Cow Talk Round 19–>20

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

Remember that no Jinkx?

Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!

 Hee Hee Squeak!

Yeah. I now have a new computer. Old one getting fixed, just a fan, but, old and, anyways, lots of lots time.

Buuuuuut!

Got stuff done anyways.

Yea!

I was originally thinking  of trying to answer when is it worth taking a VC score? But, really that depends, and may not be the same answer for everyone. So, I think a better question is “what are the risks of not taking a VC score?”

I am not risk tolerant. It’s a Hamster thing. 

Fair enough.  So, here is how I looked at this.

I took all the scores of the top eight average players, who are not Oliver. They are all player’s I think of as good captain options.

Marcus Bontempelli
Timothy English
Nick Daicos
Josh Dunkley
Christian Petracca
Thomas Liberatore
Jordan Dawson
Rory Laird

I looked at players like Gulden and Stewart, but as far as I could tell, adding them in just made swapping look worse, and while they can be good VC options I don’t think they are very good captain options. So, I went with the best.

I took all their scores and made a big list and sorted them. There were a total of 141. I looked at how many of those 141 were over various scores and ended up with this chart.

The  “# Below” column shows how many of those 141 results were below the number in the “Score” column . So, for example, there were 23 scores below 100 out of the 141 total. The “# Equal or Better” column is how many were equal or better.  (Duh!) so 118 scores were 100 or above.

The % Better column is the big one.

So, what do the numbers tell us?  Well, no shock, the odds are darn good of not taking a 100 or less.  At 110 there is still a 70 percent change of an improvement.   But, by 120, keeping is getting very close to swapping, and at 123, odds are you will go down rather than up if you don’t take the VC score.

Score	# Below	# Equal or Better	% of Better
70	1	140	99.29%
80	4	137	97.16%
90	12	129	91.49%
100	23	118	83.69%
110	42	99	70.21%
111	44	97	68.79%
112	44	97	68.79%
113	47	94	66.67%
114	49	92	65.25%
115	52	89	63.12%
116	57	84	59.57%
117	57	84	59.57%
118	59	82	58.16%
119	62	79	56.03%
120	64	77	54.61%
121	67	74	52.48%
122	69	72	51.06%
123	76	65	46.10%
124	78	63	44.68%
125	81	60	42.55%
130	95	46	32.62%
140	111	30	21.28%
150	127	14	9.93%

But, that is not all. In addition to up or down, how much up or down?

If your VC scored 90, and you don’t take his score, if you do lose points, on average you only lose 3.87 . But the average gain is 41.59 points!  For a 110, the average loss would be 11.13 but the average gain would be 26.24.   If you multiply out the %s times the amounts to get a net, for a 110 the average result is a gain of 15.11 points.

So, at 122, you are pretty much breaking even.

Score Under	Ave Over	Ave Under	Ave Loss	Ave Gain	Net
70	121.85	50.00	0.51	71.34	70.83
80	122.88	68.75	1.54	52.59	51.05
90	125.21	79.75	3.87	41.59	37.72
100	127.93	87.52	6.59	33.82	27.23
110	132.47	95.10	11.13	26.24	15.11
111	132.94	95.77	11.60	25.57	13.97
112	132.94	95.77	11.60	25.57	13.97
113	133.61	96.81	12.27	24.53	12.26
114	134.05	97.47	12.71	23.87	11.16
115	134.73	98.42	13.39	22.92	9.53
116	135.90	99.88	14.56	21.46	6.90
117	135.90	99.88	14.56	21.46	6.90
118	136.37	100.46	15.03	20.88	5.85
119	137.06	101.31	15.72	20.03	4.31
120	137.53	101.86	16.19	19.48	3.29
121	138.24	102.67	16.90	18.67	1.77
122	138.72	103.20	17.38	18.14	0.76
123	140.52	104.93	19.18	16.41	-2.77
124	141.08	105.40	19.74	15.94	-3.80
125	141.93	106.09	20.59	15.25	-5.34
130	146.67	109.07	25.33	12.27	-13.06
140	153.07	112.77	31.73	8.57	-23.16
150	161.14	116.95	39.80	4.39	-35.41

Sorry for the delay but at least now we know. While this is just this year’s data, so far, I expect this is going to be about the same in general.

Dodgy Advice:  Well, Flanders. I mean, his five round average is great and he is cheap.

Anything from the rest of the C-TAP?

Pumpkiny Dom Dom Yes Yes!

Sigh. Thanks for reading!

 

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