Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

So, given how fast the trade are being used, at least by some of us, it is time to talk about what I call the “Hotel California” effect.

The what?

Hotel California is a super old song that old people seem to like and act surprised that everyone under 50 doesn’t know or care about it.

Oh….I know more yet not why he’s calling it that.

Because it is about a place you can check in but not check out.

Like a Roach motel!

Not a bad analogy for his team.

Sigh. Yeah, well, I will explain

We start with 30 players. When we drop down to 29 trades left, one of those players is mathematically certain to be in the team at the end of the season. Each trade used adds one to the number of player certain to be left in the team at the end of the year. When you have zero trade left, the whole team will be the same until the end of the year.

Right…..so….?

So, at this point, we have to remember that we are bringing in player to hold. Few if any of the downgrades we bring in will be traded out, most will stay, and if they stay but do not play, well..

That’s bad.

Yes

Very bad maybe

Right. It also means we have to think about who we bring in for the season premo-wise.  Bringing in someone because their next match up is good when they are going to be with you all season, well, not what to focus on.

Oh! Oh! And if you fill your last spot in a line but then someone you really want comes along, you have to sideways trade to manage it, which is hard to pull off!

Also right!

Right now, every move we make

Every breath you take!

Every herring you bake!

Sigh, anyways, every trade we do is increasingly permanent. Early in the season we can fix stuff. Late in the season we only do the most urgent stuff with our last few trades. Right now we are transitioning between fixing and being stuck, and being aware of that might help us be more ready for the end stage.

 

Defenders 

Sheezel: Despite the blip, still looking like a keeper

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		198,300
1	114	198,300
2	114	198,300
3	120	198,300
4	111	304,500
5	100	381,800
6	53	431,600
7	107	438,800
8	110	443,200
9	103.6	452,000
10	103.6	480,434	28,434	28,434
11	103.6	499,980	19,546	47,980
12	103.6	511,577	11,598	59,577
13	103.6	520,174	8,597	68,174
14	103.6	526,546	6,372	74,546
15	103.6	531,270	4,723	79,270

Ginbey:  Slow growth hopefully.  Tonning again would help a lot, other wise he may be topped out

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		171,300
1	85	171,300
2	76	171,300
3	104	171,300
4	40	246,900
5	51	282,500
6	62	296,800
7	39	288,900
8	61	283,100
9	64.8	284,000
10	64.8	285,221	1,221	1,221
11	64.8	297,803	12,582	13,803
12	64.8	308,830	11,027	24,830
13	64.8	317,004	8,174	33,004
14	64.8	323,062	6,059	39,062
15	64.8	327,553	4,491	43,553

McKenna:  A lot of Meh. If he scores well at home he may go up a decent amount more, no rush to trade.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		167,500
1	93	167,500
2	78	167,500
3	57	167,500
4	86	227,300
5	55	268,500
6	57	287,800
7	70	302,600
8	46	306,900
9	67.8	306,700
10	67.8	310,663	3,963	3,963
11	67.8	312,581	1,918	5,881
12	67.8	323,865	11,284	17,165
13	67.8	332,229	8,364	25,529
14	67.8	338,429	6,200	31,729
15	67.8	343,025	4,596	36,325

Wilmot: He did ok last week, and no rush to get rid this week.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	51	123,900
2	68	123,900
3	69	123,900
4	50	176,900
5	68	215,700
6	39	243,900
7	63	251,600
8	50	263,600
9	57.3	264,900
10	57.3	273,558	8,658	8,658
11	57.3	277,368	3,810	12,468
12	57.3	283,479	6,112	18,579
13	57.3	288,010	4,530	23,110
14	57.3	291,368	3,358	26,468
15	57.3	293,857	2,489	28,957

Cowan:  Did not play. 

 

L Jones: Looks like time to sell.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		228,100
1	5	228,100
2	76	228,100
3	68	228,100
4	45	236,300
5	88	260,600
6	53	283,400
7	54	293,900
8	41	306,300
9	53.8	294,800
10	53.8	285,972	-8,828	-8,828
11	53.8	279,314	-6,657	-15,486
12	53.8	280,161	847	-14,639
13	53.8	280,789	628	-14,011
14	53.8	281,254	465	-13,546
15	53.8	281,599	345	-13,201

Michalanney: Lost a bit, might make it back, but seems to have hit his level

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		135,300
1	62	135,300
2	48	135,300
3	82	135,300
4	103	187,200
5	60	244,200
6	50	291,100
7	51	311,800
8	64	304,100
9	65.0	300,900
10	65.0	304,664	3,764	3,764
11	65.0	313,802	9,138	12,902
12	65.0	321,029	7,227	20,129
13	65.0	326,386	5,357	25,486
14	65.0	330,357	3,971	29,457
15	65.0	333,301	2,943	32,401

Buckley:  May be saying “At his average there is no rush at all to trade out.” for a while.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		205,000
1	76	205,000
2	99	205,000
3	99	205,000
4	80	275,900
5	78	330,300
6	87	360,100
7	91	377,400
8	99	395,800
9	88.6	419,900
10	88.6	437,594	17,694	17,694
11	88.6	449,633	12,039	29,733
12	88.6	453,853	4,219	33,953
13	88.6	456,980	3,127	37,080
14	88.6	459,298	2,318	39,398
15	88.6	461,017	1,718	41,117

Stocker: He seems pretty stable and he tonned up! Hold until after his bye

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		216,400
1	74	216,400
2	74	216,400
3	70	216,400
4	77	258,900
5	78	291,100
6	58	317,400
7	69	331,300
8	103	338,500
9	75.4	356,000
10	75.4	376,058	20,058	20,058
11	75.4	393,817	17,759	37,817
12	75.4	394,454	637	38,454
13	75.4	394,926	472	38,926
14	75.4	395,276	350	39,276
15	75.4	395,535	259	39,535

Mitchell: Still lot of money to make. Another good score would help.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1		123,900
2		123,900
3		123,900
4		123,900
5	67	123,900
6	79	123,900
7	41	123,900
8	54	176,600
9	60.3	210,300
10	60.3	226,284	15,984	15,984
11	60.3	246,860	20,577	36,560
12	60.3	264,947	18,087	54,647
13	60.3	278,354	13,407	68,054
14	60.3	288,291	9,938	77,991
15	60.3	295,658	7,366	85,358

 

Midfielders

 

Ashcroft:  Rookies. Ton then a 37. Next week at home and bye coming up, so not a sure trade out. Might be worth keeping.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		202,800
1	55	202,800
2	105	202,800
3	80	202,800
4	75	258,800
5	72	309,400
6	76	331,100
7	103	345,900
8	37	370,200
9	75.4	373,200
10	75.4	374,297	1,097	1,097
11	75.4	362,583	-11,714	-10,617
12	75.4	371,302	8,719	-1,898
13	75.4	377,765	6,463	4,565
14	75.4	382,555	4,790	9,355
15	75.4	386,106	3,551	12,906

Baker: I am still afraid to trade out the one guy I have who has very solid job security.  The way things are going he’ll end up my only mid cover. Also making money still, at least maybe a little.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	43	123,900
2	55	123,900
3	95	123,900
4	47	179,200
5	53	222,000
6	59	252,100
7	69	258,500
8	50	273,700
9	58.9	284,200
10	58.9	291,321	7,121	7,121
11	58.9	292,009	687	7,809
12	58.9	296,543	4,534	12,343
13	58.9	299,903	3,361	15,703
14	58.9	302,395	2,491	18,195
15	58.9	304,241	1,847	20,041

Hollands:  Maybe hit his level.  Not a lot of cash to make unless he goes bigger than he has been.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		162,300
1	56	162,300
2	71	162,300
3	66	162,300
4	52	207,600
5	65	239,300
6	60	259,400
7	60	272,100
8	51	285,600
9	60.1	289,900
10	60.1	292,486	2,586	2,586
11	60.1	294,459	1,973	4,559
12	60.1	300,059	5,600	10,159
13	60.1	304,210	4,151	14,310
14	60.1	307,288	3,077	17,388
15	60.1	309,569	2,281	19,669

Callaghan: Looks like he has a week left unless he goes big again.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		244,000
1	101	244,000
2	45	244,000
3	37	244,000
4	65	263,600
5	72	261,700
6	77	271,900
7	88	298,800
8	59	328,300
9	68.0	345,700
10	68.0	353,743	8,043	8,043
11	68.0	350,635	-3,108	4,935
12	68.0	352,413	1,778	6,713
13	68.0	353,730	1,318	8,030
14	68.0	354,707	977	9,007
15	68.0	355,431	724	9,731

Rucks

 

Ratugolea:  Is he even a cow? More like a backup ruck.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		174,000
1	55	174,000
2	31	174,000
3	47	174,000
4	88	189,000
5	88	215,100
6	75	259,600
7	43	305,700
8	88	320,000
9	64.4	331,300
10	64.4	334,170	2,870	2,870
11	64.4	345,989	11,820	14,689
12	64.4	344,038	-1,952	12,738
13	64.4	342,591	-1,447	11,291
14	64.4	341,519	-1,072	10,219
15	64.4	340,724	-795	9,424

Forwards

 

Mackenzie: Did not play.

Greene:  Barf!  Followed up that 28 with a 17.  Sell or plan to hold a looong time.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	33	123,900
2	49	123,900
3	51	123,900
4	73	151,900
5	76	190,900
6	77	231,400
7	28	273,500
8	17	284,800
9	50.5	267,100
10	50.5	241,292	-25,808	-25,808
11	50.5	232,365	-8,927	-34,735
12	50.5	240,939	8,574	-26,161
13	50.5	247,294	6,355	-19,806
14	50.5	252,005	4,711	-15,095
15	50.5	255,497	3,492	-11,603

Phillipou: Well, he has gone so far down even 50s will have him going back up. No idea what to do with him.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		166,800
1	76	166,800
2	59	166,800
3	51	166,800
4	61	207,700
5	67	231,200
6	39	251,700
7	20	261,800
8	56	251,200
9	53.6	238,900
10	53.6	235,863	-3,037	-3,037
11	53.6	248,860	12,997	9,960
12	53.6	257,417	8,557	18,517
13	53.6	263,760	6,343	24,860
14	53.6	268,461	4,702	29,561
15	53.6	271,946	3,485	33,046

Phillips: Did not play

Chandler: Looks like hold another week at least.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	93	123,900
2	71	123,900
3	90	123,900
4	59	206,800
5	56	252,800
6	85	279,400
7	104	297,200
8	57	331,400
9	76.9	358,000
10	76.9	373,233	15,233	15,233
11	76.9	372,224	-1,009	14,224
12	76.9	380,489	8,265	22,489
13	76.9	386,615	6,126	28,615
14	76.9	391,156	4,541	33,156
15	76.9	394,522	3,366	36,522

Davey: He plays sometimes and score more than zero when he does……

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		117,300
1	58	117,300
2	45	117,300
3	66	117,300
4	45	163,400
5		191,600
6	44	191,600
7		211,900
8	31	211,900
9	48.2	212,000
10	48.2	212,995	995	995
11	48.2	215,622	2,627	3,622
12	48.2	225,354	9,732	13,354
13	48.2	232,568	7,214	20,568
14	48.2	237,915	5,347	25,915
15	48.2	241,878	3,964	29,878

Dodgy Advice:   Save up for Darcy Cameron next week!

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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