Cow Talk Round 6–>7

Written by Father Dougal on April 26 2023

 

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

The very late end to the round put me under the pump for getting this out, and I’m going to get the numbers in and see how things go after that.

The things I wanted to talk about are how important value is, especially when we are looking at crap cash generation, and the importance of fixing the weakest on field players first.

So, it is important to fix the weakest on field players first. Don’t stress on under performing premos; get out the guys who can go for 30’s.

Part of doing that is likely to be getting in players with lower averages but with much lower cost/point.  Fallen premiums and rising stars. Better a team with a few of them that a team with the top players and cows playing every week.

 

I did not add Rowston because he is just bad and unless he spikes will just stay bad and cheap. Same with Bruce and MacLean and other guys like that. Some evidence of money making needed to be worth my making the hamster do the math.

 

Defenders 

Sheezel: 

Last week: “I was worried he’d go like JHF did last season but, well, nothing like that.”

This week:  Did I forget to say no Jinkx? Yes, yes I did.  Well, he’s back, that’ll teach me.  I would never trade him out after one bad week. Probably not two, but so far just the one dodgy week after five tons in a row.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 198,300
1 114 198,300
2 114 198,300
3 120 198,300
4 111 304,500
5 100 381,800
6 53 431,600
7 102.0 438,800
8 102.0 440,891 2,091 2,091
9 102.0 443,348 2,457 4,548
10 102.0 467,388 24,041 28,588
11 102.0 485,208 17,820 46,408
12 102.0 498,418 13,209 59,618
13 102.0 508,209 9,791 69,409
14 102.0 515,466 7,258 76,666

Ginbey:  Looks like sell was the way to go for the short term. Long term, he could still pick up his scoring and make more money, but I have no idea how likely that is.  It can be very hard to tell the difference between a few bad games and a drop in output until afterwards.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 171,300
1 85 171,300
2 76 171,300
3 104 171,300
4 40 246,900
5 51 282,500
6 62 296,800
7 69.7 288,900
8 69.7 296,978 8,078 8,078
9 69.7 311,430 14,452 22,530
10 69.7 325,619 14,189 36,719
11 69.7 336,137 10,518 47,237
12 69.7 343,933 7,796 55,033
13 69.7 349,712 5,779 60,812
14 69.7 353,996 4,284 65,096

McKenna:  Still, has money to make. His BE is 62, which is just a bit higher than three of his six scores so far.  Not a lot of risk in holding one week, but if you can use that cash, well, he looks harvestable

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 167,500
1 93 167,500
2 78 167,500
3 57 167,500
4 86 227,300
5 55 268,500
6 57 287,800
7 71.0 302,600
8 71.0 307,284 4,684 4,684
9 71.0 318,012 10,727 15,412
10 71.0 332,312 14,300 29,712
11 71.0 342,912 10,600 40,312
12 71.0 350,769 7,857 48,169
13 71.0 356,593 5,824 53,993
14 71.0 360,910 4,317 58,310

Wilmot: Dang. With a 38 BE, he is a safe hold for another look if you want. Could certainly go bigger again. Rookies do tend to have blips and poor games. And role changes and just get tired. Argh.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 51 123,900
2 68 123,900
3 69 123,900
4 50 176,900
5 68 215,700
6 39 243,900
7 57.5 251,600
8 57.5 261,092 9,492 9,492
9 57.5 263,366 2,274 11,766
10 57.5 273,441 10,075 21,841
11 57.5 280,909 7,468 29,309
12 57.5 286,444 5,536 34,844
13 57.5 290,547 4,103 38,947
14 57.5 293,589 3,042 41,989

Cowan:  With a name like COWan you’d think he’d be a good cow, (Steve Martin voice) But Nooooooooooooo!!!!!!   Has not made enough to be worth trading out. Maybe if he give you enough to make a move you want to and lets you keep someone with better prospects, but in general he’s not ripe.  If he loses his job he will be a classic “problem” – not worth keeping or trading.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 117,300
1 38 117,300
2 51 117,300
3 51 117,300
4 51 150,300
5 42 180,600
6 35 198,500
7 44.7 204,800
8 44.7 206,978 2,178 2,178
9 44.7 209,802 2,824 5,002
10 44.7 216,278 6,477 11,478
11 44.7 221,079 4,801 16,279
12 44.7 224,638 3,559 19,838
13 44.7 227,275 2,638 22,475
14 44.7 229,231 1,955 24,431

L Jones: Blargh. He is pretty likely to make money one more week, not certain to. But, if he spuds up again, he will need to go. I don’t think he is worth keeping longer if you can uses the cash.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 228,100
1 5 228,100
2 76 228,100
3 68 228,100
4 45 236,300
5 88 260,600
6 53 283,400
7 55.8 293,900
8 55.8 307,108 13,208 13,208
9 55.8 302,312 -4,796 8,412
10 55.8 300,042 -2,270 6,142
11 55.8 298,360 -1,683 4,460
12 55.8 297,113 -1,247 3,213
13 55.8 296,188 -925 2,288
14 55.8 295,503 -685 1,603

Michalanney: 

Last week: He’ll need to keep scoring 80-90 to keep going up, but he might do that.

This week: He did not keep scoring 80-90. Rule of three says this is his high point, although he is capable of another big score at some point.  Hard to see keeping him.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 135,300
1 62 135,300
2 48 135,300
3 82 135,300
4 103 187,200
5 60 244,200
6 50 291,100
7 67.5 311,800
8 67.5 311,610 -190 -190
9 67.5 314,869 3,260 3,069
10 67.5 325,221 10,352 13,421
11 67.5 332,895 7,673 21,095
12 67.5 338,582 5,688 26,782
13 67.5 342,798 4,216 30,998
14 67.5 345,924 3,125 34,124

Buckley:  May be sayingAt his average there is no rush at all to trade out.” for a while.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 205,000
1 76 205,000
2 99 205,000
3 99 205,000
4 80 275,900
5 78 330,300
6 87 360,100
7 86.5 377,400
8 86.5 393,791 16,391 16,391
9 86.5 409,796 16,004 32,396
10 86.5 421,432 11,637 44,032
11 86.5 430,058 8,626 52,658
12 86.5 436,451 6,394 59,051
13 86.5 441,191 4,739 63,791
14 86.5 444,704 3,513 67,304

Stocker:
Last Week: Well, he is certainly consistent! Also a hold as he slowly grows.

This Week: Did I forge to say “No Jinkx” again? Yes, yes I did.  Still not rushing to get him out, should make more, and probably go back to 70s, no Jinkx.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 216,400
1 74 216,400
2 74 216,400
3 70 216,400
4 77 258,900
5 78 291,100
6 58 317,400
7 71.8 331,300
8 71.8 339,819 8,519 8,519
9 71.8 343,337 3,518 12,037
10 71.8 352,218 8,881 20,918
11 71.8 358,801 6,583 27,501
12 71.8 363,680 4,879 32,380
13 71.8 367,297 3,617 35,997
14 71.8 369,978 2,681 38,678

Midfielders

 

Ashcroft:  Still growing and safer on field than most other cows. No Jinks.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 202,800
1 55 202,800
2 105 202,800
3 80 202,800
4 75 258,800
5 72 309,400
6 76 331,100
7 77.2 345,900
8 77.2 358,501 12,601 12,601
9 77.2 370,184 11,683 24,284
10 77.2 379,374 9,189 33,474
11 77.2 386,185 6,812 40,285
12 77.2 391,234 5,049 45,334
13 77.2 394,977 3,743 49,077
14 77.2 397,751 2,774 51,851

Baker: I am afraid to trade out the one guy I have who has very solid job security.  The way things are going he’ll end up my only mid cover. Also making money still.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 43 123,900
2 55 123,900
3 95 123,900
4 47 179,200
5 53 222,000
6 59 252,100
7 58.7 258,500
8 58.7 269,003 10,503 10,503
9 58.7 279,357 10,355 20,857
10 58.7 286,881 7,524 28,381
11 58.7 292,458 5,577 33,958
12 58.7 296,593 4,134 38,093
13 58.7 299,657 3,064 41,157
14 58.7 301,929 2,271 43,429

Hollands:  Remains himself.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 162,300
1 56 162,300
2 71 162,300
3 66 162,300
4 52 207,600
5 65 239,300
6 60 259,400
7 61.7 272,100
8 61.7 286,339 14,239 14,239
9 61.7 295,382 9,043 23,282
10 61.7 302,841 7,459 30,741
11 61.7 308,369 5,529 36,269
12 61.7 312,468 4,098 40,368
13 61.7 315,506 3,038 43,406
14 61.7 317,757 2,252 45,657

Callaghan: Wish i had held him. Is doing fine. Well even.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 244,000
1 101 244,000
2 45 244,000
3 37 244,000
4 65 263,600
5 72 261,700
6 77 271,900
7 66.2 298,800
8 66.2 319,054 20,254 20,254
9 66.2 331,421 12,368 32,621
10 66.2 335,677 4,255 36,877
11 66.2 338,831 3,154 40,031
12 66.2 341,169 2,338 42,369
13 66.2 342,902 1,733 44,102
14 66.2 344,186 1,285 45,386

 

Rucks

 

Ratugolea:  Playing well, might need to be kept as ruck/fwd  cover.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 174,000
1 55 174,000
2 31 174,000
3 47 174,000
4 88 189,000
5 88 215,100
6 75 259,600
7 64.0 305,700
8 64.0 329,534 23,834 23,834
9 64.0 336,318 6,784 30,618
10 64.0 336,359 41 30,659
11 64.0 336,389 30 30,689
12 64.0 336,411 22 30,711
13 64.0 336,428 17 30,728
14 64.0 336,440 12 30,740

Forwards

 

Mackenzie: Hope you did not hold. Losing money, and now not scoring.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 180,300
1 93 180,300
2 52 180,300
3 89 180,300
4 49 239,500
5 14 263,400
6 48 263,300
7 57.5 245,100
8 57.5 235,868 -9,232 -9,232
9 57.5 248,750 12,882 3,650
10 57.5 262,607 13,857 17,507
11 57.5 272,878 10,271 27,778
12 57.5 280,492 7,614 35,392
13 57.5 286,135 5,644 41,035
14 57.5 290,318 4,183 45,218

Greene:  Doing really well, looking good. Hold while his price rises.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 33 123,900
2 49 123,900
3 51 123,900
4 73 151,900
5 76 190,900
6 77 231,400
7 59.8 273,500
8 59.8 299,242 25,742 25,742
9 59.8 310,992 11,750 37,492
10 59.8 311,918 926 38,418
11 59.8 312,604 686 39,104
12 59.8 313,112 509 39,612
13 59.8 313,489 377 39,989
14 59.8 313,769 279 40,269

Phillipou: Bleck. A 39 does not do his price any favors. He has a 44 Break even, so can be held, but darn. His next rounds score will be crucial.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 166,800
1 76 166,800
2 59 166,800
3 51 166,800
4 61 207,700
5 67 231,200
6 39 251,700
7 58.8 261,800
8 58.8 268,803 7,003 7,003
9 58.8 270,292 1,488 8,492
10 58.8 280,388 10,097 18,588
11 58.8 287,872 7,484 26,072
12 58.8 293,420 5,548 31,620
13 58.8 297,532 4,112 35,732
14 58.8 300,580 3,048 38,780

Phillips: Pretty much is the same place as Phillipou.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 158,300
1 65 158,300
2 158,300
3 78 158,300
4 67 158,300
5 74 212,400
6 36 255,900
7 64.0 269,400
8 64.0 278,594 9,194 9,194
9 64.0 280,874 2,280 11,474
10 64.0 295,261 14,387 25,861
11 64.0 305,925 10,664 36,525
12 64.0 313,830 7,905 44,430
13 64.0 319,690 5,859 50,290
14 64.0 324,033 4,343 54,633

Chandler:

Last Week: Big variance is scores so far. Another 50 and he stalls, another 90 and he goes up more. We will know much better after this week. Assuming he plays.

This week: He’s going up more after an 85.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 93 123,900
2 71 123,900
3 90 123,900
4 59 206,800
5 56 252,800
6 85 279,400
7 75.7 297,200
8 75.7 318,548 21,348 21,348
9 75.7 343,290 24,742 46,090
10 75.7 357,398 14,108 60,198
11 75.7 367,855 10,457 70,655
12 75.7 375,606 7,751 78,406
13 75.7 381,352 5,746 84,152
14 75.7 385,611 4,259 88,411

 

Dodgy Advice:  Jordan De Goey. May not be dodgy. We shall see.

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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