Fallen Premiums – Round 4

With the early season byes finally finishing up after this week, some of our upgrade plans are starting to form. Here are some value picks to consider this week.

Defenders

James Sicily – 503.5k, (+20.3k), 108 AVG, 101 BE

Another previously great Premium option who seems to have regained that form this year is the Hawks Co-Captain. A mix of injuries, poor form and positional changes put a damper on his scoring last year, but he has rebounded with a nice triple digit average to start this year. He’s averaged 114 just 3 seasons ago and is only owned by 4.9% of the comp. This pick (much like Houston last week) comes with risk, he now shares the ball and points with 2 gun key defenders in Battle and Barrass who could continue to limit his ceiling. He’s also prone to a few missed games throughout each season whether it be through injury or suspension, which remains a factor despite him controlling his white-line fever much better these days. If your backline is relatively settled and you believe he’s back to the Sicily of old, he could be a nice value pick. For me having just brought in the inconsistent Houston last week, I’ll probably be looking for a more conservative option

Tom Stewart – 528.1k, (+27.2k), 119 AVG, 59 BE

Stewart was a candidate for me to include last week and in hindsight I probably should have. He’s another defender with a great history who’s bouncing back to top form. He looks great when he’s allowed to intercept and run the Geelong defence and has done exactly that through 3 games. Some opposition sides have looked to tag him in the past, and he also seems to somehow miss a few games each year. But when he’s healthy he’s a proven commodity with an underrated ceiling that can deliver some sneaky good VC scores. In the same boat as Sicily if you’re looking for value this week.

Colby McKercher – 445.4k, (-4.2k), 85.3 AVG, 67 BE

McKercher was in just about every team at some point in the pre-season, but some injury clouds and a lack of clarity on his role scared away many including myself. He looked to be managed and thrown around the ground a bit the first 2 weeks, but against the bombers he showed a glimpse of what we were all hoping for. 35 touches and 118 points, which could have been bigger if not for a few turnovers. We all know he has the talent, but I’d err on the side of caution and give him a week. The roos defence looks a bit different with the revelation of Parker back there and Clarko has been known to shuffle the magnets with this group (remember Sheez last year?). All this without mentioning the fact that he played Essendon, who have been putting about as much pressure on the opposition as 22 feather dusters so far this season. His price should remain very manageable this time next week, when we hopefully have a clearer picture.

Jordan Clark – 562.6k, (-5.4k), 107 AVG, 84 BE

Clark is the most expensive of these defenders, but also probably the safest. Has had a great last couple of weeks at Optus after an average Round 1 at the cattery, and remains a manageable price. He’s the main scorer for the Dockers, especially with Ryan taking a step back. Very durable and rarely gets tagged, he should be a top 6-8 defender on the year barring any unforeseen circumstances. If you think you need a set and forget guy in defence right now, Clark is your best bet.

Incoming price drops: 

Rory Laird – 559k, 177 BE

Bailey Dale – 499.1k, 160 BE

 

Midfielders 

Bailey Smith – 629.5k, (-8.8k), 119 AVG, 82 BE

Talked about Smith last week as one to watch. He didn’t get quite the discount we thought courtesy of a massive 172 against the Crows in the wet. Any question marks around him from Round 0 are just about dead and he’s as good an option as any to bring in for the rest of the year. He seems to love a big occasion and could go huge again on Easter Monday. His running mate Holmes is also flying in that midfield and is a great option too.

Touk Miller – 586.6k, (+0.6k), 113 AVG, 127 BE

Kinda didn’t want to include Touk in this because of his low ownership, but I gave out some dodgy advice last week so I probably should. Rowell and Petracca out should mean more midfield minutes, while Anderson remaining should mean no opposition attention. He’s been one of the most consistent players of the last few years and averaged 120+ not too long ago. He’s a good pick as is, but throw in that he’s a big chance to get forward status in a couple of weeks and he becomes just about a no-brainer in my opinion.

 

Incoming price drops 

Jordan Dawson – 611.3k, 167 BE

Ed Richards – 592.9k, 168 BE

Isaac Heeney – 593.6k, 163 BE

Lachie Neale – 551k, 160 BE

 

Rucks

Ned Reeves – 242.4k, 95 AVG, -46 BE

My team has had a tough start to the year, but at least I nailed my Ruck picks and could sit back and watch Xerri put up another 200 points on Saturday. He scored 68, is now out for 3 weeks and there are whispers ROB could return for the Crows to sabotage McAndrew’s scoring. At least I didn’t just bring him in I guess. Now many are looking for solution and I’ve seen a small number of people interested in Reeves. If you’re going to trade Xerri, I’d recommend just going for another premo such as Jackson, Gawn or English. This happens often where a player will earn a reprieve in the senior side and play out of his skin for a couple weeks, before reverting back to normal. Dual rucks usually isn’t a great recipe for SuperCoach scoring, and while I think he’ll hold his spot and play well, I don’t think he’s the best option for our sides. Same applies to other value options in this line such as Sweet.

Incoming price drops

Brodie Grundy – 653.5k, 162 BE

Darcy Cameron – 556.4k, 183 BE

 

Forwards

Kysaiah Pickett – 496.2k, (+1.3k), 98 AVG, 72 BE

Zac Bailey – 474.7k, 96 AVG, 89 BE

Justin McInerney – 492.1k, (+15.3k), 103 AVG, 124 BE

Grouped these 3 guys together because of how unpredictable forwards are looking at the moment. It’s hard to guess who will be the top 6 guys when averaging 85 might be enough to achieve it. All 3 will probably be wildly inconsistent and be around the 85-90 mark, while not going too far above it. Kozzie will throw out some 150s, but also be tagged, wasteful with the ball or suspended just as much. Bailey is a gun but saw a bump in midfield time last week, which probably won’t last and can also butcher the ball, particularly in front of goal. McInerney looks to have improved and is now more important in Sydney’s midfield and wing mix, but just doesn’t consistently get enough out of his touches, and seems to rely on goals to score. At this stage I’m probably picking one this week, let me know what order you’d put them in.

Sam Darcy – 483.1k, (-34.5k), 74 AVG, 125 BE

Darcy showed good scoring potential last year, but has slowed to start this year. He was under an injury cloud after origin and seems to be struggling with the added opposition attention from being hyped up the last year or so. He comes off a bye this week to play Essendon in a game which could get very very ugly. Him or Naughton (or both) might kick 10 and he might be back. But after that its back to stronger defences and more attention. Can he break through it, or will there be a learning curve? If you were leaning towards taking him just for this matchup, it’s not even the worst idea.

Dylan Moore – 461.9k, (-8k), 84 AVG, 65 BE

Connor Macdonald – 404.9k, (+23.8k), 91 AVG, 60 BE

2 Hawks players here. They’ll probably bring similar results. Solid scoring, ups and downs and not quite premium status. The Hawks play a super balanced team game style which is awesome to watch, less awesome for SuperCoach. Guess Macdonald is the cheaper of the 2 but Moore has better history.

Jack Lukosius – 242.1k, 103 AVG, -62 BE

Last one I had to mention. 6.5% of traders this week have brought in Luko. He’s somehow backed up his first score with a decent one to have a negative BE this week. I think you’ll save a lot of headaches for yourself if you just get a rookie instead. He’s always been a flash in the pan player, with an undefined role and no consistency. Think he got a bunch of points for standing up in the 4th quarter which is great for him, but I’d recommend staying away from this pick. But who knows, maybe he’ll keep it up long enough to make some decent cash in these trying times for forwards.

 

Incoming price drops 

Izak Rankine – 539k, 207 BE

 

That’s all for this week. Some more options are starting to present themselves and the way these injuries are going, we’re all gonna need them soon. Let me know if I missed any you’re looking at.