642K, BE 211
Dayne Zorko, $485K, BE 165
Patrick Dangerfield, $669K, BE 154
Jack Macrae, $603K, BE 152

RUCK

Jarrod WITTS (GCS), $487 400 (-$30.9K), average 102, BE 76 – He was the bargain buy of the year in the rucks last year. Witts has been largely ignored in 2018, but has continued on his good form by posting three tons in five games. If you’ve lost patience with Goldy’s struggles or want to give Sauce the flick, Witts presents a reliable alternative at a comparable price.

Timberrrr….
Ben McEvoy, $477K, BE 156
Stefan Martin, $533K, BE 133

FORWARDS

Jack GUNSTON (HAW), $466 100 (-$8.7K), average 95, BE 78 – While we all fret over our malfunctioning forward lines, The Gun is just quietly getting it done, again. He’s a ‘boring’ choice, but maybe that’s a good thing right now, hmmm? Goes down to the Hawk’s fortress in Tassie this weekend to take on the Saints – I can think of worse fixtures for a prospective trade-in.

Allegedly not a spud. Information that could have been brought to my attention three weeks ago!

Kane LAMBERT (RIC), $453 600 (-$18.9K), average 86, BE 27 – Ugh. Yeah, go on, have him. I’m not bitter at all. After doing his best potato impression for the first three rounds, the hard-running Lambert has burst to life with back-to-back tons, including a BOG performance on Tuesday night against the Dees. Comes with handy DPP status and, thanks to his more illustrious teammates, absolutely no chance of being tagged.

Forward thinking….
Josh J Kennedy, $514K, BE 167
Toby Greene, $515K, BE 153
Michael Walters, $513K, BE 130

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33 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 5”

  1. Excellent, but can’t go back to the alleged spud. He burned me once.
    Wot no Deledio, wot no Deledio?
    Lids has a BE of -26 and if he can stay fit is surely top 8 FWD material. I’d feel more comfortable with him than either Gunston or Lambert.

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    1. I can’t really recommend Lids as a trade target, for obvious reasons. He’s in great form though, and there might be a bit of a spiel about him in one of the articles posted later today….

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    2. Agree with Chillo, Deledio definitely wasn’t classified as a ‘Premium’ this year, so technically he can’t be a ‘Fallen Premium’ either.

      Great work Chillo. I think the biggest problem this week is going to be deciding if any genuine rookies are worth culling early to bring guys like Yeo or Merrett. Or are the downgrade targets too tempting to pass up?

      You’d probably want to jump on Yeo first, his B/E is only 32, whereas Merrett’s is 64. Merrett is still only $486k, so, for a MID premium, you’d happily wait 1 week to get him for somewhere around $500k (which is about what he’d be if he scored about 110 this week).

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      1. Merrett is great value. The problem for me is I only have two mid spots left, and one of those is obviously reserved for Danger. So the question is whether Merrett is a better option than MCrouch, Oliver, Macrae, Pendles etc. I don’t think he is.

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        1. I have had Zerrett from the start, but if I could have my time (hindsight) I would like MCrouch or Oliver in my side.

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            1. Who scores more from here on out? Zerrett or mcrouch?

              Then more food for thought, If Crouch does get named this week, can you bring him in or will you wait till he bottoms out in price (BE 206, I think)? If you brought in Zerrett this week, how many more points would you be better off by seasons end?

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  2. Im really torn about merrett. He looks too good to pass at his current price but Im pretty keen to free up as much cash as possible for danger when he bottoms out in the nrxt couple of weeks.

    As a bombers a supporter Ive been puzzled by hurleys great sc scores this year, he is still getting a ton of ball but his decision making has been putrid.

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    1. It’s a shame his BE is so low this week. Am gonna have to pass on the Zerret ticket with other issues that are priority. Should be right for Danger next week tho. With his BE over 150 am hopeful his price won’t rise!

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    2. It’s a shame. I’m tempted but I don’t think he’s an essential top 10 mid. I think he should go near 100-110 per game from here out, but is that honestly enough or is he just an expensive cash cow who is only going to make 80k?

      Certainly cheap, but I worry if I trade him in I would be a) disappointed and b) stuck with him at m7 or m8

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  3. traded out hibbard last week for mirra , played murray on field , got about the same score & pocketed 300k , bringing in yeo & guelfi this week for venebles & bonner , with 520k to spend next week itll be danger in for dom barry or uniake , takes me down to 22 trades , only 7 more rookies to upgrade & no injury prone , or under performing players in my team & Christensen my only mid pricer , im pretty confident of a strong run home

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    1. Gonna wait until the byes to pick Yeo up. Has some really tough games over the next four/five weeks and feel there is better value elsewhere (Pts/$). His 150pts will fall out of his pricing next week, so I figure he’ll go down again with one bad score, dramatically if he has a couple.

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  4. Yeo is always a mystery for me. He is flying at the moment but he does have the odd shocker. Plus the defender rookies are playing nicely. I will pass at the moment.

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  5. Merrett in this week, Oliver next week.

    It’s time to start upgrading, especially with most of our rookies about to hit fattened status all at the same time.

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  6. He is. Just did some number crunching …

    Going back to FD’s magic number at the start of the season, which I think was 5497. Well, it is now 5127, down from 5133 last week.
    Zerrett = 6304 (priced at $486.7k)
    Yeo = 5011 (priced at $506.1k)
    If Zerrett can ave. 110 from here, his price won’t lower again and will tend to his mean price of $563,970. Even a 100 ave. will see a consistent rise to $510k+
    Yeo on the other hand MUST ave. 100 every week to increase a mere $6k, at today’s magic number. Further, the magic number is ever decreasing (to cover rookies swelling prices), so his eventual overall increase will be less than that. Any sub-100 scores will see a subsequent drop in price if not immediately followed by the matching 100+ score.

    If I was going to buy one of them I know which one I’d go for.

    Good luck

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    1. Hi Mate!

      I think what you mean by the magic number is not what I mean by the magic number. I have data showing the magic number never changes during a year. (If you have data showing otherwise for the same meaning of magic number I would love to see it!) The magic number plugs into the price change formula used to calculate price changes…that was redundant. Anyways, I suspect you mean that the dollar cost of a point goes down over time, which it does, but that’s actually something different. Love to see the math behind how you are getting your numbers, since I might be able to steal, I mean use it, in some way. 🙂

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      1. Hi Father
        I do it based on last two scores and the BE that SC have set for a player, which must be based on their current price. They are all slightly different because their BEs are rounded to the nearest whole number.
        I then average it out across the 50-odd players on my watchlist.
        eg Taranto – last two weeks 116, 88 and BE=39, price = $415k, so
        Magic number = 415/((116+88+39)/3) = 5123.457
        The average across the 50-odd players I am looking at is 5126.915. Last week it was 5131.85842. I never include rookies in the calculations as they are preset and skew the result. The margin of error comes from their rounding of BEs and pricing to the nearest $100, but a sample of 56 should get me very close.
        I then use the revised magic number to calculate projected scores and pricing for the next three rounds based on weighted averages (don’t ask!! ;))
        Hope that helps in some way, shape or form. Feel free to steal if you can give us even more golden nuggets.
        Many congrats on your SC performance to date by the way. Awesome effort.

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        1. Thank you!

          Ah, as I thought. You’re actually putting in the time and effort to figure out a way to do projections based on recent data, while I shudder and grab a beer every time I think about doing that, and stick to my trusty spreadsheets and historical data. Good on ya! 🙂

          Would you please do me a favor and not call it the magic number though? It is indeed something different than the magic number that goes into the price change formula, and I worry people will get confused. That term was in use before I came along, probably from AFL Fantasy. Pretty sure the Traders have referenced it….

          Maybe that’s the “Blessed Number”?

          Thanks for the explanation!

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          1. Was thinking more “blasted number”, since it ensures I procrastinate from getting any work done for a good hour, usually on a Monday morning.
            But let’s go with “Blessed Number” as it does help make more informed decisions.

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  7. Is it worth downgrading Parker to Merrett?
    Parker is off form and I want to avoid the trade but I dont know much about his history.

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    1. Not sure. The mrs is holding on to him for now. There has been talk on here that his relatively poor recent scores are the result of JPK’s drop in output.
      A tough call to make, but the safe option would be to hold him for now and wait for one of MCrouch, Danger, Dusty or Titch to bottom out.
      Danger should be at his lowest next week and MCrouch at least a week after his return game. That would give you enough time to check if it’s just a blip (then hold) or a worrying trend (then trade).

      Hope that helps. Difficult to say any more without knowing your entire MID set-up.

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      1. I think it’s definitely the JPK issue, but between JPK and Hanners there is a lot of grunt lacking from the Swans midfield st present.

        Parker will come good, but it might be too long a wait.

        The real question is which mids is there no question over.

        Zerrett looks ok now but that’s ONLY because he is down to $480k. Danger and Dusty are still bleeding cash, Duckwood is losing money. Titch is set for a big dive, Kelly isn’t even playing, Crouch is out, Zorko has slumped Pendles looks past it, Macrae will drop this week.

        The big 4 are still set in concrete Fyfe, Danger, Dusty, Titch. Everyone else is a lottery.

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        1. Totally agree on the four. You’d think at least three, maybe even four, of Crouch (give him a couple of weeks), Oliver, Macrae, Cripps and Coniglio (to Kelly if he comes good and you have the luxury of spare trades late on) will be Top8 from now to season’s end. The key will be to pick them up when their price is right.
          Having urgent flog, omission and injury issues in your FWD line doesn’t help the planning much though. If Fritsch doesn’t play this week I’m copping a donut. No way around it sadly.

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    2. I have Parker too. Was bragging about the pick after round 1, but not so much now haha. He’ll come good. Hes got the ceiling and is just as likely to come out this week and score well. Personally I’d focus on upgrading rookies and bringing extra premiums.

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