Cow Talk R 3–> 4

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

We’re past the correction season but not yet into the upgrade season.  

So where are we?

Hamster season!

No, wait, NOT Hamster season!

Nobody say Rabbit season or we’ll be here all night. 

Good, ok, well, it is sort of both. This year with what feels like a lot of forced moves, there was less than normal opportunity to make corrections, so there may still be some pending. I ought to spend some time looking at how useful the first few weeks of the season are for predicting final averages, but maybe next week. 

So what is this week?

I think of it as prep week, although there is probably  better term. What we do this week makes a lot of difference for the rest of the season. We have a lot more information, but still not a lot, and have to decide things like do we get another cow or grab a cheap premium? Several times. 

So you are going to talk about that?

Nope! Too big. Not sure I have anything to add. Like, everyone is talking about that. I’m gonna try and help with a very specific question. What is the cost of bringing in a player who has a bye this round. 

Is that a thing? 

Well, a lot of quality players  have the bye this round. But is it worth bringing them in anyway?

Um, no if you have more urgent moves?

Correct, but I am assuming that the question is who to bring in and that R4 Bye players are under consideration. 

Ok, why that question? 

Because I can answer it!

So, there are 21 rounds left. Everyone but R4 bye players will score in 20 of them. R4 bye players will score in 19 of them. 

Assuming a R4 Bye player will average 110 for the rest of the season. That is 19*110 = 2090 points. 

Assuming a non-bye player will average 110 for the rest of the season. That is 20*110 = 2200 points. 

Gosh, a 110 point difference, what a surprise…. 

Yeah, but it is less since odds are we can get a 60 at least from whoever fills in for the R4 Bye guy, especially in best 18. So that makes it a 40 point difference. 

Which means the player without the bye scores a bit less, why are we talking about this?

It means that if you take what you expect a R4 Bye player to average and subtract 60, that is how many points deficit you will have if you bought another player without the bye who you expect to have the same average at the same price. 

But players have lots of different prices!

So we can compare. Divide the deficit by 20 in this case 40/20 = 2 and that is how much to lower Ash’s average when comparing him to other players. 

If Jordan Clark goes at 108 the rest of the season that has him scoring the same as Ash with his adjusted average. So, who costs less? 

What about the byes?

The Byes are “Sir Not Appearing In This Post.” Different question.

Anyway, now it looks like Ash was a bad choice of examples since there are a lot of guys who will score about as well much cheaper. Um…

Assume Finn Calahan is a 110 for the season. Makes him a 108 for comparing. Looking around, hmm, Ed Richards is a bit more costly but probably a 110 floor from here on out. Makes them similar….

So,  all the math and really, the outcome is that players with the bye are not really that disadvantaged as long as you have 18 playing this round?  

Might make a difference on someone close, but,  yeah. I had sort of assumed there would be a bigger difference, and there is not, which is good to know. I was wrong. Now I am more open to players on their bye. I’d assumed just no, and it turns out price and BE seems to matter more. I mean, 40 points is 40 points, but if I miss 40 points but pay $25,000 less, than sure, miss 40 points. 

So you thought you were going to make one point but made the opposite one?

Yup. The idea is to figure out what is correct, not to prove a specific idea is correct. I worked it out and found out the correct answer. I wanted to figure out how important missing a week was, and we found out it isn’t that big of a deal, especially with best 18. That answer being different than what I expected, that’s good, it shows we’re learning and not just trying to “be right’ or force the answer we like. 

 

Dodgy Advice:  

There are a lot of Cow-like objects around right now. Good breakevens and a chance for quick cash and points at once.  Has Coleman turned a corner and worth bringing in for a while? Can Lukosius go big a few times soon and spike up to a good price to sell? I have no idea, but guys like that are worth looking at, if you are in need of cash and points and don’t like any of the cows you do not own. 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!