Small or Far Away – Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

I’m gonna break tradition and talk about my own team some. Not because I want advice

Yeah, but you do need it!

Wait, one sentence in and the Hamster is snarking on me? Is this beat up on Father Dougal week?

It’s Round 15, with the Bye Of Doom. So yes. 

Oh, right, Um, I knew that.

So, anyways, I have spent the time since the round opened on my team, and not so much general stuff. But, then I realized what I was thinking about for me was really the same thing a lot of other people probably

Definitely

Fine, definitely are thinking about . To sum up, I’m way short of good R15 players and I am playing for overall. Soo, I need to do something but nothing too crazy. I have 5 trades and some cash.  My best 22 still has 2 rookies.

Ohh, what a weasel! Maybe 2 rookies but only 12 premiums! 

I counted 11?

I was being generous and counted Angus the….what’s insulting and rhymes with Angus?

F**ked us?

AHEM!

Esophagus. Because he choked!

I blame me, and you can to, before you say it, sheesh. I knew he was Angus Brayshaw when I bright him in, and sure enough I got Angus Brayshaw. I have no right to complain. If I complain I deserve to be mocked and hear a chorus of I told you so’s.

Like the people who brought in Josh Kelly?

Too soon!

Yeah, I think I’m gonna write a pre-season post about guys like Kelly, and Toby Green, and Nat Fyfe, but I don’t think it is very useful right now.

Plus, all the people mad about owning Kelly might find you and “express their feelings” if you write about it at length this week. 

I wouldn’t want that!

Thank you little dude

Who would bring food if something happened to the human who brings food?

Sigh.

So, I need help this round. I have Brander who is ready to harvest since he is not playing this round. But him plus cash is not enough to get a decent player. I’d at least want a fallen premium. But, thanks to the Rule of Three I’ve been planning my funding source sine three rounds ago….The Bont. He was worth about $530k, and then scored a 199, shooting him up to $670,000 right now.  There is no way he is worth that. I think he will do well the rest of the season but not that well.

Lets assume he goes at 125 a round from here on out.  He’ll have three more rounds of play, so that’s 375 points.  Now if I can use that cash over 4 rounds to get a guy who will bring in 94 a round I’m even on that guy and Bont, and I have the left over cash to use to get ahead. If I can get good value I might even mange three good players. Selling Bont and Branders gets me a total of $1,194,700.  Who to bring in? I may have missed some guys but here is who I was looking at:

Steven May: At $482,000 he has a 5 round average of 102 and a 3 round average of 124.7. I’m thinking 105+ for the rest of season. At 102 he costs just 4,725 per point. At 105 he is $4,590 per point

Zac Bailey: At $452,400 he has a 6 round average of 98.83. With the Lions good run in I bet he can go for 100+  Costs just $4,577 a point at 98.83.

Many Lions:  None with as good a cost/point as Zac B, based on my guessing future points.   But Witherden and McInerney are both pretty close and also options. Berry about the same. McCluggage if you think he’ll improve.  Zorko and Lyons are good but not enough discount.

A few Crows: Brodie Smith if he goes at 90 is just $4,740 a point, but I don’t trust him to go over 80, so bleh. And, um, I lied no crows really, Ick.

No Bombers: Because they have a terrible run home.

Other random Blokes in less detail who are viable: Ed Langdon. Andy Brayshaw, Cerra, Shuey, Mundy.

JPK:  Wow, $417,600. I had forgotten about him until some smart people reminded me, but, yeah. if he goes 90 for that’s $4,640. At 95 that’s $4,396. His average without the injury game is 100.6. That would be $4,151 per point. Yowza.

I went with May and JPK, leaving $295,100.  May over Zac B because of this week’s match ups.  Swans v Demons and Lions v Pies.  Also May has a lower BE.

If you do not have Bont, do you have someone who is overpriced? Maybe the Tomahawk? No point in getting rid of someone like Macrae who is pretty much worth what he is priced at.  I suppose as always it depends on your exact situation.

The other big thing maybe other have to think about is Gawn. Keep Goldy or trade him up? I’m gonna wait and see how Draper does. If Draper spuds up, I will probably trade Goldy to Gawn and put the VC on him. If Draper goes well, I keep Goldy and his score. In that case I can think about bringing in Zac B for Close or someone. I can wait up until the last match to decide that based on what my 18th best score is.

So, hold a trade and you can bring in one of many good Lions if needed, at any position!

And, I see in retrospect that Brander and my cash would have been enough to bring in JPK, but I hadn’t caught that. On the other hand I need to make sure the DPP stuff works out, so doing them both at once anyways, But, full disclosure…

Shut up, nobody cares, get on with it!

Right. anyways, remember four weeks v three weeks for the same price but, best 18, so that’s not an exact match up. Fixing an inquiry that happens in R16 could be more valuable than getting in an extra premium now.

The big thing, or a thing at least, is fail in the way you can best accept. For example, I could bring in Joe Daniher and hope he keeps it up. But if he didn’t I’d pretty much hate myself, so I am not bringing him in. I feel way better about bringing in JPK. If he fails, well, darn, but such a good punt I won’t feel bad. Sometimes you make a good move and it does not work, and well, darn. But make a dodgy move that fails? Harder to live with. At least for me. You do what works for you, whatever that is.

 

This week’s commentary is again brought to you by the Cow Talk Advisory Panel, also known as the C-TAP.

I’m the hamster and I am afraid a lot

I’m the Imaginary Interlocutor and go with my feelings

And I’m me, and I try to make productive use of thinking. Emphasis on the “try”.

 

Oh, the guy I forgot last week was Sholl, which is impressive since I own him. Usually remember those guys! Of course he did not play last week.  I also forgot Cameron, but meh, whatever with him.

Defenders

Starcevich:     Did not play. Remains a bastard!

Noble: Probably about topped out but there is an ok case for keeping him until his bye and then selling him.

Brander: Bad score! Fear realized! Dropped, useless for R15!  Darn. Still made cash, thanks for that.

Young: Did not play

 Williamson: Growth done, but…he has a job…..

Day: Growth probably mostly done and…he has a job…..and maybe a bit more growth. Oops, no job this round, dang.

McKay: Sell now, sell next week, sell whenever.

Hill:  He made me throw up a little in my mouth. Tasted sort of like pumpkin seed.  Ick.  Hill or what the Hamster said?  Yes!

The Eggman-Smith:  Did not play.

Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg-Thatcher:  Dang

McPhearson:  Did not play.

Sholl:  Did not play.

 

Midfielders

Brown: Did not play

Pickett: So, do whatever?  He plays this week, yay! Sell next week? Really at this point, no right or wrong thing.

Mcinerney: Did not play

Hayden: Did not play.

Serong: Likely to keep dropping some. Might be worth playing anyways.

Caldwell: Did not play

Hibberd: Did not play

Simpson:  Did not play.

Mayes: Did not play.

Rucks

Pittonet: Just sell him. Is he owned by any non dead teams?

Draper: Did not play. Delaying the money.

 

 Forwards

Budarick:  Even more less worth getting cash out of. Ick.

King: Dang, a 26? Good thing it is his bye. Sell away.

Taylor: Did not play

Vandermeer:

Last week: Meh. Hold till his bye. Unless you have a lot of those guys. I mean more than 3 is no good.

This week:  You really need to be clearer. You said more than 3 is no good and he listened and scored a 2!  Yeah, you totally ruined him.   I, um, sell him now.

 

Rankine: I  have no idea what he will do, like ever!  Sell him you said?  Look the dude is a walking pair of dice. Sometimes you roll snake eyes and sometimes you get lucky 7.  Pays your money and takes your chances. Or not.

Georgiades: Did not play

Aarts: Has topped out. Could go up, could go down, could stay.

Close: Came back! Still has money to make before his bye. Maybe after but not someone I’d hold past his bye.

Mahoney:  Did not play

 

 

Dodgy Advice

…um, see all the above?

 

Other stuff:

Songs from the Cow Talk Playlist for this week: Scott Pilgrim, by Plumtree.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sb3TWNzMSr0&feature=emb_rel_end

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee, all advice wrong or triple your money back! (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while. Even more so now that I am getting up at zero dark 30 every day to watch footy…..Twitch, twitch…..

Thanks for reading!

Thanks for reading!

Thanks for reading!

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