Rookie Review – Round 11

Rookie Review – Round 11

The rookie cupboard isn’t just bare and the shelves are gone… at this point the real estate agent has already relisted the property and someone else has moved in.

Welcome to Round 11, where finding a downgrade target feels less like SuperCoach strategy and more like surviving a post-apocalyptic scavenger hunt.

At this stage of the season, rookie trading is less about perfection and more about survival. If a player can make some cash, hold a spot for 2-3 weeks and help complete an upgrade, they have probably done their job.

The rookie situation this week somehow looks even worse than last week, which honestly did not seem possible.

At this point of the season, we are no longer shopping in the fresh produce section. We are digging through the discount freezer looking for something with a pulse and a negative break even.

There are very few genuine downgrade options available, which means a lot of coaches will either: Hold rookies longer than they want to, or Trade in players they promised themselves two weeks ago they would never touch.

This is the time of year where team structure, DPP flexibility and job security become almost more important than scoring.

Also remember, a rookie does not need to average 90 to be useful. If they can make $80k-$120k and help complete an upgrade, they have done their job.

One thing that becomes really important around this stage of the season is planning rookie trades around the upcoming mid-season bye rounds.

When looking to sell a fattened rookie, don’t just look at the break even, look at their bye as well.

If a rookie has already made most of their cash and is about to head into a favourable bye round where you have plenty of numbers available, that can be the perfect time to move them on.

But if they play in one of the tougher bye rounds where you are already struggling for warm bodies on field, it can actually make sense to hold them for another week or two as bench cover, even if it costs you a little bit of cash generation.

Sometimes losing $20k-$30k is less important than avoiding a zero during the byes.

This time of year, rookie management becomes less about maximising every dollar and more about balancing cash generation, team structure, bye coverage and simply surviving the chaos.

Instead of ignoring the one-game players completely, this week we are going to include a separate watchlist section for them.

Normally I prefer waiting until a rookie has played at least two games before recommending them. One good score can be misleading, roles can change quickly, and sometimes a player only gets a one-week opportunity before disappearing back into the VFL abyss.

But the rookie cupboard is so empty right now that we at least need to acknowledge the names that are appearing.

If you are desperate for cash generation, loophole options, or trying to get ahead of the pack, these one-game rookies are worth monitoring closely. Personally, I would still prefer to wait another week before pulling the trigger on most of them, but I also understand that some coaches are one injury away from fielding the club physio at F6.

At this point of the season, surviving is a strategy.

BUY

Player	Pos	Price	Avg	BE	JS
Bodie Ryan	DEF	$119,900	43	-14	Fair
Paddy Cross	FWD	$169,000	48	-17	Fair
Nik Cox	MID	$158,700	45	2	Medium
Harvey Johnston	DEF	$119,900	29	5	Fair
Wade Derksen	DEF	$99,100	47	-33	Poor

Bodie Ryan

Ryan scored just 27 points from 60% TOG in his first game, but improved nicely last week with 59 points from 85% TOG.

He gave away two free kicks, but both were a bit unlucky and more importantly he showed courage and attacked the contest hard. Sam Mitchell absolutely loves that sort of thing.

The fact his TOG jumped that much in week two is probably the biggest positive sign.

It feels very likely he gets rewarded with a few more games and at $119k with a BE of -14, that is more than enough to put him firmly on the radar.

Paddy Cross

Cross has now played four games and looks like the pick of the rookie forwards.

The first two games were not great, which is actually helpful because it kept his price relatively low at $169k. 

His job security seems decent enough and he at least looks capable of scoring in the 50-70 range, which is more than we can say for most rookie forwards this year.

In a season where forward rookies have mostly been scoring like substitute teachers, Cross at least looks playable.

Nik Cox

Nik Cox spent most of the game in the forward line and honestly looked a little bit lost at times.

He has now played three games and scored 42, 52 and 42, which probably tells us what he is, a slow burn cash cow rather than a breakout scoring option.

I am not sure we see much more scoring upside than that, but the important thing is he seems to have reasonable job security and should keep ticking cash upwards slowly.

At this stage of the year, sometimes boring and alive is enough.

Harvey Johnston

Harvey Johnston is an AFL footballer who plays for West Coast Eagles.

That is currently about the extent of my scouting report.

He is a small forward, which is always dangerous territory for SuperCoach, and scores of 19 and 39 back that concern up nicely.

Still, he is basement priced and appears to have a reasonable chance of holding his spot for now.

Wade Derksen

Derksen was dropped after two games and we have basically all been sitting around waiting for his third game like it is a delayed flight announcement.

At $99,100, if he gets named he is straight into the conversation.

The new coach at Carlton should give him another opportunity and I am expecting him to be named this week. The scoring has actually been solid enough when he has played, and at basement price we really are not asking for much.

Honestly, if a $99k rookie gets named this week most coaches will bring him in.

At this point of the rookie season, sometimes we are all just pretending we know more about these players than we actually do.

RISKY BUY

 

Seriously, if you are digging around in the Risky Buy section, things may not be going especially well.

Most of these players have poor or very poor job security and could vanish from senior selection quicker than a SuperCoach lead on a Sunday afternoon.

Billy Cootee is probably the only one you could make a semi-serious case for after now playing three games, but he is already up to $150k and at that point you may as well just scrape together a few extra dollars and grab Nik Cox or even Watkins (with DPP) instead.

This is less a “risky buy” section and more a “we have run out of food and are now checking the back of the pantry for expired beans” section.

If one of these names solves your upgrade plans this week, and lets you get a player you want, great.

 

WATCHLIST / ONE GAME PLAYERS

Normally we avoid recommending players who have only played one game because one decent score can mean absolutely nothing. But times are desperate.

Jack Ison is probably the most interesting of the lot after opening with a 75, which immediately gets coaches excited and irrationally confident. Noah Roberts-Thomson also showed enough to at least stay on the radar.

Charlie Banfield’s MID/FWD status could make him relevant very quickly if he can hold his spot, while Harrison Oliver and Tom Anastasopoulos at least look like playable downgrade options if named again.

Of course, history tells us at least two of these players will probably score 23 next week and get dropped immediately after everyone trades them in.

There are other players who have played one or two games, but we haven’t listed here because it has been some time since they had their last game, but look out for team announcements on thursday for names like Perez, Hannaford, Joyce, Charlie Edwards, Dalton and Chayce Jones

 

HOLD

 

This is probably the biggest section of the article this week, which tells you everything you need to know about the current rookie landscape.

If your rookie still has decent job security and money left to make, there is absolutely nothing wrong with squeezing every last dollar out of them.

At this stage of the season, cash generation is slowing across the competition and we are no longer in a position where we can aggressively trade every rookie the second their BE gets uncomfortable.

Some of these cheaper “hold” players might even become buy options for coaches depending on structure, bye rounds and available cash. Guys like Watkins, Champion, Robey & even Toby Murray still have low break evens and if you don’t own them, please don’t discard buying them now.

The important thing now is balancing cash generation with bye coverage

 

SELL

This week the sell decisions are probably more difficult than the buys.

Normally the rookie cycle is pretty simple, once a player’s break even gets close to, or above, their average, it is usually time to move them on. That normally means the best cash generation is done and you are risking holding too long and losing value.

The problem this week is… who are you actually trading them to?

The downgrade options are thin, which means some coaches may need to hold certain rookies a little longer than they normally would.

When looking at your sell decisions this week, do not just look at the player you are trading out, look carefully at the rookie you are bringing in as well.

If you are moving on a rookie who still has reasonable job security and another $20k-$30k left in them, it might actually be safer than sideways trading into a shaky rookie who could be dropped immediately.

The upcoming bye rounds matter as well.

If a rookie has a high BE and is heading into a bye round where you have strong coverage, that is usually the perfect sell opportunity.

But if they are playing in one of the tougher bye rounds where you are already short on numbers, it can absolutely make sense to hold them another week or two for bench cover, even if it costs a little bit of cash generation.

At this stage of the season, surviving the byes can be more important than squeezing every last dollar out of a rookie.

So yes, Farrow, Grlj, Serong and Rosas all have very high break evens and are clearly approaching sell territory.

But before trading them, make sure the rookie coming in actually improves your team structure, cash generation and bye setup.

Because trading a reliable rookie to a shaky rookie who gets dropped immediately is one of the fastest ways to turn a normal SuperCoach season into a psychological experiment.

 

thanks fellas