Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows
Welcome to the first Cow Talk of the season! It’s great to be back and the C-TAP and I are all set to
Confuse people who don’t know what the C-TAP is
Sigh, yes, fine. The C-TAP is the Cow Talk Advisory Panel. It is made of me, Father Dougal, my Imaginary Interlocutor
and my Hamster, To Mini Therion, The Little Beast .666.
Anyways, once we have enough data for projections to matter I’ll start doing Cow price change projections for all the relevant cows other than the ones I forget. But, until we have data, around round 4-5, I don’t feel projections are a lot of use, so we just babble about whatever seems useful or interesting to babble about.
So, what are we going to do tonight To Mini?
Same thing we always do, heckle the Priest!
You two had a year to come up with what came after “Same thing we always do” and you decided on that?
We like heckling the Priest!
So, we’re going to talk about the Tech League
You had a year to think about what to write about for the first Cow Talk of the year and you decided on that?
Like, it is awesome and fun, but it’s not like lots and lots of people play in it.
Ok, I should have said I’m gonna talk about stuff I learned from playing in the tech league. You see, for some reason, I have done much better in the tech league than normal supercoach.
Sadly yes, but anyways, I was thinking about why? What was I doing differently?
Not having to pick your own players?
Sort of. For those who don’t know, in the tech league everyone starts with the same team. We don’t get to pick who we want, we are given a team, like it or not.
Usually not, since teams with issues are more challenging and fun.
Yeah. This year the team-making team was somewhat merciful. But, again anyways, because I didn’t pick the teams I was not attached to them. It is a lot easier to evaluate the players and structure and such when you are not all emotionally attached.
Even if you picked the same player in your real team?
Those are still easier to be objective about, if not quite as much.
So, easier to evaluate. Anything else?
Yeah, First knowing the teams always have issues, and that everyone else was going to be fixing them promptly, I had to fix them promptly too. Preferably better and faster.
You could rebuild it. We have the technology. Better than it was before. Better, Stronger, Faster!
Er, yes, and rebuild them I did. Quickly and better then they were. Points now as well as points later, hopefully getting ahead and not wanting to fall behind.
Your point being?
Especially with more trades, the long game takes too long. If you don’t quickly fix issues and get points in the bank, you will never catch up to all of the people who get more points in the bank.
I’m pretty sure you used to preach about saving trades and not running out.
Yes, and I’m pretty sure we have five more trades a season now.
Yeah, I think it does. Not running out of trades is still important. Totally possible to go too hard for too long. But, now it is much easier to fall too far behind the leaders to catch up.
Back in the before times, we had 30 trades a season and could only use two per normal round, three in the byes. That generally meant two corrective trades before round three. That left 28 for the rest of the season.
Nowadays, we have 25 trades and can use, with the boosts, up to six trades before round three, leaving 29 for the rest of the season.
So even if you burn through 3 trades a round before the prices changes, we still have one more trade to finish out the season then we used to.
Yup. So, if we could handle round 3+ with 28 trades we can handle them with 29.
Does that mean we should use six?
“Should” is a little strong, but let’s think about that.
If you could swap a player who was going to score 90 a round for a player with the same price who was going to score 120 a round, how many points a round to do you fall behind per round you wait?
Um, um…loaded question?
Well, yes but that’s sort of the point. The sooner you fix issues, the better off you are. If you know what needs to be done, then the sooner you get doing it the better just in a general sense. And, given that it is by far easier to fix issues before price changes than after, since the player you want to be going up in price, you should fix as many issues as you can before the price changes happen.
That seems so simple…so…why isn’t it so simple?
Well, my example assumes you know what the issues are that need fixing. Like, know for sure who needs to go and who should come in. If you think you know those, there is no reason to wait.
Like if you owned Tom Stewart?
Right! He for sure has to go, so his owners get to take their best shot at picking a replacement, alone or along with anyone else needing to go out.
The, well not good news…if your team really needs work, then it is at least likely it will be clear who should be brought in. If your team is in good shape, there will be fewer obvious moves and less need to make movies.
So you need to make a lot of movies huh?
Let’s say I handled Yeo, Phillps, and Crozier all being out less well than I could have.
A lot less well.
ANYways, I am making three this round and from zero to three next round. I’m not waiting, because I know they need to be made, and I want the added points that I will get and I want to be able to make more moves next week. Up to two optional, and leaving one spare in case of a forced trade.
So, the guys you are bringing in are the ones you feel best about and the ones you are waiting on are the ones you want another week’s data for?
Exactly. A few players really put their hands up. Some of them are pretty much traps
Well, yes. He is almost 33 and averaged 60 in 22 games last year. After 78 in 19. He’s like the trapdoor with a pit under it, with long sharp spikes at the bottom, with poison on the spikes, and snakes…
Sorry, not snakes, kittens…
Oh duh, sorry, not kittens, um, angry hamsters at the bottom.
Very much a trap.
Then it starts filling with water
And then the walls start moving in, closing, like in Star Wars
So, just like mid priced cows and underpriced keepers have turned out to be a thing nowadays, I reckon that trading hard before price rises is much more of a thing than in the past. That’s a very high leverage time to trade and to use the boosts. The boosts also are also most useful early and less so later. I ended up saving one and not using it last season which was
Not arguing that one.
Can you please sum up?
Now that we have more trades, it is even more worth using them early to fix issues that need fixing right away before the prices changes start. Look as objectively as you can at your team, and fix what needs fixing.
Dodgy Advice: Um…in addition to the above, do not be afraid to act on one round of data if the other available data supports it. Like Ziebell, Coniglio, or Tom Green.
Oh! And as it is the first Cow Talk of the year, here is the annual link that explains the “Small or far way” thing
Small or far Away – Father Dougal on Cows
Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!” (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)
I am time zonally challenged. When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.
Thanks for reading!
Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom
4 thoughts on “Cow Talk: R1 –>2”
Chesser example of 2 data points:
– Rd. 1 : 20 points
– pre season games : also terrible scores
Holding off my rage trade of Hopper to exit Chesser.
So in theory (mathematics) bye rounds, 4 this year x 3 trades + 4 boosts = 16 trades.
Could we/ Should we aim for this as a guide to use for assistance in points scoring????
Not sure on the point scoring part, but I totally missing the extra boost. Really, the trades matter more, but the extra boost is nice. Boost don’t add to the total trades, they just let you use more of them.
This is a good post and validates my thinking and strategy for this year.
Historically, with only 30 trades, you’d avoid correctional trades in Rounds one and two, and you could do this because there was 2 to 3 preseason games to gauge player positions and output.
This year, the 6 extra trades covers for the lack of real data with the limited pre-season, and gives the player the opportunity to push their points higher earlier with less risk. Spending the 5-6 trades in round one and two may well mean the team is set earlier and the need for trading in rounds 3-7 minimalized.
I wouldn’t wait till the bye rounds to spend those extra trades….