Fixture Difficulty UPDATE

Written by Schwarzwalder on May 22 2019

(Written & Created By AllSaints)

Maddoggydog asked for a revised Strength of Schedule given that we are now 9 rounds into Season 2019 and there have been a few surprises since initial forecasts were done. I have trawled Twitter the last few days looking at various analyses from the likes of The Arc, MatterofStats and LysticsAFL (who provided SCT with a few awesome Club podcasts last year) and have come up with a combined version that should/could help when looking at our potential trade targets.

What I have done is aggregated and averaged all the data openly available to us and come up with a ranking of clubs as at the completion of Round 9, 2019. These rankings are based on performance to date (taking into account the quality of opposition) and likelihood of making finals (given upcoming fixtures) and then weighted them by the odds of finishing top4 and top8 respectively (SportsBet โ€“ probably should have used someone else in hindsight, given their early payout on a Labour win last weekend). I digress.

Given all that data, the chart below ranks each club, 1-18, based on their ease of fixture from hereon in. I clustered the teams into 6 groups of 3 teams (18 clubs), with red being the hardest, pink, orange, pale green, SuperCoach green and finally dark green (being the easiest). Teams in BOLD are at home.

 

To rank them, I then scored each team based on their relative fixture and volume by degree of difficulty. For example, STK have the second easiest fixture with a difficulty score of 122123. That number denotes the number of games by each degree of difficulty starting with the hardest, ie STK play just 1 of the top three, 2 of the next three, 2 of the next three โ€ฆ and finally 3 of the easiest. GEE donโ€™t play any of the hardest (well, you canโ€™t play yourselves can you?) while SYD and GCS have brutal fixtures.

Hope this helps. Happy planning all!

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8 thoughts on “Fixture Difficulty UPDATE”

  1. AllSaints – thanks for that. Stoked to have a request fulfilled. Its the small things that make life worthwhile ๐Ÿ™‚

    Such amazing insights on SCT. Best site by far for supercoach.

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  2. Fantastic work as always AS ๐Ÿ™‚

    Quick quizzie… was home field (or in the case of many Melbourne sides, location) factored into this analysis?

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    1. MatterofStats factors it in to their analysis, so you can assume it has been, but to only 1/3 of its value. Given that I didnโ€™t weight it in any way.

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    1. Search โ€˜loopholeโ€™ in the top left search box. Itโ€™ll come up top of the list. WBD or FRE from memory.

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