Trade Talk – Rd3

Written by Schwarzwalder on March 31 2019

One of the busiest trade weeks of the year…….the corrective trade week.  Make sure you’ve got all the right rookies before looking to ‘correct’ any of your premiums.  Who needs to be ‘corrected’ from your team?  Who has to come in before Rd3?

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239 thoughts on “Trade Talk – Rd3”

    1. Hi Deil Niamond

      I also have Martin and 50 / 50 at this stage.
      Had a great preseason and was acceptable in first game of season . Tagged by Greenwood in 2 nd game and Richmond were well down. Will he and Richmond bounce back. Never been dependant on tackles to score.
      I also have 6 proms in mid so trading for mid forward like Kelly will enable me to field Butters, Walsh and Constable and have Kelly in forward line and bench Setters with switch
      TU Martin
      TD Kelly

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    2. I’m only keeping him cause Heeney looks worse Heeney > LDU, and Watson to Butters gives $353k and every juicy cow. Was going to use Watson as loop but can’t afford two non cows with Bines as c loop.
      Set and forget now for a few weeks hopefully.

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  1. Would normally never consider trading premiums, but held Hibberd until the byes last year, and ended up trading him for 200k loss. Hmm…

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  2. Kade Simpson has been s**thouse this year. Think Newman is affecting his output. What do I do?

    TU – Trade for Whitfield/Crisp/Other good premo def
    TD – Hold, the only way is up

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    1. I’ve got him too. The only good game he’s had since Newman arrived was JLT2, and that was the game where Nic completely went missing. Coincidence?
      It’s one thing not to trade premiums and conserve trades, it’s another to refuse to admit that you made a mistake. At this stage, he’s gone.

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      1. Newman may well be affecting his output, as Docherty did, but he still averaged 94 in 2017 (the last time he played alongside Docherty).

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        1. True, but Doc is a different sort of player to Newman. The fact that Nic and Kade are both left footers means they run similar lines and wind up overlapping a lot.
          It’s early days and maybe they’ll adapt, but in the meantime I can’t wait for that to happen while there are other defenders scoring so well.

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  3. Dunkley, hmm… 20 disposals last week and 18 this week, in wins which is even more concerning! He’s a long way away from that 28 disposal midfield bull of last year.

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    1. I don’t even think it’s a bad role for today anyway. He was in the centre bounces and around the ball alot of the time but it looked like he simply couldn’t get his hands on the ball. Frustrating but i think i’m going to hold him for now. Has Gold Coast this week too.

      Heeney and Dunkley will both be held for mine also because i don’t rate any of the other forward premos to potentially bring in (already have TK). Boak is the only one that would slightly interest me but i don’t want to bring him in without seeing how Ollie Wines affects his role and output .

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    1. You need to ask if you expect the premo you are trading out will end up back in your team by seasons end. Heeney is struggling but he will end up in my side at season end – so I will save the trade. With Martin, there are many more options and Dusty is no sure thing to finish top 8 mid

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  4. Elliot yeo worth persisting with or cut my losses? I have $100k in bank so can jump to anyother mid. My other prem/mid price mids are fyfe, m crouch, cripps, libba

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  5. Haven’t used a trade yet and have been extremely pleased/lucky with my rookies and therefore they don’t require a trade

    Thumbs up:
    Yeo to fyfe/macrae/neale
    Heeney to dalhaus

    Thumbs down:
    Yeo to rockliff
    Heeney to boak

    Appreciate the help!

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  6. After making a late decision to bring Gawn in before season started I had to change my FWD structure and snuck Jack Higgins in at F4.

    Boak is looking tasty now that he’s back in the guts. I’m a few k short so the only way I could possibly upgrade Higgins to Boak in is to downgrade Collins.

    After his game today though that may not be a great idea.

    TU: Downgrade Collins to get Boak
    TD: Save trades and keep Higgins for future F7

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      1. I think the same Wighty, but if he’s not then there might be other issues.
        I have Ridley, awaiting selection results.

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  7. I have Dusty and I want him gone. my options are Tim Kelly who was on my shopping list from day 1 and I would move him forward when I trade out fwd rookies later. Other option is Rocky who was not on my list but his form is hard to ignore. Note – Rocky is $100k cheaper than T Kelly.
    T/U Tim Kelly
    T/D Rocky

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  8. I too have Martin and will probably trade him.
    Why?
    Well there are plenty of other option both cheaper and dearer.
    I wouldn’t get Sheed – not a top 10 mid at the end
    Rockliff – yes I am considering as he seems fit, is a proven premo and cheaper so $’s in the bank.
    Neale – I wouldn’t pay to much attention to his score this week as North traditionally gives up big scores to the opposition teams best midfielder like Fyfe the week before.
    If your going to trade now is the time to do it. Like footy tipping you need to be up with the leaders after the first few rounds.
    I finished just inside top 2K but could never trade in Macrae, Grundy or Lloyd as they were too expensive later in the season.

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  9. Mundy has been absolutely terrible, pumping out a massive 35 for me today, to go with a 73 last week. Just doesn’t look up to it anymore! Looking for a POD
    T/U – Boak
    T/D – Gresham

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  10. Hi all,

    Current squad:

    Backs
    Whitfield, Z. Williams, B. Smith, D. Moore, J. Clark, Duursma (Hore, T. Watson)

    Mids
    Oliver, Neale, Coniglio, D. Martin, M. Crouch, Liberatore, S Walsh, Constable (Butters, B. Scott, Gibbons)

    Rucks
    Grundy, Goldy (Bines)

    Fwds
    Danger, Heeney, T. Kelly, T. Greene, Setterfield, W. Drew (Burgess, Petruccelle).

    $115,400 in the bank..

    At this stage I think Heeney has to go, with all other options open..

    What would you do in my shoes?
    Parker, Rocky and Boak are looking attractive, or should I possibly look to get another premo Def such as Lloyd?

    Any and all feedback is welcome.

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    1. I would, trade Greene for Parker, swing Moore forward for Heeney and grab Newman.

      If you don’t like Newman, McGovern is on fire and under $500k and should seriously be considered.

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  11. Heeney’s output is no doubt a reflection on how Sydney are tracking at this early stage – I’m sure he will bounce back and be a decent long term option.

    Having said that, this round more than any is where massive price increases and drops become most significant.

    I’m looking at:
    Heeney -> Darcy Moore
    (provides flexibility for Fwd & Def cover)

    Tom Atkins -> Tom Rockliff (F6)
    (44 disposals last week and 37 this week)

    I think Danger and Tim Kelly are the only fwd premiums this year who have proven themselves and given a strong indication they will be top 6 at the end of the season.

    Trading out Heeney at least gives more time to assess who else is going to slot into the top 6 and make them a clear trade target without losing precious $$$

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    1. Had literally just played around with this! Can afford

      Heeney & Gibbons/Atkins
      OR
      Dunkley & Atkins

      To Moore & Rockliff..

      Leaves me with 2 rookie mids (Walsh, Constable, Butters & Scott)

      And 3 rookie fwds (Moore, Drew, Parker & Setterfield)

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      1. Matt –
        I like it.. seems like a few people are against it but think worst case scenario…

        If Heeney stinks it up, he’ll continue to fall in price before he goes up again.. at which point you can do a cheap upgrade and bring Heeney back in at a cheaper price from one of your rookies who is doing well now but might start to plateau after a few rounds (ie Parker/Drew, etc) in doing so, you might burn a trade or two. We have 30 trades, and mistakes get made.

        Again, that is worst case scenario.

        On the upside, you’ll have Moore & Rockliff who are going to increase a lot in value. They then become a stepping stone to a fallen premo later if you need come the byes, or can also provide really good bench cover when your finals come around.

        Pretty unlikely you’ll be able to afford bench cover as good as someone like Rocky or Moore come Rd 19

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  12. Hi everyone, I am very aware of the common logic to never sideways trade out premiums unless injured however with Heeney seeming to not playing midfield much and an apparent injury cloud. I am considering going Heeney to Worpel who is very underpriced if he continues to perform in his new role and use the extra 130k elsewhere.
    TU: Trade is worthwhile
    TD: Heeney will bounce back and ill regret trading him

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    1. Heeney to worpel will be $60k more expensive next week.

      Heeney has a worse score in Rd2 than Rd1 and will shed at least another $30k next week too, meaning probably $110k as a post Rd4 correction.

      Heeney is really showing that ankle injury. Meanwhile injuries at Hawthorn have just opened up even more mid time for Worpel.

      I have no doubt Heeney will come back, but by the time he does, the $60k gap could easily be $200k.

      Were Heeney’s scores reversed and he’d done much better in Rd2 than Rd1, I’d advise you to hold.

      Since they are not, I am trading him myself. Worpel is on my radar in case i cannot afford Dahlhaus in Rd4

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    1. Heeney has Carlton so I’d hold worst case from here on out he’s the 1oth ranked FWD and not worth a trade. Can you just go Mundy to Rocky?

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      1. Yes, easily go Mundy to Rocky, but that won’t get me both Dahlhaus and Newman next week.

        Watching the match, Heeney didn’t look great at all.

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        1. As a Carlton fan living in Sydney I’d love to see that but still I reckon back him in. If you can’t get Newman and Dahlhaus in this why get them next week you’ll be paying a premium for both and both are no guarantee to be top 10 in their respective positions?

          I love Newman I was all over him all preseason and had him in every team I made expect the final one and I was annoyed I didn’t have him for round 1 but round 2 which I think is close to his floor but his value is gone he’s 420k+ next week.

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          1. Why? I can trade Rocky and Dahlhaus easily this week.

            Or Rocky and Newman.

            Hell, Rocky and ANY player you care to name.

            However, it’s about strategy. Both Dahl and Newman will go up less than any decent bubble rookie. Even Rocky is only forecast a $50k rise. But since none of the mid rookies set for a big rise like LDU particularly interest me I’d rather grab Rocky now.

            Dahl is only going to go up as much as a “not setting the world on fire” type like Ben McKay or Michael Gibbons, so there is no urgency there, unlike grabbing the right rookie on the bubble who might go up $60-90k.

            So, the priority is stopping bleeding money, while bringing in people who are going to go up the most.

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            1. Arn’t you talking out bring in Newman or Dahlhaus after round 3?

              If your bringing them in this round then go for it but the money for Heeney is kinda irrelevant yes you can use a trade and take the cash that someone else is going to make from two strong games to start the season but who’s to say they continue this form. They could drop back to where we viewed them 2 weeks ago. To then trade them out again you’ve now used 2 trades (one to bring them in and one to trade them out) From doing SC people view trades at about 120k-150k being worthwhile so these players you bring in are they going to Net you 300k?

              I don’t hate you getting rid of Heeney. I’d love if everyone jumped off a guy who 50% of all SC coaches viewed as a lock F2. Sucks he’s about to drop a decent amount of coin but a 100 this week which against Carlton not impossible. Scores 100 this week drops 25k not great but not terrible.

              Just food for thought happy to have others opinion only way I can change mine by conversing with others 🙂

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        1. If you had to guess from round 3 to round 23 what rank Heeney will be as a FWD what do you think is his rank?

          I’d have him as at worst F6 at the absolute worst

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  13. Thinking of trading Greene to Parker to get his cash increase and points if needed. Could sleep better at night without Green. Shouldn’t waste a trade but potentially get an extra $250 with Parker. What do you think?
    TU yes
    TD no

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      1. Given Greene’s extended waits on injuries in the past he’s a sensible trade.

        Parker is on track for an $88k price rise this week.

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      2. This year’s usual rage trade suspects..Heeney, Dunkley, pretty happy with all the rookies too so only Greene really.

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      3. I’m in the same boat. Considering Greene, heeney or Petruccelle out for Parker. Not sure who if any are with the trade. Also have Burgess who I’m considering trading for Rozee. Had him in for him till just before rnd 1 whee i swapped to Burgess. Kicking myself but not sure it’s worth it either.

        Love some thoughts…

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  14. What to do with Heeney and Mills

    Dahlhaus and Stewart have been good so far but I have Clark in DEF and the Danger-Kelly double up in the FWD Line. Worpel is someone that interests me as well but not sure what to do, need some help.

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    1. Darcy Moore fwd and Jake Lloyd def would address bye concerns, giving you one premium going up and one big price rise.

      You could also swing Heeney into the mids for Rocky and still afford McGovern down back (or Darcy Moore back), or LDU and Lloyd.

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      1. I made these exact trades as soon as Supercoach was opened for R3, lol. I fell for the Ol’ gonna get more midfield time line again with Mills and Heeney is playing deep forward which is killing his output. You also pocket 100k+ from the trades. Brought in Moore and Lloyd for Mills and Heeney btw.

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  15. Hate to sideways trade premos but Mundy has to go – was unsure about starting him anyway. Have got most of the good rookies already except Parker, so looking to make 2 corrective trades and go:

    OUT: Mundy, Collins
    IN: Lloyd, Parker

    TU: Good corrections
    TD: Hold Mundy and just use 1 trade to get Parker in for Balta

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    1. Collins got a good score this week, concussion last week.

      Should be a solid defender.

      However, these two trades look good to me.

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      1. Just so everyone’s clear – Collins’ concussion was in the last minutes of the game. He scored lowly because he was playing so deep. Was clearly given more licence to get involved this week.

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  16. G’day coaches, will Worpel be a top 6 FWD at season end? Didn’t start with him so not sure whether to bring him in or not.

    T/U – Top 6 – 8 forward, get him at current price
    T/D – Dubious pick, could slow output

    Thanks coaches!

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        1. Worpel will get more midfield time than Petracca , had both at start but got rid of Petracca after 1st round for Parker and upgraded Burgess to Newman, Petracca is a pretender to inconsistent and not enough tank too play quality time in midfield

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  17. Current Team, not sure what to do
    Worried about Heeney dropping in price but still back him to be a top 5 forward

    DEF: Whitfield, B.Smith, D.Moore, J.Scrimshaw, J.Clark, X.Duursma (S.Collins, M.Hore)

    MID: Cripps, Oliver, Fyfe, Coniglio, Rockliff, M.Crouch, D.Sheed, Constable (Atkins, B.Scott, Gibbons)

    RUCK: Grundy, Goldstein (J.Sweet)

    FWD: Dangerfield, Heeney, T.Kelly, Worpel, Setterfield, Drew (Petrucelle, Balta)

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    1. Back Heeney in unless they rest him due to injury. Gets an 8 day break and Carlton what more do you want for an underperforming premium.

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    2. If you back him to be a top 5 forward then any initial price drops are irrelevant as there’s no need to trade him out.

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  18. Can someone explain to me why everyone is on Heeney being a top fwd? He has no ceiling to catch up, who knows when he will get mid minutes, which he needs, and how bad is his ankle. Granted when he’s on he is very consistent, but when will that consistency kick in?
    Merrett last year came home strong but the damage was already done.
    I’m genuinely asking where this absolute faith comes from? in regards to him being a top fwd.

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    1. As a very popular fwd I’d hold him. But… Lloyd is a must have. I wouldn’t sideways heeney for another questionable fwd, but I think you need Lloyd asap if you don’t have him. And that’s the best way of getting him in.
      Can get heeney later on for 450k+ Lloyd, he’s not going anywhere albeit a little each way and will pop out a monster score soon.

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  19. Heeny is in trouble as are the swans. Trade out Heeny move Drew to FWD. line.

    Danger Kelly Worpel Moore Setters Drew (Parker petruecclle) No trades Needed

    Move LDU into the mids ….upgrade Ryan to Lloyd. 2 Trades lots of money in the bank with 16 rookies on field and bench about to surge in price.?

    Thoughts Please.

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    1. Put Setterfield on your bench (he butchrz footy… will be a big disappointment as weeks go on). Parker in everything and kicks goals. Gun forwardline i like it.

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  20. Is it worth trading out a non-terrible rookie for Matt Parker? I could trade out a forward or mid rookie for this, of which I currently have Walsh, Scott, Constable, Atkins, Butters, Gibbons, Setterfield, Drew, and Petruccelle.

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    1. I reckon Parker is almost worth the trade for the instant coin he’ll make, he’ll put up close to $100k over the next 2 weeks, and with one more solid score even more. But maybe not worth it for another rookie. If you’ve got an underperforming breakout pick maybe ditch them.

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        1. Greene -> Parker = Good trade.

          The rest of your rookies look like they will make enough cash if they keep playing to hold. We don’t need our team full of fast generating rookies. We can only trade out 2 a week and dont want them all maxing at the same time.

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          1. Fair point.

            But what would you say to the idea of bringing in LDU? 80 then 118 at under $200K is hard to ignore… dare I say it, it has shades of Cripps in 2015 about it.

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  21. Is it worth getting Constable in if I need to trade Walsh to get him or need two trades to upgrade Gibbons to Constable. Missed him by going super deep in MIDS and then running out of coin. Cripps, Fyfe, Dusty, MCrouch, Brayshaw, BCrouch, Libba, Walsh (Scott, Atkins,Gibbons) Only 5.5k ITB

    TU Worth it
    TD Not worth two trades for a rookie

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    1. Keep in mind that even though Constable might make more money than Walsh (due to having a comparable average and lower starting price), assuming they post the same average from here on out, Walsh will still end up being the higher-priced of the two, because 75 % of a player’s price is determined by their *existing* price, and the effect of this is cumulative. Walsh will therefore give you more money once you eventually downgrade him.

      Of course, downgrading Walsh to Constable would give you extra cash now, in addition to earning more money over the long term, but is that enough to warrant a trade?

      I’d fully endorse Gibbons to Constable if you could do it in one trade, but I’m not sure it’s worth two.

      At the risk of sounding crazy, you could always downgrade Dustin Martin… you’d free up $440K now, would make another $250-300K later, and, the way these two have been scoring so far, probably wouldn’t even lose any points. This is probably the sort of thing I would do, although I’ve never been known for playing conservatively.

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      1. My thought process would more be to downgrade Dusty to Rocky or Sloane (Bit more security then do the second trade of Gibbons to Constable. Dusty is the biggest head scratcher in the side.

        Other question marks are Heeney who I’m more than likely going to hold and Billings as well. Billings burnt me last year so two 80’s im not even that mad with especially seeing as he hasn’t kicked a goal yet. 28 touches in both games is a delight to see if he can just be a touch more damaging. Really its just the toss up of downgrading Martin and then if it is worth the second trade of gibbons to constable. Or move on to round with 30 trades in the bank which is never a bad thing 🙂

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      2. Hmm. but the math of Walsh vs Constable ignores the $83k invested elsewhere.. if invested wisely, there are additional points and $$ to be earned.

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        1. I did touch on that in the following paragraph, concluding with the question “is that enough to warrant a trade?”.

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    1. Upgrade another rookie or sideways Walsh? I’m liking the look, no goals, only 20 disposals 3 tackles. Looks like he might have developed a decent floor.

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  22. Merrett owners:

    Has his 108 on the weekend earned him a reprieve?

    TU: Yes, for now.
    TD: No, he’s still fired.

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  23. My trades for this week so far:

    Heeney > Boak

    &

    Hurn/Newman > Whitfield: Kinda tied up between Hurn and Newman and would like to know your guys’ opinions on this trade but we will come back to this option in a bit.
    OR
    Burgess (bench) to Non-playing rookie for Dangerfield VC Loophole: Danger imo is a massive loophole and captain option this week with Danger averaging 138.4 points in the five games he has played against Adelaide with a ceiling score of 158 and a floor score of 111! If he doesn’t score a good captain score I got Macrae as C who should go huge because he is averaging 130.6 from the seven games he has played against Gold Coast with a ceiling score of 189 and a floor score of 93.

    -The second trade I will choose to take will depend on the confirmed lineups
    for this coming week. That’s when I can get a clear picture in terms of how I
    should use my last trade before the start of the upcoming round.

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  24. Hi all. This is my first season playing AFL Supercoach and I don’t really know what to do. I’ve started okay, managed to score 2273 this week after a poor Rd1.

    I assume the early rounds are about cash generation? But still trying to get a decent score. Was planning to go;
    Heeney – Bruce
    Jones – Rockliff
    Am I right in thinking Rockliff might be a potential keeper? Or am I missing something? At 400k he’d be a steal yeah? Also Bruce with a BE of -36 and also 2 decent scores makes him a sensible buy? Yes/No?

    As I said I really don’t have much of a clue. Are there any obvious trade ins? This guy Luke Davies-Uniacke has a -83 BE! Does he have good Job Security? If so he should be a must trade in yeah?

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    1. I would avoid Bruce. Saints just won two games and he’s a Key Position FWD who relies on goals for a score. Were there any FWD rookies you missed? Setterfield Drew Parker? Darcy Moore is also worth it in my opinion.

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    2. If he can keep his current form up, job security shouldn’t be an issue for LDU. Then again, he is coached by The Scott Twin™, so you never know…

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    3. Jeremy,

      When Rockliff is in form he is a supercoach gun, the problem with him is his injury record. He has not seen a full season in at least the last 3 years (possibly more).
      A lot of people (including me) will stay away from him for this reason, however if he stays fit he is an absolute bargain.

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    1. As of Saturday he was 50/50 according to Cameron. Cameron joked that Greene would play with a broken leg if they left it to him.. so they are watching him closely.
      But, Greene only suffered calf tightness with less than 10 mins to go in R1. It had nothing to do with his injuries from 2018.
      The new stadium in Perth is noted for the hardness of the surface .. I suspect that was the main reason they held him over..
      I don’t know, but I would not be surprised to see him line up in R3.

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    2. I started Greene last season, and the amount of times I heard ‘he’s 1 week away’, only for him to miss 2-3, was ridiculous. Can’t trust anything from the Giants regarding injuries.

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      1. Yep, I will be trading Greene out if he is not named this week.
        But it means I have to keep Martin , cos I’m getting rid of Yeo.

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  25. For those thinking of trading Yeo, just remember Gaff returns this round. While I think in the long run it will help his scores I fully expect Collingwoods midfield to destroy ours. There will be more pain before he rises.

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  26. Out: Ridley & Heeney
    In: Lloyd & Miers (already have Parker)

    Llllloooooyyyyyyd!!!

    I feel better already 🙂

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    1. Allsaints, now you got it out of your system, get back to your senses. Lloyd is a must have but his price wont go up by much. Really giving up on Heeney? High ownership?

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  27. Slightly off-topic (but not really… I’ll reveal all later), with Tom Mitchell tracking much better than average in his recovery, what are the odds he plays late in the season?

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  28. What are your thoughts on this left field move that would generate cash and also open up the possibility for Gawn to come in to the team next week..

    Goldy > Lycett
    Heeney > Parker

    This trade would leave 650k in the bank keeping in mind current reserves.

    With that cash in hand, I’d look to move Lycett in to the forward line next week, with Big Maxi coming in for Bines to join Grundy in the ruck department..

    TU – Could be worth a punt!
    TD – WTF, not a chance.

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    1. In that scenario, you’ll be using 3 trades to go from 2 premiums and a rookie, to 1 premium, 1 mid-pricer and 1 rookie. With the end game here being to get to a full-premium team, you’ll have used up 3 of your 30 (10%!) trades to go backwards, or at the very least, sideways.
      Don’t chase points. Sure, Lycett went huge this round, but what did he score in Rd1?

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  29. TU: Hore and heeney to whitfield and miers
    TD: hold heeney to see how carlton game goes and get rid of my other non playing rookie in balta to miers.

    -1

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  30. Def rookie correction
    Out – Burgess

    TU: Schrimsaw
    TD: Rozee

    Rozee jtl was terrible but he looks to be improving.

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  31. So many itchy trigger fingers here fellas. Heeney will come good for sure, and sooner rather than later too. Him and Dunkley slightly disappointing, but no way I am trading either out after 2 rounds. Back yourself in and don’t go chasing points!

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  32. Def trade options

    TU out burgess in Moore (would leave Ridley & Collins on bench)
    TD out Ridley in Moore (collins & burgess bench)

    Comments
    Ridley – scrimshaw

    Or hold
    Burgess – scrimshaw

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    1. Wait for the R3 teams. If Ridley is named, hold him and consider trading Burgess. If Ridley not named, better to trade him and let Burgess continue his slow burn.

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  33. A lot of Dusty, Heeney and Dunkley posts. Here’s my thoughts.

    Too many coaches are looking backward and not forward when corrective trading. Think, will Player X be a top 6 def/fwd or a top 10 mid across the REST of the season.

    Heeney and Dusty are vastly different in this matter. There’s significantly greater depth of talent in the mids and you could easily mount a case that Dusty is more a top 10-20 mid now, or worse even. Down forward though, there’s just not as much going on and can you realistically see Heeney not in the top 6-8 fwds this year? There’s not much to compete with remember. Same goes for Dunkley.

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    1. On the flip side Roo Bloke I think there’s times where you need to get certain players in if you dont have them. Just like how Danger was an autolock in the fwds this year, Tim Kelly is appearing to be much the same as he’s playing pure midfield minutes.

      A 95 avg (heeney) may get you top 10 in the fwds but if kelly goes 110 then you’re losing 15ppg until you get him in. Definitely worth considering.

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      1. Like i commented on the Breaking Evens thread, I totally agree that this week is about making sure you have the must have players.

        1

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        1. And the most important must-haves?

          Rookies on the bubble. They’re priced for an unrealistically low average (some historical exceptions…), and will rise in price for a few weeks before starting to plateau. You won’t see a rookie go up to $250k, then come back down to $120k later in the season as a downgrade option.

          Breakouts and fallen premiums? There’s a decent chance that at some point in the season they’ll have a down week or two (injury, tagged out of the game etc.) and drop $50-100k in the process. You may never get Rocky at $400k again, but there’s a good chance you can get him for under $550, which still represents value.

          You also only need a rookie for (typically) 6-12 rounds before they max out and you can flip them. A premo, like a puppy, is forever, so if you get them wrong it’s an extra forced trade later.

          Best approach this week – rank players by BE, from lowest to highest. If you’re missing any cheap players with ridiculously negative breakevens, see if you can find a way to get them in.

          Jot down the names of any quality players you don’t have with extremely high breakevens, as they’ll likely be your first upgrade targets.

          If you’ve got a premium who is really letting you down, only trade if you’re confident you have all the money-makers, and you can’t see a world in which that player gets back to a serviceable average. And for the love of god, don’t trade them to a random “out of the box” player who may or may not continue with their two weeks of good form. Trade them for a proven player who you are confident will be top 6 in their position.

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  34. Dusty and Scott out
    Rocky and libba in

    Probably more inclined to just do dusty to Rocky and pocket the change. I have actually never been burnt by Rocky in the past

    2

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    1. Setterfield totally shut Rocky down after half time and he only scored another 26 points. Combine that with the potential drop in mid minutes when Wines comes back and it’s not such an attractive proposition. I have him but always planned to upgrade him before the byes if I didn’t have him I wouldn’t be buying him, I’d get sheed instead

      10

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  35. Newman’s impact on Simpson (D1) has me concerned and missing out on Lloyd’s points makes it worse.

    I could find the 40k needed by going:

    TU: Collins > Wilkie
    TD: Dunkley > Boak / Dahlhaus
    Comment: don’t do it!

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  36. Just a couple of players in the gun this week. Little help with your opinion on
    Trade – D. Martin/ C.Mills
    Bring in – L. Whitfield/ T. Rockliff
    Cheers guys!

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  37. This might be a nuffies trade but the rage is real off to my worse start since 2014 ranking at 40k overall

    Heeney – Kelly
    Dunks – Boak

    4

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  38. Is Parker worth 2 trades? (1 to get him in, 1 to cash in/upgrade later)

    I just know his scoring is going to go down as soon as I get him in.

    Saints got lucky with a close game against Gold Coast, then a miserable Essendon.

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    1. You were always going to upgrade him, so you can’t really factor in that trade in your decision-making (very rarely do we have rookies that are legitimate keepers by year’s end).

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  39. Okay i need draft league advice.
    Ive had an offer for cripps, and ill get rocky and luke parker. Cripps is basically my perma captain, so im torn haha

    Current team
    Whitfield, newman, milera (weitering)
    Cripps, steele, yeo, libba (polec)
    Nankervis (lycett)
    Mundy, jack higgins, robinson (petracca)

    T/u take trade
    T/d dont do it
    Comment counter offer

    Cheers all

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    1. Cripps is 1st round selection in any draft and consistent high scorer who can also pump out a huge one, don’t trade

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    2. Haven’t done draft in years but I assume to bring in Parker and Rocky you’ll be offloading another mid along with Cripps?

      So realistically you’re doing a like for like swap with Cripps and Rocky. Similar scoring potential.
      The upside being you’re slightly upgrading your M4 spot.
      The downside however (while he looks fit this year) is Rockys eventual injury. You won’t be able to replace him with an equal 120pw player. You’ll be stuck bringing in someone only scoring 100pw.

      I’d avoid it

      1

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    3. You mid line looks pretty good, so adding in an extra and pushing one out won’t improve your team very much, but it may be worth it if you think rockliff will stay fit.
      I would counter and try and get a decent forward instead of one of the mids on offer.

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  40. This may be the first year I get away with not trading for the first two weeks. Heeney is the only let-down, and I’ve got what feels like all the key rookies.

    Lloyd, Laird, Williams, Smith, Clarke, Duursma (Scrimshaw, Burgess)
    Cripps, Oliver, Neale, Crouch, Libba, Walsh, Butters, Constable (Scott, Atkins, Gibbo)
    Grundy, Gawn (Bines)
    Danger, Heeney, Kelly, Moore, Drew, Parker (Setterfield, Petrucelle)

    The only temptations are:

    Burgess -> Miers (via Moore DPP)
    Not sure if Miers is a strong enough rookie choice to burn the trade. In fact, I’m almost positive it’s not worth it. Would also leave me with 3 rookies on-field in the forward line. X

    Heeney -> Miers
    Gibbons -> Rockliff
    Two trades required to bring Rocky in due to the lack of DPP. Net result is rookie and premo for rookie and premo, possible “improvement” of both positions, plus $100k in the bank. Also leaves me with 3 rookies on-field in the forward line. ?

    So, good people.

    TU: Hooooold.
    TD: Get trading.
    Comment: Which trade, or left-field suggestions.

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    1. Personally I don’t think it’s worth a trade on your rookies. Miers dropped a 37 last week so I imagine his score this week is greatly inflated by the big home ground victory. Heeney out would be worthwhile if we don’t get some positive news on his ankle this week, maybe for a Boak if you back him to keep his role (can’t hurt the bye structure also)

      1

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    2. Same boat. Slightly different structure and picks, but I’ll only be making trades if I have to. And Heeney is not a have to. Yet. It does concern me that Horse played an unfit Buddy last year and maybe he’s doing the same with Isaac, but surely it can’t be that fu3ked if he’s still trying to take mark of the year every week?!?

      Maybe Buddy gets pushed to play to make the worst long-term deal in AFL history look a little bit better than it was. Am still astounded 5-6yrs on. Still, nothing’s as bad as the Saints signing Hanners. And I mean NO THING 🙁

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  41. Hey guys, would love some advice here.
    On the chopping block for me are mainly Dusty and Marty Hore. I’ve also got Dunkley and Billings but I’m not going to panic trade them yet.

    I have Darcy Moore in my forward line who can swing to defense so my trade options are:

    Option 1: Dusty to Rockliff and Hore to either Miers or Wilkie. Leaving $168k in the bank to make an upgrade/downgrade next week. Could also just saved the second trade and keep Hore who is likely to feature again soon.

    OR

    Option 2: Dusty to Davies-Uniacke and Hore to any forward or defender priced under $500k, most likely Boak or Newman.

    T/U for Option 1
    T/D for Option 2
    Comment: Save your trades and back Dusty to find some form

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  42. Thinking of trading Dunkley to Moore and upgrading Atkins to Rockliff? Or keep Dunkley he will come good?
    T/U- Dunkley>Moore & Atkins>Rockliff

    T/D- Dunkley will come good

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  43. for me this week I’m looking at:
    Mills to Worple, (via DPP of Moore), Worple helps with the byes.
    and Collins to either Joyce or Rozee.
    holding Greene, Henney and Dunkley who i think come good in the long term

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    1. Hey Nick,
      Don’t get rid of Collins this week, his break even is -3 and he will average over 60 and has great JS.

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  44. Thinking of trading Dunkley to Moore and Atkins to Rockliff? Or keep Dunkley he will come good?
    T/U Dunkley>Moore & Atkins> Rockliff
    T/D Keep Dunkley

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  45. shocking start to the year,
    but have most of the usual suspects that all lifted their games this week,
    Grundy-Gawn-Oliver etc.
    Fought back this week but still a long way back, so I need to do something.
    So for my first 2 trades I’m contemplating:
    Mundy-Miers
    Hind-Rockliff
    My reasons are to mitigate $$ loss, and I think/admit Mundy was just a wrong decision, looks old/slow, and will drop $50,000 ish, and by bringing in Miers who if he plays will rise by approx $50,000 and if he plays a few more games will be a nice cash cow.

    And I also have Hind who is doing nothing on the bench, so if I trade him to Rocky it adds a lot more fire power to my midfield and the $50,000 in price rise this week, I am still a bit unsure if the Rocky train will continue, but I don’t want to die wondering, due to my perilous ranking I really do need to try a few risky trades.
    I have most of the good rookies going around,
    only other concern is Heeney, but will leave him for now, I think he will come good

    T/U decent logic
    T/D Trades are Gold etc etc

    6

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    1. Tagged, might be Sloane/zorko/merritt from the last couple of years.
      Keep close attention to his games and see if he still cops it and how he deals with it.

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  46. T/U: McGrath/Heeney > Rockliff/Kelly
    T/D: McGrath/Martin > Rockliff/Kelly

    Honestly thought that given Rocky’s history, I didn’t want to punt on him before round one, and figured McGrath for a breakout. Dons not looking like providing that, so he’s a definite correction at this stage.

    Point of concern is switching Martin or Heeney out for Kelly. Both could quite easily right themselves by end of season, but not sold on either for current form and performance, both individually and team-wise.

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  47. Hi all.
    First time player this season, poor start in Round 1 but bounced back this week with 2300 so happy enough with the start.

    Here’s my team:

    Whitfield, Mills, Williams, Scrimsham, Clark, Duursma, Collins, Burgess
    Macrae, Cripps, Oliver, Steele, Shiel, Liberatore, Walsh, Constable, Butters, Scott, Atkins
    Grundy, Gawn, Bines
    Danger, Dunkley, Petracca, Dmoore, Drew, Parker Setterfield, Petruccelle

    Thoughts on trades? Mills definitely on the chopping block

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  48. I’m going Yeo to Fyfe.
    If Greene plays then Martin to either J Lloyd or T Kelly.
    If Greene doesn’t play, then Greene to Moore.

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  49. Trade or hold M.Hore?

    Here is my current rookie setup and note that through Dpp swings and bank I can bring in any rookie

    Ridley, Clark, Scrimshaw, (Collins, Hore)
    Walsh, Butters, Constable, Scott, (Duursma, Setterfield, Atkins)
    Vines
    Moore, Drew, (Parker, Petreulle)

    TU: Hore>Miers (means playing either Miers or Parker on field each week)
    TD Hore>LDU (why no love for LDU?)

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  50. Hmm, rage over heeney subsiding a bit.
    Still worried about no Lloyd.

    Thoughts on Walsh up to libba? Walsh is currently my m7.

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  51. Hi all,

    Currently have Darling at F3 instead of Kelly, took the risk and not sure it will pay off. Do we think I should be trying to get Kelly in at F3?

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  52. As a Tigers fan my sentiment got in the way and I started with a Dusty and Balta. Dusty has to go. I can upgrade to anyone or downgrade to Rocky/Sheed and then upgrade Balta

    My options are:

    T/U Dusty and Balta to Rocky/Sheed and Worpel (bench Setterfield)
    T/D Dusty to Oliver/Neale/Fyfe and hold Balta as bench/loophole

    Thanks

    2

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  53. Greene to Moore?
    Tried to roll the dice with Toby but I think it’s just going to be more of the same this year.

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  54. Got fooled into starting Mundy instead of T. Kelly, so this trade is done…

    Should i make a 2nd trade this week to pocket some cash:

    T/U – Heeney -> Worpel

    T/D – Hore -> Duursma

    Comment: save trade & hold

    Thanks in advance!

    2

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  55. The current disappointments:
    Heeney, Dusty, Hore, Menegola

    I like aggressively trading this round to save headache further on. Tim Kelly looks the real deal, and someone like Neale, Fyfe look like locks. So:

    TU: Heeney, Dusty -> Kelly, Neale/Fyfe

    TD: Hore, Dusty -> Gibbons, Neale/Fyfe

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    1. And what do we think of Menegola? Really consistent avg of 100 in past seasons but doesn’t seem to be getting midfield minutes with Kelly and the young ones in the center.

      TU: Role change, he should go (for Kelly)
      TD: Stick to him, he’s just had a down game.

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      1. Menengola can be an up/down player. Started last year with 74, 57 and then scored 3 x 120+ above.

        He’s proved he is a 100 player, and he scored 101 in Rd1, have to hold for now.

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  56. I don’t expect this to be popular, the only Rookie I’ve missed is Drew, avg 96.5 with huge negative -be, could be a massive bold move, but considering going…

    In: Drew.
    Out: Heeney.

    Would leave me with Danger, Kelly, Darling, Drew, Setterfield and Parker on the field and time to reassess the likely top forwards.
    Similar to those who either missed starting Dusty last year, or jumped off early reaped big rewards.
    Frees up a ton of $$$$.
    Zero trades used to this point.

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  57. Hey everyone.

    Bank: $424K
    Will be trading Toby Greene for Matthew Parker
    With $661.2K, I am looking to bolster my defence.

    Currently have:
    Laird, Hurn, Z. Williams, D. Moore, J. Scrimshaw, J. Clark
    (Duursma & Hore).

    Thinking about trading our Hore for:
    T/U: Lachie Whitfield
    T/D: Jake Lloyd
    Comment: Another defender I should consider?

    Thanks everyone.
    Happy Monday!

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  58. Been lucky with the rookies so far, bit of luxury trade thinking, not 100% if do no trades at all or the following…..

    Simpson and Dunkley – out
    Lloyd and Whitfield- in
    I’d be swinging Moore from Def to Fwd to accommodate bringing in the two Def.
    Simpson I’m not sure if role change/Newman effect is impacting his scores?? And Dunkley tempted to hold as could finish in top 6 Fwds??

    T/U – Do the trades, could have the top 2 defenders in!

    T/D – Save trades as both premos should finish in top 6-8?

    Thanks guys.

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  59. Have started well and ranked inside the top 1000. Seem to have most of the key rookies and my midpriced midfield is doing the job. No trades used yet but looking at one correction trade this week. It looks as though Josh Dunkley is getting less midfield minutes than last year so I am considering a sideways trade removing Dunkely and bringing in Lloyd via Moore’s DPP status.

    T/U – yes, get Lloyd in immediately.
    T/D – Dunkley is a keeper and not worth burning a trade.

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  60. Have started well and ranked inside the top 1000. Seem to have most of the key rookies and my midpriced midfield is doing the job. No trades used yet but looking at one correction trade this week. It looks as though Josh Dunkley is getting less midfield minutes than last year so I am considering a sideways trade removing Dunkley and bringing in Lloyd via Moore’s DPP status.

    T/U – yes, get Lloyd in immediately.
    T/D – Dunkley is a keeper and not worth burning a trade.

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  61. Just having my say regarding trading Heeney.
    Most of us would have got him on the promise of more midfield time which he is not getting and could be as a result of an ankle injury or FUJL.
    Therefore judging him solely as a forward only is he likely to feature in the top 6-8 forwards – Probably.
    However, I consider this the time to make a bold move and trade him out and take a punt on a POD. Let’s face it we don’t really know who the top 6 forwards are (except for Danger of course).
    A lot of people are jumping on Tim Kelly who only averaged 93 last season. Is he going to be better than that this year.
    Personally I would be looking at Boak, Lycett or Caleb Daniel – why you ask?
    Boak – back in the midfield, free of captaincy , Polec gone
    Lycett – role change, DPP giving you ruck insurance
    Daniel – the poor mans Jake Lloyd – they play the same, role change as defensive sweeper, save $’s
    One problem I see is potentially around bye rime with half the PA team in your side.
    Anyway, just putting it out there that this might be time to ‘seize the day’

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  62. Trading out heeney.
    The two options i am currently looking at are worpel and lycett.
    Having both gawn and grundy in the ruck, i feel lycett provides good bye cover (as i have bines at r3)
    Worpel seems to have a good role this season, and it would be good to get on him at his current price

    TU Lycett
    TD Worpel

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  63. Got Dunkley and Heeney, thinking Heeney will be higher at season end, but who to trade Dunkley to?

    Dunkley to:
    Kelly – t/u
    Whitfield (via dpp) – t/d

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  64. Trading out Mundy:

    Thumbs up: Kelly. Have him as probable (70%) top 6, av bw 90-105. Doesn’t suit bye structure at all atm.

    Thumbs down: worpedo. Lower chance of top 6 (20%), av bw 85-95, with a good chance of being rested. Suits bye structure and gives $125k for aggressive early upgrade to a fallen premier (Laird, Sicily, Heeney or Yeo)

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  65. I like your thinking Shaggi.

    Mundy ( BE 194 ) to Lycett (BE 20) for me.

    I like T Kelly but his price won’t move so much, and if Heeney spuds it again I will have the cash to make that move ( same bye )

    This frees up cash for future upgrades and gives me Ruck cover.

    The only 2 rookies I don’t have (with a very low BE ), on the Bubble are Butters and LDU.

    Not sure at this stage if It’s worth using a trade to get one of them in.

    Will have to see when teams drop.

    I’m picking Balter ( I don’t have him went Parker instead.) and Hore to be named.

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  66. Advice please.

    Love Heeney but looks out of sorts..

    So…. TU: Heeney and Gibbons out for Moore and Rocky?
    TD: Don’t do it

    Gives me:

    Midfield: Macrae, Cripps, Oliver, Fyffe, Rocky, Libba, Walsh, Constable (Butters, Atkins and Scott)

    Forwards: Danger, Dunkley, Kelly, Moore, Setterfield, Drew (Petrucelle, Parker)

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  67. No trades down so far. 1 corrective trade this week – either Hore or Burgess for Matt Parker.

    Gonna hold on Heeney because I still see him in my side come seasons end. Only question marks are Billings at F3 and Papley at F4. Thinking hold both at this stage as both appear to be getting the mid minutes promised to them, just being let down by poor DE and frees against.

    T/U hold both
    T/D trade one

    1

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  68. Ok, I’ll quickly list my team first

    Lloyd, Simpson, Williams, Collins, Clark, Duursma (Burgess, Hore)
    Macrae, Cripps, Oliver, Martin, M. Crouch, Walsh, Constable, Butters (Scott, Atkins, Gibbons)
    Gawn, Goldstein (Bines)
    Dangerfield, Heeney, Dunkley, Moore, Drew, Parker (Setterfield, Balta)

    Now I know I’m asking for opinions from others here, but I’m not really looking for any “don’t make any trades” answers. I feel I need to correct a couple of premo choices. I’m pretty happy with my rookies atm.

    The ones I’m most concerned about are Simpson, Martin and Heeney, particularly the first two.

    I picked Simpson because I wanted to have a POD premo in the defense, but it seems players like Newman are taking points away from him. Dusty doesn’t look like he’s 100% into it atm, and Heeney still looks like he’s struggling from the ankle problems he had during the off-season.

    So I’m not sure what trades I should be leaning towards making, who I should be trading to, etc.

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    1. Hi Corey, God you have a great team. I will hold on to heeney few more weeks, because if the reason he is not in the middle is the ankle injury, it should be ok in a week or two. Plus he’ll end up to 4 forward and you’ll regret.
      The 4 top premos you dont have atm and who could hurt you are Fyfe, Neale, Oliver,Grundy. You can beef up your team with one or more of them is you are happy with your rookies.

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      1. Not exactly. Only ranking about 50k atm. Saying that though, I had Butters (Scott on field) and Collins on the bench last weekend :/

        I do have Oliver. He’s my M3.

        I was thinking of a couple of things I could do.

        TU: Simpson to Crisp, Dusty to Neale/Fyfe/
        TD: Dusty to Bontempelli/Sloane/Rockliff

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    2. Great team Corey.

      If you are happy to use 2 corrective trades this week then perhaps consider Martin to Rocky and Goldy to Grundy…

      Heeney will come good as will Simmo.

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      1. Well Goldstein scored 100 in the first week, so I don’t really want to write him off after having one bad week (like how people rage traded Gawn and Grundy after Rd.1

        I’m feel safest with Heeney out of the three, but I don’t like what I’m seeing from Simpson so far

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    3. I think the obvious choice is Simpson to Whitfield and Martin to Fyfe.
      I haven’t done the $ sums, but I think that should work.

      1

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    4. Hey Corey, I’ve got a very similar team. Thinking of doing Martin to LDU and Hore to Worpel (moving Moore to defense via dpp).
      100k in the bank afterwards and will only have to wait 1 or 2 weeks before i can do a downgrade/upgrade to get an extra premium in quickly.

      Thoughts?

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  69. Don’t really wanna make trades but just wanna see the thumbs up thumbs down on
    Heeney to worpel
    Balta to Darcy Moore
    Thumbs up yea
    Thumbs down na
    Would leave my fwd line looking like
    Danger darling worpel
    Moore drew Parker
    (Setterfield petruccelle)

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  70. Kept a pretty big warchest going into the start of the season (about 460k). Been lucky with rookies and most premiums (bar heeney but he will stay put). With that said I can do the following to bolster fwd and def. Ideally I want Laird or Whitefield down back but both arent possible with a double trade and with Laird having a high breakeven i can afford for cows to fatten to trade him in. With that said im keen on the communities thoughts.

    TU: Double Trade: Greene and Hore to Dalh and Crisp (Regardless on if Greene is named)
    TD: Single Trade: Hore to Whitefield and keep Greene if named

    Comments: Wait another week and get Laird when cheaper. Also anyones thoughts on Dalh finishing a Top 10 Fwd with his new motivation at the Cattery?

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  71. What happened with Goldstein this week? Was it just an off day, or was it because Campbell was in the team? If it’s the latter, how likely is it that this becomes a permanent thing?

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  72. Heeney to Moore
    Gibbons to Neale

    TU: DO it now (YOLO)
    TD: Sit tight (GIbbons/Heeney is worth the keep)

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  73. Heeney to Boak
    Greene to Worpel
    T/U if yes
    T/D if save trades or only trade Heeney for Boak or Kelly
    If Greene is named I am not making the trade

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