Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

This week we are starting the projections. They use the published BEs and  then some educated estimating based on past years for how much deflation there will be. Accurate weeks might get within 100-200 while a weird week could be off by 1000ish. The main thing is the trends are accurately reflected, which helps with the decision making. I also include my thoughts based on the numbers, and sometimes random other thoughts. The number based thoughts are usually pretty obvious and reliable, while any other stuff I say should be given no more weight than any other random chuckleheads rantings, as I have no special ability to give supercoach advice, not that I don’t give it anyways.

 

Defenders 

Sheezel:  He’s here for one week, then already being  promoted and no longer a cow. I was worried he’d go like JHF did last season but, well, nothing like that.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		198,300
1	114	198,300
2	114	198,300
3	120	198,300
4	111	304,500
5	100	381,800
6	111.8	431,600
7	111.8	462,761	31,161	31,161
8	111.8	486,213	23,452	54,613
9	111.8	508,819	22,605	77,219
10	111.8	525,575	16,756	93,975
11	111.8	537,995	12,420	106,395
12	111.8	547,202	9,207	115,602
13	111.8	554,026	6,824	122,426
14	111.8	559,085	5,059	127,485
15	111.8	562,834	3,750	131,234
16	111.8	565,614	2,779	134,014
17	111.8	567,674	2,060	136,074
18	111.8	569,201	1,527	137,601
19	111.8	570,333	1,132	138,733
20	111.8	571,172	839	139,572
21	111.8	571,794	622	140,194
22	111.8	572,255	461	140,655

 

Ginbey:  Sell now for fast cash or hold for more cash later?

If you swap him for a $123,900 guy you get $172,900, which I’m assuming goes on field usefully. With 17 playing weeks left that’s a total value of $2,939,000.  If we wait say 5 weeks to sell him he’d have to make $2,939,000 / 12 (weeks left) = $245,000 to break even, which would be a price of $368,900.  He could ton up twice, soon, but I think the odds are against him making enough cash to make keeping him for profit worth it.  Now, if he is on the field, and you are therefore using his money and he is scoring enough better than your next best option, then the cash & points total might be worth it.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		171,300
1	85	171,300
2	76	171,300
3	104	171,300
4	40	246,900
5	51	282,500
6	71.2	296,800
7	71.2	291,776	-5,024	-5,024
8	71.2	301,857	10,082	5,057
9	71.2	318,269	16,412	21,469
10	71.2	330,434	12,165	33,634
11	71.2	339,451	9,017	42,651
12	71.2	346,135	6,684	49,335
13	71.2	351,090	4,955	54,290
14	71.2	354,762	3,673	57,962
15	71.2	357,484	2,722	60,684
16	71.2	359,502	2,018	62,702
17	71.2	360,998	1,496	64,198
18	71.2	362,107	1,109	65,307
19	71.2	362,929	822	66,129
20	71.2	363,538	609	66,738
21	71.2	363,989	452	67,189
22	71.2	364,324	335	67,524

 

McKenna:  Still has a lot of money to make.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		167,500
1	93	167,500
2	78	167,500
3	57	167,500
4	86	227,300
5	55	268,500
6	73.8	287,800
7	73.8	308,380	20,580	20,580
8	73.8	318,236	9,856	30,436
9	73.8	333,861	15,625	46,061
10	73.8	345,443	11,582	57,643
11	73.8	354,028	8,585	66,228
12	73.8	360,392	6,364	72,592
13	73.8	365,109	4,717	77,309
14	73.8	368,605	3,497	80,805
15	73.8	371,197	2,592	83,397
16	73.8	373,118	1,921	85,318
17	73.8	374,542	1,424	86,742
18	73.8	375,598	1,056	87,798
19	73.8	376,380	782	88,580
20	73.8	376,960	580	89,160
21	73.8	377,390	430	89,590
22	73.8	377,709	319	89,909

 

Wilmot: Also has money left to make.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	51	123,900
2	68	123,900
3	69	123,900
4	50	176,900
5	68	215,700
6	61.2	243,900
7	61.2	260,086	16,186	16,186
8	61.2	277,040	16,954	33,140
9	61.2	286,598	9,558	42,698
10	61.2	293,683	7,085	49,783
11	61.2	298,935	5,252	55,035
12	61.2	302,827	3,893	58,927
13	61.2	305,713	2,886	61,813
14	61.2	307,852	2,139	63,952
15	61.2	309,437	1,585	65,537
16	61.2	310,612	1,175	66,712
17	61.2	311,484	871	67,584
18	61.2	312,129	646	68,229
19	61.2	312,608	479	68,708
20	61.2	312,963	355	69,063
21	61.2	313,226	263	69,326
22	61.2	313,421	195	69,521

 

Cowan:  Seems like a classic low scoring, slow rising player that sooner or later it will make sense to harvest, but not at the moment while he’s still not ripe.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		117,300
1	38	117,300
2	51	117,300
3	51	117,300
4	51	150,300
5	42	180,600
6	46.6	198,500
7	46.6	208,911	10,411	10,411
8	46.6	214,680	5,770	16,180
9	46.6	220,993	6,312	22,493
10	46.6	225,672	4,679	27,172
11	46.6	229,140	3,468	30,640
12	46.6	231,711	2,571	33,211
13	46.6	233,616	1,906	35,116
14	46.6	235,029	1,413	36,529
15	46.6	236,076	1,047	37,576
16	46.6	236,852	776	38,352
17	46.6	237,427	575	38,927
18	46.6	237,854	426	39,354
19	46.6	238,170	316	39,670
20	46.6	238,404	234	39,904
21	46.6	238,578	174	40,078
22	46.6	238,707	129	40,207

 

L Jones: His 88 last round will lead to cash, and if he backs it up with another good score he may really make some good money.  Note how his 5 in round one really has not affected his cash generation a lot. He’ll probably end up the poster boy for that.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		228,100
1	5	228,100
2	76	228,100
3	68	228,100
4	45	236,300
5	88	260,600
6	56.4	283,400
7	56.4	293,879	10,479	10,479
8	56.4	306,691	12,812	23,291
9	56.4	302,205	-4,486	18,805
10	56.4	298,879	-3,325	15,479
11	56.4	296,414	-2,465	13,014
12	56.4	294,587	-1,827	11,187
13	56.4	293,233	-1,354	9,833
14	56.4	292,229	-1,004	8,829
15	56.4	291,485	-744	8,085
16	56.4	290,933	-552	7,533
17	56.4	290,524	-409	7,124
18	56.4	290,221	-303	6,821
19	56.4	289,997	-225	6,597
20	56.4	289,830	-167	6,430
21	56.4	289,707	-123	6,307
22	56.4	289,615	-91	6,215

 

Michalanney:  He’ll need to keep scoring 80-90 to keep going up, but he might do that. Not worth selling now.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		246,800
1	62	246,800
2	48	246,800
3	82	246,800
4	103	279,700
5	60	300,000
6	71.0	296,100
7	71.0	323,028	26,928	26,928
8	71.0	328,829	5,800	32,729
9	71.0	337,996	9,167	41,896
10	71.0	344,791	6,795	48,691
11	71.0	349,828	5,037	53,728
12	71.0	353,561	3,734	57,461
13	71.0	356,329	2,767	60,229
14	71.0	358,380	2,051	62,280
15	71.0	359,901	1,521	63,801
16	71.0	361,028	1,127	64,928
17	71.0	361,863	835	65,763
18	71.0	362,483	619	66,383
19	71.0	362,942	459	66,842
20	71.0	363,282	340	67,182
21	71.0	363,534	252	67,434
22	71.0	363,721	187	67,621

 

Buckley:  The one that got away. I think I owned him in the tech league last year and was feeling weird but not getting him, but also about getting him. Should have just done it, lesson learned.  A hold for now as he plays well and is making money. At his average there is no rush at all to trade out.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		205,000
1	76	205,000
2	99	205,000
3	99	205,000
4	80	275,900
5	78	330,300
6	86.4	360,100
7	86.4	375,070	14,970	14,970
8	86.4	388,999	13,928	28,899
9	86.4	403,040	14,041	42,940
10	86.4	413,448	10,408	53,348
11	86.4	421,163	7,715	61,063
12	86.4	426,882	5,719	66,782
13	86.4	431,121	4,239	71,021
14	86.4	434,263	3,142	74,163
15	86.4	436,592	2,329	76,492
16	86.4	438,319	1,726	78,219
17	86.4	439,598	1,280	79,498
18	86.4	440,547	949	80,447
19	86.4	441,250	703	81,150
20	86.4	441,771	521	81,671
21	86.4	442,158	386	82,058
22	86.4	442,444	286	82,344

 

Stocker: Well, he is certainly consistent! Also a hold as he slowly grows.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		216,400
1	74	216,400
2	74	216,400
3	70	216,400
4	77	258,900
5	78	291,100
6	74.6	317,400
7	74.6	336,870	19,470	19,470
8	74.6	350,240	13,370	32,840
9	74.6	358,646	8,406	41,246
10	74.6	364,877	6,231	47,477
11	74.6	369,495	4,619	52,095
12	74.6	372,919	3,424	55,519
13	74.6	375,456	2,538	58,056
14	74.6	377,337	1,881	59,937
15	74.6	378,732	1,394	61,332
16	74.6	379,765	1,034	62,365
17	74.6	380,531	766	63,131
18	74.6	381,099	568	63,699
19	74.6	381,520	421	64,120
20	74.6	381,832	312	64,432
21	74.6	382,064	231	64,664
22	74.6	382,235	171	64,835

 

Midfielders

 

Ashcroft:  Another ton will probably send him up to trade out-land Until then he is a hold as he fattens. .

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		202,800
1	55	202,800
2	105	202,800
3	80	202,800
4	75	258,800
5	72	309,400
6	77.4	331,100
7	77.4	344,724	13,624	13,624
8	77.4	355,885	11,161	24,785
9	77.4	366,547	10,662	35,447
10	77.4	374,450	7,903	43,350
11	77.4	380,309	5,858	49,209
12	77.4	384,651	4,343	53,551
13	77.4	387,870	3,219	56,770
14	77.4	390,256	2,386	59,156
15	77.4	392,025	1,769	60,925
16	77.4	393,336	1,311	62,236
17	77.4	394,307	972	63,207
18	77.4	395,028	720	63,928
19	77.4	395,562	534	64,462
20	77.4	395,957	396	64,857
21	77.4	396,251	293	65,151
22	77.4	396,468	217	65,368

 

Baker: His job appears safe, and we know he can go big. I’m holding until he has another big score, and planning to sell after. Even if he just ambles along at 60 he’s fine as backup and trading out at his bye.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	43	123,900
2	55	123,900
3	95	123,900
4	47	179,200
5	53	222,000
6	58.6	252,100
7	58.6	257,049	4,949	4,949
8	58.6	265,850	8,801	13,750
9	58.6	274,852	9,002	22,752
10	58.6	281,525	6,673	29,425
11	58.6	286,471	4,946	34,371
12	58.6	290,137	3,666	38,037
13	58.6	292,855	2,718	40,755
14	58.6	294,869	2,014	42,769
15	58.6	296,362	1,493	44,262
16	58.6	297,469	1,107	45,369
17	58.6	298,290	820	46,190
18	58.6	298,898	608	46,798
19	58.6	299,349	451	47,249
20	58.6	299,683	334	47,583
21	58.6	299,931	248	47,831
22	58.6	300,114	184	48,014

 

Hollands:  No sign he will have a big score, but if he does it will be sell three rounds after. If not he is another hold while he grows slowly and has a job.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		162,300
1	56	162,300
2	71	162,300
3	66	162,300
4	52	207,600
5	65	239,300
6	62.0	259,400
7	62.0	271,487	12,087	12,087
8	62.0	284,871	13,384	25,471
9	62.0	293,465	8,594	34,065
10	62.0	299,835	6,370	40,435
11	62.0	304,557	4,722	45,157
12	62.0	308,057	3,500	48,657
13	62.0	310,651	2,594	51,251
14	62.0	312,574	1,923	53,174
15	62.0	314,000	1,425	54,600
16	62.0	315,056	1,057	55,656
17	62.0	315,840	783	56,440
18	62.0	316,420	581	57,020
19	62.0	316,851	430	57,451
20	62.0	317,170	319	57,770
21	62.0	317,406	236	58,006
22	62.0	317,581	175	58,181

 

Callaghan: Sort of the Anti – Liam Jones, with a big score R1 and lower since. He will make money scoring 70ish and if you still own him no reason not to hold and make money.  Another guy who will be sold off after a big score. Maybe a week of no Green will help?

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		244,000
1	101	244,000
2	45	244,000
3	37	244,000
4	65	263,600
5	72	261,700
6	64.0	271,900
7	64.0	290,488	18,588	18,588
8	64.0	303,823	13,335	31,923
9	64.0	310,168	6,345	38,268
10	64.0	314,871	4,703	42,971
11	64.0	318,357	3,486	46,457
12	64.0	320,941	2,584	49,041
13	64.0	322,857	1,915	50,957
14	64.0	324,277	1,420	52,377
15	64.0	325,329	1,052	53,429
16	64.0	326,109	780	54,209
17	64.0	326,688	578	54,788
18	64.0	327,116	429	55,216
19	64.0	327,434	318	55,534
20	64.0	327,669	236	55,769
21	64.0	327,844	175	55,944
22	64.0	327,973	129	56,073

 

 

Rucks

 

Ratugolea:  Set to make cash after he remembered how to play over the last two weeks.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		174,000
1	55	174,000
2	31	174,000
3	47	174,000
4	88	189,000
5	88	215,100
6	61.8	259,600
7	61.8	279,512	19,912	19,912
8	61.8	300,820	21,308	41,220
9	61.8	305,022	4,201	45,422
10	61.8	308,136	3,114	48,536
11	61.8	310,444	2,308	50,844
12	61.8	312,155	1,711	52,555
13	61.8	313,424	1,268	53,824
14	61.8	314,364	940	54,764
15	61.8	315,061	697	55,461
16	61.8	315,577	517	55,977
17	61.8	315,960	383	56,360
18	61.8	316,244	284	56,644
19	61.8	316,455	210	56,855
20	61.8	316,610	156	57,010
21	61.8	316,726	116	57,126
22	61.8	316,812	86	57,212

 

 

Forwards

 

Mackenzie: That 14 will ruin any hopes of further fast cash generation. Hard to see holding him now.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		180,300
1	93	180,300
2	52	180,300
3	89	180,300
4	49	239,500
5	14	263,400
6	59.4	263,300
7	59.4	249,332	-13,968	-13,968
8	59.4	243,581	-5,751	-19,719
9	59.4	259,407	15,826	-3,893
10	59.4	271,138	11,731	7,838
11	59.4	279,834	8,696	16,534
12	59.4	286,280	6,446	22,980
13	59.4	291,057	4,778	27,757
14	59.4	294,599	3,542	31,299
15	59.4	297,224	2,625	33,924
16	59.4	299,170	1,946	35,870
17	59.4	300,612	1,442	37,312
18	59.4	301,682	1,069	38,382
19	59.4	302,474	793	39,174
20	59.4	303,061	587	39,761
21	59.4	303,497	435	40,197
22	59.4	303,820	323	40,520

 

Greene:  Two nice scored will really help him make enough cash to harvest. If he is just average the next two weeks he can probably go, but another big score and he may be worth keeping longer

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	33	123,900
2	49	123,900
3	51	123,900
4	73	151,900
5	76	190,900
6	56.4	231,400
7	56.4	262,414	31,014	31,014
8	56.4	278,058	15,644	46,658
9	56.4	280,980	2,923	49,580
10	56.4	283,147	2,166	51,747
11	56.4	284,753	1,606	53,353
12	56.4	285,943	1,190	54,543
13	56.4	286,826	882	55,426
14	56.4	287,480	654	56,080
15	56.4	287,964	485	56,564
16	56.4	288,324	359	56,924
17	56.4	288,590	266	57,190
18	56.4	288,788	197	57,388
19	56.4	288,934	146	57,534
20	56.4	289,042	108	57,642
21	56.4	289,123	80	57,723
22	56.4	289,182	60	57,782

 

Phillipou: More money to make, so far slow, but one big score and the shoots up.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		166,800
1	76	166,800
2	59	166,800
3	51	166,800
4	61	207,700
5	67	231,200
6	62.8	251,700
7	62.8	271,001	19,301	19,301
8	62.8	286,104	15,103	34,404
9	62.8	295,441	9,337	43,741
10	62.8	302,362	6,921	50,662
11	62.8	307,492	5,130	55,792
12	62.8	311,294	3,803	59,594
13	62.8	314,113	2,819	62,413
14	62.8	316,202	2,089	64,502
15	62.8	317,751	1,549	66,051
16	62.8	318,899	1,148	67,199
17	62.8	319,750	851	68,050
18	62.8	320,381	631	68,681
19	62.8	320,848	468	69,148
20	62.8	321,195	347	69,495
21	62.8	321,452	257	69,752
22	62.8	321,642	190	69,942

 

Phillips: Has a lot more money to  make.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,300
1	65	158,300
2		158,300
3	78	158,300
4	67	158,300
5	74	212,400
6	71.0	255,900
7	71.0	283,495	27,595	27,595
8	71.0	305,720	22,225	49,820
9	71.0	320,866	15,147	64,966
10	71.0	332,094	11,227	76,194
11	71.0	340,416	8,322	84,516
12	71.0	346,585	6,169	90,685
13	71.0	351,157	4,573	95,257
14	71.0	354,547	3,389	98,647
15	71.0	357,059	2,512	101,159
16	71.0	358,922	1,862	103,022
17	71.0	360,302	1,380	104,402
18	71.0	361,325	1,023	105,425
19	71.0	362,084	758	106,184
20	71.0	362,646	562	106,746
21	71.0	363,063	417	107,163
22	71.0	363,372	309	107,472

 

Chandler: Bigvarience is scores so far. Another 50 and he stalls, another 90 and he goes up more. We will know much better after this week. Assuming he plays.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	93	123,900
2	71	123,900
3	90	123,900
4	59	206,800
5	56	252,800
6	73.8	279,400
7	73.8	290,648	11,248	11,248
8	73.8	305,535	14,887	26,135
9	73.8	324,447	18,911	45,047
10	73.8	338,465	14,018	59,065
11	73.8	348,855	10,391	69,455
12	73.8	356,557	7,702	77,157
13	73.8	362,267	5,709	82,867
14	73.8	366,499	4,232	87,099
15	73.8	369,635	3,137	90,235
16	73.8	371,961	2,325	92,561
17	73.8	373,684	1,724	94,284
18	73.8	374,962	1,278	95,562
19	73.8	375,909	947	96,509
20	73.8	376,611	702	97,211
21	73.8	377,131	520	97,731
22	73.8	377,517	386	98,117

 

Please let me know if I missed someone or messed something up.

 

Dodgy Advice: .…Not sure I have any…I mostly am thinking not to pay a high cost per point right now.  That’s point expected, not current average unless you expect the current average for the rest of the season.  Under $5000 good, over $5000 less good. But, that’s a guideline and not a rule.  The Bont, for example, looks like a decent buy to me at $5,203. Wish I could trust DeFloggy….Ohhh there’s some bad advice, De Goey is way cheap per point right now! 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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