Cow Talk R 2–> 3

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

Usually this is the round when I… 

We! (Angry squeak) 

…we talk about small data samples and stuff about trusting your pre-season evaluation unless you have a good reason not to. But, given the rather epic carnage, that’s not much of a thing this year. Lots of long term injuries means you don’t need to think much about who goes out. 

But, as it happens, I noticed something a bit odd about this season’s cows. A lot of them are not 18 year old rookies. Rookies, but mature. It’s almost like clubs have finally realized how many AFL level footballers are playing somewhere other than the AFL, and are at least starting to grab them. 

Do we care why? 

Well, no. What matters is there are a lot of rookie priced players who are not only not 18, but over 20. A not complete but good enough list of rookies below:  

 

S Grlj 18

J Lindsey 18

L Dovaston 18

D Sharp 18

Willem Duursma 18

L Jaques 19

J Smith 20

Z Zakostelsky 20

H Bond 21

M Philipou 21

M Selwood 22

J Serong 23

T Blamires 23

B Cook 23

D Robertson 24

M Murdock 25

L McAndrew 25

C Jones 26

J Watkins 26

T Marshall 27

Why do we care?

Really young players usually do not have as much of a tank as older players. Almost all of them fall off as the season progresses. That’s why they end up sold for cash and not kept as keepers.

Could they be kept as anything other than keepers?

Well, sometimes when someone loves trading very, very much, they end up with all sorts of players in their final team they would probably have traded out if they hadn’t run out of trades. 

Ohhhh. 

And sometimes it just is not worth a trade to get rid of a player. That’s a thing too. 

But the point is that 18 year olds end up needing to be traded out, like 99ish % of the time.

Right, and in the past, cows were almost all, like really almost all, 18.  Now, only about a third of the relevant cows are 18. Nine of them are 23 and older. 

They can look at the list above. 

Yeah. Anyway, the point is, that there is no reason to expect these mature cows are sure to drop off later on in the season. Deven Robertson is 24 and is playing as a full time midfielder and averaged 100 in his two games so far. There is nothing at all odd about a 24 year old midfielder averaging 100 for a season. There is nothing at all odd about a 24 year old midfielder averaging more than 100 for a season. Sure just two games, but assume he ends up falling off a bit and averaging 90-some.  He cost $119,900 and could end up worth keeping as a forward. If that has happened before I don’t know about it. He did not do it before because he couldn’t break into the Lion’s midfield. There are guys who have been starting midfielders for years that couldn’t break into the Lion’s midfield. Might he end up being a trade out? Sure. Might he end up being a keeper? Well, yeah, and that is amazeballs. And worth thinking about. 

Are you predicting he will average enough he will be a keeper?

Ow, um, hmm……let’s say I expect that he and Murdock look like they will be the last upgrades I’ll make. 

Cluck, Cluck, Cluck….

Hey! That’s not nice. What brings on the hostility? 

Let me count the reasons. All five of them, Shall I name them, here all alone in my bunker?

Oh, sigh, yeah, gonna be a long year I see. Ok, well, if I had to say, I would say one of them, but really I don’t need to, none of us do. We will see how they go and then decide. I will say that if they are averaging well at the byes I am going to assume they will keep it up after the byes. 

Those two have that nice R15 bye. 

And at that point, maybe there will be upgrade targets available and I will actually be well funded enough to upgrade them. But, if the past is any guide, I’m gonna be very happy to have someone scoring in the 90s and up that I already have while I fix other issues. . 

Anyone else you think might be a keeper?

Not now, none of the rest have an average suggesting they are more than a fallen midpricer. But, we shall see. I think the big thing is to be aware of the age thing, just in case it might matter. Wouldn’t surprise me if it does, or does not, but better to know than not. 

Wouldn’t surprise me if Robertson isn’t quite a keeper but ends up in your final team anyway….

I know I want another delivery of pumpkin seeds! 

 

Dodgy Advice:  

Not exactly advice, but maybe this is the place to point out that the guideline about not bringing in rookies early is because of the risk of their getting dropped and losing their jobs. Rookies that don’t debut at the start of the season are usually not the best ones and can easily end up being dropped and not getting a third match, maybe ever! It is not to avoid injury. Any player can get injured anytime and that is a lot different then getting dropped for poor performance. So, for players that obviously have job security, that guideline doesn’t apply. Does not mean you should bring someone in early, but if, for example,  you want to play a rookie on the field, or need to plan ahead for limited trades in the future, then go right ahead – assuming you are sure they will not get dropped, or at least sure enough to take that risk. Yes, obviously I am thinking about Murdock, who from a job security standpoint was pretty much a best case. The timing of his injury was bad luck, just like the other 8 or so guys who did hamstrings this week. 

This kinda relates back to the main part. Mature age cows with job security are so rare / new people are not thinking about how they are not like the 18 year olds we are used to. 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!