Analysis: Trade Targets

Written by Gunboat Diplomacy on April 9 2024

*limited to players under 20% ownership and sub 650k


Luke RYAN (FREO, $644.5k, 133.3, 11.8%)

It’s a big price to muster but Ryan is clearly D1 at the moment. Even with Freo’s key position instability, his brand of meterage, efficiency and going by foot makes him one of the highest natural ceiling players. If you’re stable on the other two lines, combining Jordon, Massimo and your bank for Ryan would be a sizeable but sound investment.

Fixture: Port, Eagles, Dogs, Tigers

BE: 127

Jack SINCLAIR (STK, $573.6k, 97.0, 1.6%)

For a 70 grand less, you could have Sinclair. He didn’t start the season, took that first game to find his legs, had a butchered 30 the following week and then 29 touches, 498 MG and 124 over the weekend. Showed that he’s good to go, able to accomodate NWM having some of that backline economy and remains a quality option. BE 115, so no rush.

Fixture: GWS, Dogs, Port, Roos

BE: 115


Tom LIBERATORE (WBD, $625.0k, 115.0, 6.0%)

The Coal Face King will likely be that low key Top 8 finisher again this year. He reasserted himself against the Cats with 28 – yes, TWENTY EIGHT – contested possessions and 19 clearances. Those numbers are insane. If you’re able to press into the low 600s, he’s a mighty fine option.

Fixture: Dons, Saints, Freo, Hawks

BE: 104

Matt ROWELL (GCS, $620.5k, 130.0, 17.5%)

Rather fittingly next, Liberatore’s cross club protege Matt Rowell is off to a flyer. He’s tabled scores of 137, 155, 99 and 129 and currently leads the competition for contested possessions, averaging 20 a game. Whenever he adds an uncontested and score involvement stream to his profile, he goes large. Has the Hawks, Swans, Eagles, Lions and Roos. He comes in for me this week.

Fixture: Hawks, Swans, Eagles, Lions

BE: 126

Jack STEELE (STK, $589.6k, 126.8, 17.6%)

Hats off if you started him, as Steele has been rock solid. No flashy, high ceiling performances just really blue collar football for 120s – which might be a perfectly acceptable new normal for him. Decide now if you want him.

Fixture: GWS, Dogs, Port, North

BE: 69

Connor ROZEE (PTA, $588.5k, 114.5, 11.6%)

Rozee on a 115~ trajectory this year and his average is starting to match expectations. Pretty simple proposition having slipped a touch under 600k with that nice, isolated bye.

Fixture: Freo, Pies, Saints, Crows

BE: 82

Nic MARTIN (ESS, $533.1k, 106.3, 15.7%)

Looks like Martin is able to overcome askew use and a loose grasp of defensive play by just finding a metric tonne of the ball. Back to back 130s, will swiftly acquire DEF status and sail into the high 500s. No shame in jumping back on if he suits your needs this week.

Fixture: Dogs, Crows, Pies, Eagles

BE: 35


Rowan MARSHALL (STK, $605.6k, 114.8, 6.2%)

For those looking to deal with Grundy now rather than later, RoMo is your man. He was criminally underscored against the Dons and thus sits at 600k flat. You’ll need two of him, Maxxy and Tingles to finish the season and with the latter two are way too expensive right, this week or the next is the perfect time to grab RoMo.

Fixture: GWS, Dogs, Port, North

BE: 120

Lloyd MEEK (HAW, $357.3k, 109.0, 0.3%)

You could go the other way and drop down to Lloyd Meek, who was frankly tremendous against the Pies. A 130 against a sharky midfield and a double team ruck set up is very strong. Should keep Reeves out of the side (Hawks fans?) and a solo ruck economy will generate enough points on field to allow you to deal with R2 later.

Fixture: Suns, Roos, Hawks, Dogs

BE: -14


No real ‘targets’. Heeney and Flanders must haves and outside the ownership parameters, Jackson about to be ruined by Darcy, Powell a bit of a stiff sell now at 400 and can’t see how the Top 6 will settle at this stage. B18 over the next two weeks also lets us off the hook in dealing with FWD rookie fielding.


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26 thoughts on “Analysis: Trade Targets”

  1. I’d say Zorko is actually a bit of a target in the forward line after playing more down back the last two games. Had 3/6 kick-ins against the Roos last week.

    Unsure what will happen when McKenna returns from his hamstring injury which should be round 6.
    Looking to maybe to bring him round 7 to see what McKenna does and it’s back to 22 player scores


  2. I think whoever wins SuperCoach this year so nail F4-6 in the next 6-8 weeks. Any of Macrae, Daniel, Dylan Moore, Zorko and the like could end up doing 95+ for less than 400k.


  3. I thought I saw somewhere that Horne-Francis was a chance at fwd status, or have I just made that up?


    1. I’m assuming that is made up. Last week he had 17 CBA, which was more than Butters
      He had 20 CBA in round 1 too.
      Most of his possessions have been on the wing or the centre of the ground. Unless he has been resting as a high half-forward I don’t see him having DPP


  4. Thinking about getting Meek at R3. Hang on, hear me out.

    He provides cover for both Grundy (this week) and Gawn (next week) over the byes, will make cash and assuming he continues to ruck solo will score well also.

    Then swap him (or Grundy, depending on form) for a premo fwd in Round 8.

    Too crazy?


    1. It’s not crazy but I think I’d prefer just trading Grundy to him now and get cash for other upgrades in the process


      1. I feel like Meek could be the Briggs/Preuss/Flynn type of ruck that comes in and blows up big time scoring wise.

        The scenarios, in order from worst to best are:
        1) Picked this week as a duel ruck and this is ongoing – return to poor scoring.
        2) Dropped in two weeks time (at least you get the price rises).
        3) A few more weeks of solo ruck, scores around 80 and then dropped.
        4) Solo ruck until his bye, scores around 80.
        5) Great ruck until his bye, scores around 100.

        As long as you use the money from the Grundy downgrade, option 2 through 5 are all positive and net some points during the best 18 period along with price rises. Outcome 5 could be season defining and allow you to pick up English/Marshall/Gawn as a fallen premium.


    2. Yeah I’ve considered that. Much safer than R2 replacement for Grundy. Also Grundy is still scoring k. It’s far more important to get those rookies off field. It’s definitely an option for those with a dpp R3 rookie


  5. Lukosius is another forward to look at. He’s been thrown down back the last two games for the Suns. Took 5/9 kick-ins last weekend. 7 I50’s, 6 R50’s, 8 intercepts, but 7 turnovers.
    Played a lot down back in previous seasons, but Dimma as coach might help his scoring improve


      1. I’ve spent a fair bit of time today assessing any potential forwards instead of doing my uni work.

        He really just needs to be more accurate with his disposals. He turns over the ball a lot which holds back his scores


          1. Well we have to scrape the barrel for something and he does look like an interesting prospect.

            No one seems to like any suggestions, but can they think of anything themselves? No forwards DPPs look to be coming through unless some major role changes occur in the next two weeks.

            Can’t be left with rookies on the field all season, otherwise it is rollercoasters with key forwards


            1. There may end up being a case to run rookies in F6 or maybe F5 and F6. If you still have Sanders and Reid averaging 75 in those spots, and the upgrade potential is only to guys averaging 85, then it may be better to upgrade your m8 who is averaging 105 to the 117-120 guy you don’t have.
              So my plan will be to focus on getting absolute top shelf performers on other lines before I worry about forwards.
              FWIW I think the top 4 are Heeney, Flanders, Jackson and Powell. Have to get all them first. If you have missed Heeney it’s probably more important to spend the 700k there before you worry about F5 and F6.


              1. Hope Sanders gets DPP and Bevo doesn’t screw us either just to make it easier.
                Darcy likely returning this week and potentially affect Jackson’s scoring.
                Hoping for a gem to shine in this forward line dilemma


              2. I like this analysis in theory but the reality is Heeney is a 630k player who averages maybe 110 from here at best?

                There are always forwards. Jackson, Heeney, Flanders, Bolton and Macrae comfortably top 5 and then probably a key forward or Caleb Daniel type will round out the top 6.


  6. Max King anyone? $390K and is averaging 100 (R1 = 115, R2 = 110, missed R3, R4 = 77). Sure he’s a key fwd but fwd line is bare there’s a good chance you’re going to end up with a KPP in the fwd line anyway.


    1. He’s managing to get a fair amount of the ball with about 15 disposals and 7 marks a game. That’s a big jump from last year

      If he can hold that rate and score 2+ a week he doesn’t look too bad


  7. Why does no-one talk about McKay in forward line? Had a bad week this week but could easily be a top5 or am I dreaming?


    1. Key forwards are very hit and miss with their scores. First 3 games he went 3, 3, 5 in goals scored. Last round was 0 goals and was a heavy drop in scoring.

      They are work best as a looped F7 later in the season. I’d expect a couple of lower scores from McKay to come


    2. I think the trick with key forwards is you need to either loop them as Nato mentioned, or you start with them. That way you make sure you get the highs to balance out the lows.



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