Cow Talk Round 19–>20

Written by Father Dougal on July 26 2023

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

Remember that no Jinkx?

Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!

 Hee Hee Squeak!

Yeah. I now have a new computer. Old one getting fixed, just a fan, but, old and, anyways, lots of lots time.

Buuuuuut!

Got stuff done anyways.

Yea!

I was originally thinking  of trying to answer when is it worth taking a VC score? But, really that depends, and may not be the same answer for everyone. So, I think a better question is “what are the risks of not taking a VC score?”

I am not risk tolerant. It’s a Hamster thing. 

Fair enough.  So, here is how I looked at this.

I took all the scores of the top eight average players, who are not Oliver. They are all player’s I think of as good captain options.

Marcus Bontempelli
Timothy English
Nick Daicos
Josh Dunkley
Christian Petracca
Thomas Liberatore
Jordan Dawson
Rory Laird

I looked at players like Gulden and Stewart, but as far as I could tell, adding them in just made swapping look worse, and while they can be good VC options I don’t think they are very good captain options. So, I went with the best.

I took all their scores and made a big list and sorted them. There were a total of 141. I looked at how many of those 141 were over various scores and ended up with this chart.

The  “# Below” column shows how many of those 141 results were below the number in the “Score” column . So, for example, there were 23 scores below 100 out of the 141 total. The “# Equal or Better” column is how many were equal or better.  (Duh!) so 118 scores were 100 or above.

The % Better column is the big one.

So, what do the numbers tell us?  Well, no shock, the odds are darn good of not taking a 100 or less.  At 110 there is still a 70 percent change of an improvement.   But, by 120, keeping is getting very close to swapping, and at 123, odds are you will go down rather than up if you don’t take the VC score.

Score # Below # Equal or Better % of Better
70 1 140 99.29%
80 4 137 97.16%
90 12 129 91.49%
100 23 118 83.69%
110 42 99 70.21%
111 44 97 68.79%
112 44 97 68.79%
113 47 94 66.67%
114 49 92 65.25%
115 52 89 63.12%
116 57 84 59.57%
117 57 84 59.57%
118 59 82 58.16%
119 62 79 56.03%
120 64 77 54.61%
121 67 74 52.48%
122 69 72 51.06%
123 76 65 46.10%
124 78 63 44.68%
125 81 60 42.55%
130 95 46 32.62%
140 111 30 21.28%
150 127 14 9.93%

But, that is not all. In addition to up or down, how much up or down?

If your VC scored 90, and you don’t take his score, if you do lose points, on average you only lose 3.87 . But the average gain is 41.59 points!  For a 110, the average loss would be 11.13 but the average gain would be 26.24.   If you multiply out the %s times the amounts to get a net, for a 110 the average result is a gain of 15.11 points.

So, at 122, you are pretty much breaking even.

Score Under Ave Over Ave Under Ave Loss Ave Gain Net
70 121.85 50.00 0.51 71.34 70.83
80 122.88 68.75 1.54 52.59 51.05
90 125.21 79.75 3.87 41.59 37.72
100 127.93 87.52 6.59 33.82 27.23
110 132.47 95.10 11.13 26.24 15.11
111 132.94 95.77 11.60 25.57 13.97
112 132.94 95.77 11.60 25.57 13.97
113 133.61 96.81 12.27 24.53 12.26
114 134.05 97.47 12.71 23.87 11.16
115 134.73 98.42 13.39 22.92 9.53
116 135.90 99.88 14.56 21.46 6.90
117 135.90 99.88 14.56 21.46 6.90
118 136.37 100.46 15.03 20.88 5.85
119 137.06 101.31 15.72 20.03 4.31
120 137.53 101.86 16.19 19.48 3.29
121 138.24 102.67 16.90 18.67 1.77
122 138.72 103.20 17.38 18.14 0.76
123 140.52 104.93 19.18 16.41 -2.77
124 141.08 105.40 19.74 15.94 -3.80
125 141.93 106.09 20.59 15.25 -5.34
130 146.67 109.07 25.33 12.27 -13.06
140 153.07 112.77 31.73 8.57 -23.16
150 161.14 116.95 39.80 4.39 -35.41

Sorry for the delay but at least now we know. While this is just this year’s data, so far, I expect this is going to be about the same in general.

Dodgy Advice:  Well, Flanders. I mean, his five round average is great and he is cheap.

Anything from the rest of the C-TAP?

Pumpkiny Dom Dom Yes Yes!

Sigh. Thanks for reading!

 

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