Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

The very late end to the round put me under the pump for getting this out, and I’m going to get the numbers in and see how things go after that.

The things I wanted to talk about are how important value is, especially when we are looking at crap cash generation, and the importance of fixing the weakest on field players first.

So, it is important to fix the weakest on field players first. Don’t stress on under performing premos; get out the guys who can go for 30’s.

Part of doing that is likely to be getting in players with lower averages but with much lower cost/point.  Fallen premiums and rising stars. Better a team with a few of them that a team with the top players and cows playing every week.

 

I did not add Rowston because he is just bad and unless he spikes will just stay bad and cheap. Same with Bruce and MacLean and other guys like that. Some evidence of money making needed to be worth my making the hamster do the math.

 

Defenders 

Sheezel: 

Last week: “I was worried he’d go like JHF did last season but, well, nothing like that.”

This week:  Did I forget to say no Jinkx? Yes, yes I did.  Well, he’s back, that’ll teach me.  I would never trade him out after one bad week. Probably not two, but so far just the one dodgy week after five tons in a row.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		198,300
1	114	198,300
2	114	198,300
3	120	198,300
4	111	304,500
5	100	381,800
6	53	431,600
7	102.0	438,800
8	102.0	440,891	2,091	2,091
9	102.0	443,348	2,457	4,548
10	102.0	467,388	24,041	28,588
11	102.0	485,208	17,820	46,408
12	102.0	498,418	13,209	59,618
13	102.0	508,209	9,791	69,409
14	102.0	515,466	7,258	76,666

Ginbey:  Looks like sell was the way to go for the short term. Long term, he could still pick up his scoring and make more money, but I have no idea how likely that is.  It can be very hard to tell the difference between a few bad games and a drop in output until afterwards.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		171,300
1	85	171,300
2	76	171,300
3	104	171,300
4	40	246,900
5	51	282,500
6	62	296,800
7	69.7	288,900
8	69.7	296,978	8,078	8,078
9	69.7	311,430	14,452	22,530
10	69.7	325,619	14,189	36,719
11	69.7	336,137	10,518	47,237
12	69.7	343,933	7,796	55,033
13	69.7	349,712	5,779	60,812
14	69.7	353,996	4,284	65,096

McKenna:  Still, has money to make. His BE is 62, which is just a bit higher than three of his six scores so far.  Not a lot of risk in holding one week, but if you can use that cash, well, he looks harvestable

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		167,500
1	93	167,500
2	78	167,500
3	57	167,500
4	86	227,300
5	55	268,500
6	57	287,800
7	71.0	302,600
8	71.0	307,284	4,684	4,684
9	71.0	318,012	10,727	15,412
10	71.0	332,312	14,300	29,712
11	71.0	342,912	10,600	40,312
12	71.0	350,769	7,857	48,169
13	71.0	356,593	5,824	53,993
14	71.0	360,910	4,317	58,310

Wilmot: Dang. With a 38 BE, he is a safe hold for another look if you want. Could certainly go bigger again. Rookies do tend to have blips and poor games. And role changes and just get tired. Argh.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	51	123,900
2	68	123,900
3	69	123,900
4	50	176,900
5	68	215,700
6	39	243,900
7	57.5	251,600
8	57.5	261,092	9,492	9,492
9	57.5	263,366	2,274	11,766
10	57.5	273,441	10,075	21,841
11	57.5	280,909	7,468	29,309
12	57.5	286,444	5,536	34,844
13	57.5	290,547	4,103	38,947
14	57.5	293,589	3,042	41,989

Cowan:  With a name like COWan you’d think he’d be a good cow, (Steve Martin voice) But Nooooooooooooo!!!!!!   Has not made enough to be worth trading out. Maybe if he give you enough to make a move you want to and lets you keep someone with better prospects, but in general he’s not ripe.  If he loses his job he will be a classic “problem” – not worth keeping or trading.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		117,300
1	38	117,300
2	51	117,300
3	51	117,300
4	51	150,300
5	42	180,600
6	35	198,500
7	44.7	204,800
8	44.7	206,978	2,178	2,178
9	44.7	209,802	2,824	5,002
10	44.7	216,278	6,477	11,478
11	44.7	221,079	4,801	16,279
12	44.7	224,638	3,559	19,838
13	44.7	227,275	2,638	22,475
14	44.7	229,231	1,955	24,431

L Jones: Blargh. He is pretty likely to make money one more week, not certain to. But, if he spuds up again, he will need to go. I don’t think he is worth keeping longer if you can uses the cash.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		228,100
1	5	228,100
2	76	228,100
3	68	228,100
4	45	236,300
5	88	260,600
6	53	283,400
7	55.8	293,900
8	55.8	307,108	13,208	13,208
9	55.8	302,312	-4,796	8,412
10	55.8	300,042	-2,270	6,142
11	55.8	298,360	-1,683	4,460
12	55.8	297,113	-1,247	3,213
13	55.8	296,188	-925	2,288
14	55.8	295,503	-685	1,603

Michalanney: 

Last week: He’ll need to keep scoring 80-90 to keep going up, but he might do that.

This week: He did not keep scoring 80-90. Rule of three says this is his high point, although he is capable of another big score at some point.  Hard to see keeping him.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		135,300
1	62	135,300
2	48	135,300
3	82	135,300
4	103	187,200
5	60	244,200
6	50	291,100
7	67.5	311,800
8	67.5	311,610	-190	-190
9	67.5	314,869	3,260	3,069
10	67.5	325,221	10,352	13,421
11	67.5	332,895	7,673	21,095
12	67.5	338,582	5,688	26,782
13	67.5	342,798	4,216	30,998
14	67.5	345,924	3,125	34,124

Buckley:  May be saying “At his average there is no rush at all to trade out.” for a while.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		205,000
1	76	205,000
2	99	205,000
3	99	205,000
4	80	275,900
5	78	330,300
6	87	360,100
7	86.5	377,400
8	86.5	393,791	16,391	16,391
9	86.5	409,796	16,004	32,396
10	86.5	421,432	11,637	44,032
11	86.5	430,058	8,626	52,658
12	86.5	436,451	6,394	59,051
13	86.5	441,191	4,739	63,791
14	86.5	444,704	3,513	67,304

Stocker:
Last Week: Well, he is certainly consistent! Also a hold as he slowly grows.

This Week: Did I forge to say “No Jinkx” again? Yes, yes I did.  Still not rushing to get him out, should make more, and probably go back to 70s, no Jinkx.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		216,400
1	74	216,400
2	74	216,400
3	70	216,400
4	77	258,900
5	78	291,100
6	58	317,400
7	71.8	331,300
8	71.8	339,819	8,519	8,519
9	71.8	343,337	3,518	12,037
10	71.8	352,218	8,881	20,918
11	71.8	358,801	6,583	27,501
12	71.8	363,680	4,879	32,380
13	71.8	367,297	3,617	35,997
14	71.8	369,978	2,681	38,678

Midfielders

 

Ashcroft:  Still growing and safer on field than most other cows. No Jinks.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		202,800
1	55	202,800
2	105	202,800
3	80	202,800
4	75	258,800
5	72	309,400
6	76	331,100
7	77.2	345,900
8	77.2	358,501	12,601	12,601
9	77.2	370,184	11,683	24,284
10	77.2	379,374	9,189	33,474
11	77.2	386,185	6,812	40,285
12	77.2	391,234	5,049	45,334
13	77.2	394,977	3,743	49,077
14	77.2	397,751	2,774	51,851

Baker: I am afraid to trade out the one guy I have who has very solid job security.  The way things are going he’ll end up my only mid cover. Also making money still.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	43	123,900
2	55	123,900
3	95	123,900
4	47	179,200
5	53	222,000
6	59	252,100
7	58.7	258,500
8	58.7	269,003	10,503	10,503
9	58.7	279,357	10,355	20,857
10	58.7	286,881	7,524	28,381
11	58.7	292,458	5,577	33,958
12	58.7	296,593	4,134	38,093
13	58.7	299,657	3,064	41,157
14	58.7	301,929	2,271	43,429

Hollands:  Remains himself.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		162,300
1	56	162,300
2	71	162,300
3	66	162,300
4	52	207,600
5	65	239,300
6	60	259,400
7	61.7	272,100
8	61.7	286,339	14,239	14,239
9	61.7	295,382	9,043	23,282
10	61.7	302,841	7,459	30,741
11	61.7	308,369	5,529	36,269
12	61.7	312,468	4,098	40,368
13	61.7	315,506	3,038	43,406
14	61.7	317,757	2,252	45,657

Callaghan: Wish i had held him. Is doing fine. Well even.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		244,000
1	101	244,000
2	45	244,000
3	37	244,000
4	65	263,600
5	72	261,700
6	77	271,900
7	66.2	298,800
8	66.2	319,054	20,254	20,254
9	66.2	331,421	12,368	32,621
10	66.2	335,677	4,255	36,877
11	66.2	338,831	3,154	40,031
12	66.2	341,169	2,338	42,369
13	66.2	342,902	1,733	44,102
14	66.2	344,186	1,285	45,386

 

Rucks

 

Ratugolea:  Playing well, might need to be kept as ruck/fwd  cover.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		174,000
1	55	174,000
2	31	174,000
3	47	174,000
4	88	189,000
5	88	215,100
6	75	259,600
7	64.0	305,700
8	64.0	329,534	23,834	23,834
9	64.0	336,318	6,784	30,618
10	64.0	336,359	41	30,659
11	64.0	336,389	30	30,689
12	64.0	336,411	22	30,711
13	64.0	336,428	17	30,728
14	64.0	336,440	12	30,740

Forwards

 

Mackenzie: Hope you did not hold. Losing money, and now not scoring.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		180,300
1	93	180,300
2	52	180,300
3	89	180,300
4	49	239,500
5	14	263,400
6	48	263,300
7	57.5	245,100
8	57.5	235,868	-9,232	-9,232
9	57.5	248,750	12,882	3,650
10	57.5	262,607	13,857	17,507
11	57.5	272,878	10,271	27,778
12	57.5	280,492	7,614	35,392
13	57.5	286,135	5,644	41,035
14	57.5	290,318	4,183	45,218

Greene:  Doing really well, looking good. Hold while his price rises.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	33	123,900
2	49	123,900
3	51	123,900
4	73	151,900
5	76	190,900
6	77	231,400
7	59.8	273,500
8	59.8	299,242	25,742	25,742
9	59.8	310,992	11,750	37,492
10	59.8	311,918	926	38,418
11	59.8	312,604	686	39,104
12	59.8	313,112	509	39,612
13	59.8	313,489	377	39,989
14	59.8	313,769	279	40,269

Phillipou: Bleck. A 39 does not do his price any favors. He has a 44 Break even, so can be held, but darn. His next rounds score will be crucial.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		166,800
1	76	166,800
2	59	166,800
3	51	166,800
4	61	207,700
5	67	231,200
6	39	251,700
7	58.8	261,800
8	58.8	268,803	7,003	7,003
9	58.8	270,292	1,488	8,492
10	58.8	280,388	10,097	18,588
11	58.8	287,872	7,484	26,072
12	58.8	293,420	5,548	31,620
13	58.8	297,532	4,112	35,732
14	58.8	300,580	3,048	38,780

Phillips: Pretty much is the same place as Phillipou.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,300
1	65	158,300
2		158,300
3	78	158,300
4	67	158,300
5	74	212,400
6	36	255,900
7	64.0	269,400
8	64.0	278,594	9,194	9,194
9	64.0	280,874	2,280	11,474
10	64.0	295,261	14,387	25,861
11	64.0	305,925	10,664	36,525
12	64.0	313,830	7,905	44,430
13	64.0	319,690	5,859	50,290
14	64.0	324,033	4,343	54,633

Chandler:

Last Week: Big variance is scores so far. Another 50 and he stalls, another 90 and he goes up more. We will know much better after this week. Assuming he plays.

This week: He’s going up more after an 85.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	93	123,900
2	71	123,900
3	90	123,900
4	59	206,800
5	56	252,800
6	85	279,400
7	75.7	297,200
8	75.7	318,548	21,348	21,348
9	75.7	343,290	24,742	46,090
10	75.7	357,398	14,108	60,198
11	75.7	367,855	10,457	70,655
12	75.7	375,606	7,751	78,406
13	75.7	381,352	5,746	84,152
14	75.7	385,611	4,259	88,411

 

Dodgy Advice:  Jordan De Goey. May not be dodgy. We shall see.

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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