Cow Talk Round 8–>9

Written by Father Dougal on May 10 2023

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

So, given how fast the trade are being used, at least by some of us, it is time to talk about what I call the “Hotel California” effect.

The what?

Hotel California is a super old song that old people seem to like and act surprised that everyone under 50 doesn’t know or care about it.

Oh….I know more yet not why he’s calling it that.

Because it is about a place you can check in but not check out.

Like a Roach motel!

Not a bad analogy for his team.

Sigh. Yeah, well, I will explain

We start with 30 players. When we drop down to 29 trades left, one of those players is mathematically certain to be in the team at the end of the season. Each trade used adds one to the number of player certain to be left in the team at the end of the year. When you have zero trade left, the whole team will be the same until the end of the year.

Right…..so….?

So, at this point, we have to remember that we are bringing in player to hold. Few if any of the downgrades we bring in will be traded out, most will stay, and if they stay but do not play, well..

That’s bad.

Yes

Very bad maybe

Right. It also means we have to think about who we bring in for the season premo-wise.  Bringing in someone because their next match up is good when they are going to be with you all season, well, not what to focus on.

Oh! Oh! And if you fill your last spot in a line but then someone you really want comes along, you have to sideways trade to manage it, which is hard to pull off!

Also right!

Right now, every move we make

Every breath you take!

Every herring you bake!

Sigh, anyways, every trade we do is increasingly permanent. Early in the season we can fix stuff. Late in the season we only do the most urgent stuff with our last few trades. Right now we are transitioning between fixing and being stuck, and being aware of that might help us be more ready for the end stage.

 

Defenders 

Sheezel: Despite the blip, still looking like a keeper

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 198,300
1 114 198,300
2 114 198,300
3 120 198,300
4 111 304,500
5 100 381,800
6 53 431,600
7 107 438,800
8 110 443,200
9 103.6 452,000
10 103.6 480,434 28,434 28,434
11 103.6 499,980 19,546 47,980
12 103.6 511,577 11,598 59,577
13 103.6 520,174 8,597 68,174
14 103.6 526,546 6,372 74,546
15 103.6 531,270 4,723 79,270

Ginbey:  Slow growth hopefully.  Tonning again would help a lot, other wise he may be topped out

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 171,300
1 85 171,300
2 76 171,300
3 104 171,300
4 40 246,900
5 51 282,500
6 62 296,800
7 39 288,900
8 61 283,100
9 64.8 284,000
10 64.8 285,221 1,221 1,221
11 64.8 297,803 12,582 13,803
12 64.8 308,830 11,027 24,830
13 64.8 317,004 8,174 33,004
14 64.8 323,062 6,059 39,062
15 64.8 327,553 4,491 43,553

McKenna:  A lot of Meh. If he scores well at home he may go up a decent amount more, no rush to trade.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 167,500
1 93 167,500
2 78 167,500
3 57 167,500
4 86 227,300
5 55 268,500
6 57 287,800
7 70 302,600
8 46 306,900
9 67.8 306,700
10 67.8 310,663 3,963 3,963
11 67.8 312,581 1,918 5,881
12 67.8 323,865 11,284 17,165
13 67.8 332,229 8,364 25,529
14 67.8 338,429 6,200 31,729
15 67.8 343,025 4,596 36,325

Wilmot: He did ok last week, and no rush to get rid this week.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 51 123,900
2 68 123,900
3 69 123,900
4 50 176,900
5 68 215,700
6 39 243,900
7 63 251,600
8 50 263,600
9 57.3 264,900
10 57.3 273,558 8,658 8,658
11 57.3 277,368 3,810 12,468
12 57.3 283,479 6,112 18,579
13 57.3 288,010 4,530 23,110
14 57.3 291,368 3,358 26,468
15 57.3 293,857 2,489 28,957

Cowan:  Did not play. 

 

L Jones: Looks like time to sell.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 228,100
1 5 228,100
2 76 228,100
3 68 228,100
4 45 236,300
5 88 260,600
6 53 283,400
7 54 293,900
8 41 306,300
9 53.8 294,800
10 53.8 285,972 -8,828 -8,828
11 53.8 279,314 -6,657 -15,486
12 53.8 280,161 847 -14,639
13 53.8 280,789 628 -14,011
14 53.8 281,254 465 -13,546
15 53.8 281,599 345 -13,201

Michalanney: Lost a bit, might make it back, but seems to have hit his level

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 135,300
1 62 135,300
2 48 135,300
3 82 135,300
4 103 187,200
5 60 244,200
6 50 291,100
7 51 311,800
8 64 304,100
9 65.0 300,900
10 65.0 304,664 3,764 3,764
11 65.0 313,802 9,138 12,902
12 65.0 321,029 7,227 20,129
13 65.0 326,386 5,357 25,486
14 65.0 330,357 3,971 29,457
15 65.0 333,301 2,943 32,401

Buckley:  May be sayingAt his average there is no rush at all to trade out.” for a while.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 205,000
1 76 205,000
2 99 205,000
3 99 205,000
4 80 275,900
5 78 330,300
6 87 360,100
7 91 377,400
8 99 395,800
9 88.6 419,900
10 88.6 437,594 17,694 17,694
11 88.6 449,633 12,039 29,733
12 88.6 453,853 4,219 33,953
13 88.6 456,980 3,127 37,080
14 88.6 459,298 2,318 39,398
15 88.6 461,017 1,718 41,117

Stocker: He seems pretty stable and he tonned up! Hold until after his bye

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 216,400
1 74 216,400
2 74 216,400
3 70 216,400
4 77 258,900
5 78 291,100
6 58 317,400
7 69 331,300
8 103 338,500
9 75.4 356,000
10 75.4 376,058 20,058 20,058
11 75.4 393,817 17,759 37,817
12 75.4 394,454 637 38,454
13 75.4 394,926 472 38,926
14 75.4 395,276 350 39,276
15 75.4 395,535 259 39,535

Mitchell: Still lot of money to make. Another good score would help.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 123,900
2 123,900
3 123,900
4 123,900
5 67 123,900
6 79 123,900
7 41 123,900
8 54 176,600
9 60.3 210,300
10 60.3 226,284 15,984 15,984
11 60.3 246,860 20,577 36,560
12 60.3 264,947 18,087 54,647
13 60.3 278,354 13,407 68,054
14 60.3 288,291 9,938 77,991
15 60.3 295,658 7,366 85,358

 

Midfielders

 

Ashcroft:  Rookies. Ton then a 37. Next week at home and bye coming up, so not a sure trade out. Might be worth keeping.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 202,800
1 55 202,800
2 105 202,800
3 80 202,800
4 75 258,800
5 72 309,400
6 76 331,100
7 103 345,900
8 37 370,200
9 75.4 373,200
10 75.4 374,297 1,097 1,097
11 75.4 362,583 -11,714 -10,617
12 75.4 371,302 8,719 -1,898
13 75.4 377,765 6,463 4,565
14 75.4 382,555 4,790 9,355
15 75.4 386,106 3,551 12,906

Baker: I am still afraid to trade out the one guy I have who has very solid job security.  The way things are going he’ll end up my only mid cover. Also making money still, at least maybe a little.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 43 123,900
2 55 123,900
3 95 123,900
4 47 179,200
5 53 222,000
6 59 252,100
7 69 258,500
8 50 273,700
9 58.9 284,200
10 58.9 291,321 7,121 7,121
11 58.9 292,009 687 7,809
12 58.9 296,543 4,534 12,343
13 58.9 299,903 3,361 15,703
14 58.9 302,395 2,491 18,195
15 58.9 304,241 1,847 20,041

Hollands:  Maybe hit his level.  Not a lot of cash to make unless he goes bigger than he has been.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 162,300
1 56 162,300
2 71 162,300
3 66 162,300
4 52 207,600
5 65 239,300
6 60 259,400
7 60 272,100
8 51 285,600
9 60.1 289,900
10 60.1 292,486 2,586 2,586
11 60.1 294,459 1,973 4,559
12 60.1 300,059 5,600 10,159
13 60.1 304,210 4,151 14,310
14 60.1 307,288 3,077 17,388
15 60.1 309,569 2,281 19,669

Callaghan: Looks like he has a week left unless he goes big again.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 244,000
1 101 244,000
2 45 244,000
3 37 244,000
4 65 263,600
5 72 261,700
6 77 271,900
7 88 298,800
8 59 328,300
9 68.0 345,700
10 68.0 353,743 8,043 8,043
11 68.0 350,635 -3,108 4,935
12 68.0 352,413 1,778 6,713
13 68.0 353,730 1,318 8,030
14 68.0 354,707 977 9,007
15 68.0 355,431 724 9,731

Rucks

 

Ratugolea:  Is he even a cow? More like a backup ruck.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 174,000
1 55 174,000
2 31 174,000
3 47 174,000
4 88 189,000
5 88 215,100
6 75 259,600
7 43 305,700
8 88 320,000
9 64.4 331,300
10 64.4 334,170 2,870 2,870
11 64.4 345,989 11,820 14,689
12 64.4 344,038 -1,952 12,738
13 64.4 342,591 -1,447 11,291
14 64.4 341,519 -1,072 10,219
15 64.4 340,724 -795 9,424

Forwards

 

Mackenzie: Did not play.

Greene:  Barf!  Followed up that 28 with a 17.  Sell or plan to hold a looong time.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 33 123,900
2 49 123,900
3 51 123,900
4 73 151,900
5 76 190,900
6 77 231,400
7 28 273,500
8 17 284,800
9 50.5 267,100
10 50.5 241,292 -25,808 -25,808
11 50.5 232,365 -8,927 -34,735
12 50.5 240,939 8,574 -26,161
13 50.5 247,294 6,355 -19,806
14 50.5 252,005 4,711 -15,095
15 50.5 255,497 3,492 -11,603

Phillipou: Well, he has gone so far down even 50s will have him going back up. No idea what to do with him.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 166,800
1 76 166,800
2 59 166,800
3 51 166,800
4 61 207,700
5 67 231,200
6 39 251,700
7 20 261,800
8 56 251,200
9 53.6 238,900
10 53.6 235,863 -3,037 -3,037
11 53.6 248,860 12,997 9,960
12 53.6 257,417 8,557 18,517
13 53.6 263,760 6,343 24,860
14 53.6 268,461 4,702 29,561
15 53.6 271,946 3,485 33,046

Phillips: Did not play

Chandler: Looks like hold another week at least.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 93 123,900
2 71 123,900
3 90 123,900
4 59 206,800
5 56 252,800
6 85 279,400
7 104 297,200
8 57 331,400
9 76.9 358,000
10 76.9 373,233 15,233 15,233
11 76.9 372,224 -1,009 14,224
12 76.9 380,489 8,265 22,489
13 76.9 386,615 6,126 28,615
14 76.9 391,156 4,541 33,156
15 76.9 394,522 3,366 36,522

Davey: He plays sometimes and score more than zero when he does……

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 117,300
1 58 117,300
2 45 117,300
3 66 117,300
4 45 163,400
5 191,600
6 44 191,600
7 211,900
8 31 211,900
9 48.2 212,000
10 48.2 212,995 995 995
11 48.2 215,622 2,627 3,622
12 48.2 225,354 9,732 13,354
13 48.2 232,568 7,214 20,568
14 48.2 237,915 5,347 25,915
15 48.2 241,878 3,964 29,878

Dodgy Advice:   Save up for Darcy Cameron next week!

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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7 thoughts on “Cow Talk Round 8–>9”

  1. Thank you Father, for another insightful and entertaining edition of your wonderful Cow Talk.

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  2. 2 questions
    1. If I go with Drury this week I can get in Dawson for Ashcroft. Do we think Drury has enough JS to bring him in a week before th bubble?

    2. Thoughts on holding off moving Grundy to Gawn and bringing in Cameron next week (if he comes in)?

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  3. With the rookies on the bubble this week less than impressive, and the cows I own all looking like they can be held a week I’m thinking of not trading for the first time this season.

    TU: Controversial but it could just work..
    TD: You crazy, trade you mad bastard!

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    1. If there isn’t anyone to upgrade to, and no one worth downgrading then hold the trades me thinks.

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  4. Is it worth tarding in Drury early to get Gulden before his price rise for my second last forward spot.

    TU: trade away.
    TD: hold your horse.

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    2

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