The Fallen Premiums – Rd 7

Written by Chillo on May 8 2019

It’s not a new idea, but I’ll raise it again anyway: Supercoach needs to introduce a Trades Joker card. Once a year, each player can use their card to make more than their usual allotment of trades – say for one round of the coach’s choosing, it’s possible to make up to a maximum of four trades. You could use it if you got absolutely smashed by injuries one week, potentially saving your season from ruin. Or you could use it tactically, like this week where you want to get the bubble rookies because future cash cows seem scarce, but you also want to pick up some tasty Fallen Premiums. Being able to take two rookies and two premiums would be very handy right now! Tell me I’m wrong.

DEFENDERS

Jeremy MCGOVERN (WCE), $443 500 (-$39.6K), avg 90, BE 48 – I readily admit that Gov is a favourite amongst the Fallen Premiums. Like most intercept defenders, he can have quiet games when forced to be more accountable, so from a Supercoach perspective it’s important to catch him at the bottom of a price cycle. Back to back tons suggests that time is now, with the Eagles machine slowly whirring into gear in 2019.

Just quickly: Rory LAIRD (ADE), $531 500 (-$56.1K), avg 99, BE 93 was here last week and just about hit his BE on the nose, so here he is again. Still great value for a permanent resident of the House of Elite Defenders.

Backing it up….
Lachie Whitfield, $575K, BE 206
Jake Lloyd, $587K, BE 136

MIDFIELDERS

Note: the four mids listed below are all elite scorers. They also all have less than 4% ownership. Here’s your ticket for the Catch-Up Train!

Scott PENDLEBURY (COL), $543 500 (-$18.5K), avg 106, BE 54 – If, like me, you’d written Dependlebury off after a series of annoying injuries in recent times, then it might be time to reconsider. The reintroduction of Beams to the Pies midfield has helped freed up Pendles, and he has posted scores of 138 and 127 in the past fortnight. Not suggesting he’ll get back to his halcyon 120+ days, but the Pies skipper is more than capable of being a top 10 mid this year; his career record alone demands your consideration. The Pies get Carlton, Saints and Sydney in their next three games.

Is it still too early to makes jokes about this yet? It is? Alrighty then.

Elliot YEO (WCE), $533 000 (-$52.5K), avg 98, BE 64 – The good news about Yeo is that he has done almost exactly what we expected him to so far this year – start slow after an injury-interrupted pre-season, then begin to dominate in the second month of footy. Very nicely priced after that slow start, the return of Gaff from suspension also means that Yeo is less likely to attract a tag now. Huge POD value at only 3% ownership!

Andrew GAFF (WCE), $549 000 (-$38.4K), avg 107, BE 92 – And here’s the other half of the Weagles dynamic midfield duo. The indefatigable Gaff gave a wingman clinic against the Suns last week, racking up 35 touches and 154 points. Has shown some signs of rust with his disposal efficiency early on, but always sees plenty of the footy, so his scoring should improve as he regains touch. The Eagles have a nice run of games heading into their bye, so looking west is a wise move at this time of year!

Mitch DUNCAN (GEE), $534 200 (-$42.3K), avg 105, BE 71 – No-one will pick Mitch….no-one ever does….but he’ll just go on piling up the points anyway. While everyone’s been fuming over Danger and frothing over Tim Kelly, Duncan has compiled five tons in seven games, and has the Cats’ cupcake draw to look forward to over the next month. The other thing is apart from a foot complaint a couple of years ago, Mitch has hardly missed a game since his rookie days. I’m sure his 1498 owners have no complaints.

Just quickly: Gary ABLETT (GEE), $553 800 (-$26.8K), avg 99, BE 65 was going to be an honourable mention just for old time’s sake, but the Master finally managed to pop his suspension cherry this week. GAZ LIVES! Like Laird, Nat FYFE (FRE), $578 200 (-$39.9K), avg 116, BE 87 was also here last week, and is still excellent value after a polished 124 against the Crows in probably the ugliest game of footy you’ll see this year.

Limbo land….
Zach Merrett, $597K, BE 169
Patrick Cripps, $651K, BE 165
Jack Macrae, $582K, BE 149

RUCKS

2007: the last known sighting of the Hoff’s chin.

Justin WESTHOFF (PTA), $402 300 (-$147.2K), avg 79, BE 36 – It’s been a rocky ride so far this year, but it’s high time to Fear The Beard again. After an ice cold month of footy, the Hoff has switched back on to post 92 and 108 in his past two starts. Insanely priced for a guy who put out a three figure average last year, but the big attraction here is the DPP status. Link him up with the likes of Patrick Bines – 2019’s favourite loophole man – and suddenly you’ve got priceless ruck coverage through the byes and beyond. Final thought: it’s only $80K to swap Drew to Westhoff….

Timberrrr….
Brodie Grundy, $659K, BE 144

FORWARDS

Sam MENEGOLA (GEE), $419 400 (-$123.7K), avg 82, BE 60 – Without doubt, ‘Gola is one of the most frustrating bonafide premiums in the game. He will always start the season over-priced due to his rollercoaster scoring, so in a similar vein to a key position player, the trick is to pick up Sam at the right time. That putrid pair of fifties he produced against the Giants and Hawks finally disappears from his scoring cycle this week, so his price tag has bottomed out and now is the time to pounce. Just a gentle reminder that Menegola has averaged 100 across each of the past two seasons.

Tom HAWKINS (GEE), $504 500 (-$48.4K), avg 97, BE 73 – Key position forwards are generally the lepers of Supercoach, but the Tomahawk is a different beast. Hawkins has actually become a relatively consistent scorer for someone in his position, which is not all that surprising considering he usually receives the ball from the likes of Danger, Selwood, Ablett and co. As mentioned above, Geelong has a pretty cosy run of opponents leading into their bye, and my bet is Hawkins goes large in at least one of those games.

Just quickly: Josh DUNKLEY (WBD) $479 500 (-$36.8K), avg 93, BE 54 appeared here last week. He responded with an equal team-high 16 centre bounce attendances and a massive 134 points, rewarding his patient owners. Still represents fantastic value for those prepared to punt on Dunks keeping that inside mid role.

Forward thinking….
Patrick Dangerfield, $542K, BE 198
Isaac Heeney, $511K, BE 158
Michael Walters, $518K, BE 150

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25 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 7”

  1. Ok, I need 4 trades this week!

    Alas it is not to be. With enough cash in the bank, heaps more trades than this time last year, some nicely fattened cows and being within catching distance of the top 10 (less than 30pts/week), the quandary is whether to:
    – Double downgrade, risk losing more ground to the top echelon of overall scoring, but have enough cash to be super aggressive over the coming weeks into the byes, or
    – Go one up/one down to try and keep closing the gap on the elite-scoring pack, but will afford a less aggressive few weeks.

    I feel if the rookies are there, we need to take them. By this time last year 80% of the decent rookies ($130K+ generators) were on, or had already bubbled. They will become more scarce as the season goes on. History tells us that.

    Hmmmm, given that Chillo would like 4 trades this week and alludes to the fact that a heap of us might, I guess a lot of us are in the same boat?! Thoughts community?!

    Thanks Chillo, awesome piece again. I can see why the Hoff grew a beard!!

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    1. I am guessing Hately will answer that question for you. If he’s not named, one up, one down is probably best.

      Lovely write-up Chillo. I have just about decided on Yeo.

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    2. If you got in the Richmond rookies and ROB, I’d get in a fallen mid this week, fyfe, bont, macrae etc at the expense of Walsh (can’t risk losing that money)and worst possible rookie to answerth.
      If not I’d double downgrade. Answerth and Corbett. Corbett for the byes round 14 will be very helpfull.

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    3. I don’t think you should trade at all AS.

      The fact that you & I have a match up in one of the top leagues is purely incidental.

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        1. I’m in the same boat allsaints, I want to double downgrade to get the cash generation but am undecided. May mean losing 50 points this week but gaining 150-300k in the future.

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  2. Team sheets regarding rookie selections will dictate my trades this week. I will definitely ne favouring the double down this week.
    I was very close to starting yeo this year, with interrupted pre season just couldn’t. He is pretty much my next mid upgrade, he has looked awesome last 2 weeks

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  3. Thanks Chillo, great write up. Thinking of the Bont as an inclusion this week, tossing up between him or Macrae, (I know your not keen on Mr magnets) Yeo looks very tempting but both him and Gaff have the dreaded round 13 bye. Looking for a top 6 Mid from here on in, already have Cripps and Neale. Any suggestions?

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    1. Think the Bont is the best choice of all the Doggies. Impacted less by the MID/FWD swing than any other … a beast and an accumulator.

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      1. Interesting stuff from the AFL website this morning on centre bounce attendances with Bont second to only Cripps in the whole comp. Definitely his year this year. Macrae always great for consitency too.

        From AFL.com.au
        Tim English (151 attendances), Marcus Bontempelli (119), Tom Liberatore (112), Jack Macrae (111), Mitch Wallis (80), Josh Dunkley (58), Bailey Smith (30), Josh Schache (18), Billy Gowers (10), Bailey Williams (8), Jackson Trengove (3), Zaine Cordy (3), Toby McLean (2), Lachie Hunter (2), Aaron Naughton (1)

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        1. my apologies, that should say second to Cripps for centre clearances. Bont clearly the dogs number one mid for attendances now we have some better mid/fwd players

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  4. Great write up as always!

    This may sound odd, but your desire for more trades and the reason why is evidence that they have the trades right currently. There is an “always leave them wanting more” sort of effect, and if you felt like you had enough it would be too easy. Games are about choices and the more the choices matter the better. The choices mattering a lot is what you are describing! As someone once said “having is not always as pleasing as wanting.”

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    1. That’s a great point FD. And that’s what keeps us coming back!
      I think what you say about ‘starting with your rookie selections’ at season’s outset also applies for the remainder of the season. If you nail 12/13 downgrades, you are very likely in a strong(er) position as the season draws on. Get those initial rookies and your downgrades right will afford you far more luxury trades come the pointy end.
      Retain the focus on cow-hunting all season.
      If the bubble boys are there this week, I think I’ve just talked myself into a double-downgrade!

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    2. Forgive me if i’m wrong, but he never asked for more trades, just the ability to use more than 2 in a week, once a season, when you get that nightmare week of injuries etc….

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  5. Worst start in Supercoach ever for me. 3 very bad captains choices so I have to play catch up and be agressive going forward:
    TU Bont + Westhoff
    TD Yeo + Darling
    I know Many dont trust Darling but he is so cheap and I have nothing to lose. Please comment

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    1. Can you afford Yeo/Hoff? Yeo is looking likely to hit some serious form. I’d consider Gaff aswell. Decent POD potential if you’re looking to take a risk.

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    2. The season is not 1/3 done yet Jeannot.

      If it’s just VC/C choices that have fu3ked you, maybe take a risk on a low%VC (eg KPP FWD) but back it up with a Grawndy/Cripps/Neale/Fyfe-type. Having a high % fallback position will help.

      Rage trading will likely make things worse. If you’ve started a few underperforming premos (we all have), then HOLD them in the hope they come good. Catch a falling star by all means, but at this point it is far from over.

      Personally I think Yeo, Fyfe and Bont are currently the best underpriced options there are. Lloyd and Whitfield will be cheaper soon too. Make plans to have the cash to move when they bottom out. Focus on all the big point scorers by line first. You’ll be amazed, how quickly things change.

      Westhoff could be a great tactical pick if you have ROB/Bines. Darling could be a great pick, but has the R13 bye and no DPP. But these are moves I’d be making much later in the year. Eg if ROB does get dropped when Sauce is ready, then by all means trade him to The Hoff or ANO RUC/FWD, but why do it now. With so many OUTs at PTA, it’s hard to know how the cards will fall (roles).

      All I’m thinking is, nail your optimal up and downgrades for a few weeks and then reassess. There’ll still be another 12/13 rounds to go!!

      Good luck!

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      1. Thanks guys. I am just pissed off because I did so much research preseason and still stuffed up. Lets see what we can salvage. I still have to be competitive in the leagues.

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        1. I’m with you jeannot, having an ordinary start this year, my structure is no worse than most good teams but my chosen premos have ave 100 instead of the 120s, as allsaints pointed out a long way to go and my motivation is to try and work my way up the standings for the rest of the season , make good decisions!

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  6. Which mid should i trade in, a budget of 580k odd, already have Cripps, Neale, Fyfe, the crouch brothers and rookies

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