Fallen Premiums – Round 11, 2024

Written by Abs on May 22 2024

The last round before the byes kick-off. As such, I won’t be discussing the likes of Lachie Whitfield, Tom Green, Luke Davies-Uniacke this week. We’ll be looking at those that offer at least 2 games before hitting their bye.

Currently sitting at 212 OR with the moves I’ve been most unhappy with coming from those that went against my own data/research in favour of playing the ownership % game. So a quick reminder to back your gut & research before what others are doing and what the content creators are saying!

And premiums that score like premiums plz.


Dan Houston (PTA, $578.6k, (-$14.5k), 113.2 AVG, 97 BE) believe it or not ‘Houston we do not have a problem’ has fallen below his starting price and is cherry ripe to be selected this week. Sitting at 4th overall for defenders, with a few kick-ins being thrown his way this season, and the Adelaide Oval games quieting down in the second half of the season, Houston in my opinion is well on track to finish top 6. I’ll also quickly touch on Houston’s AO run, to start the season Port had 7/10 games at Adelaide Oval. And from this point forward 6/13 of the remaining games will come at their home ground. Previous years show that Houston scores best while playing at home, but that trend hasn’t quite continued this season. Scores of 108, 141, 89 resulting in an average of 112.6 points from the small sample size this season hasn’t concerned me whatsoever with his prospects post-bye. Has a great bye, sharing only with Fremantle, for those in need of a defender, Dan Houston should definitely be a priority with a nice fixtures against North Melbourne this week.

Backing it up…
Luke Ryan, 688k, 164 BE
Steven May, 483k, 164 BE
Nic Martin, 573k, 148 BE
Nick Vlaustin, 502k, 144 BE

Nick Daicos, 668k, 134 BE


Credit: @JoshGarlepp

Matt Rowell (GCS, $566.5k, (-$5.3k), 119.3 AVG, 116 BE) 35 touches, 3 goal assists, 10 tackles, a goal & 128 SC points. Due to such a high-scoring game, Rowell’s SC score doesn’t quite correlate to his impact and let non-owners sleep easy. Pre-season there was doubts to just how viable any of the Suns midfielders would be as SC selections, and we can quite easily say all three of Anderson, Rowell and Miller are currently viable mid premos, with Rowell looking set to challenge as a top 8 mid. There’s not much to say about Matty Rowell, the value is phenomenal, averaging 119.3 points for the season, which includes two below-par score that has seen him fall to such a favourable price. Carlton this week which seems difficult on-paper, however over their last five games, Carlton has ranked the 5th easiest match-up for inside mids. Allowing Dangerfield (81 with 46% TOG), Daicos (150), Viney (117), Warner (172), all go large. Could definitely wait a further week with his breakeven, but definitely one to target at such a low price.

Clayton Oliver (MEL, $524.8k, (-$149.3k), 93 AVG, 92 BE) 26 touches, 20 contested, 62%, with 8 tackles resulting in 124 points as the Eagles upset Melbourne Sunday evening. Firstly, eye-test wise, Oliver’s hands have definitely been much improved since the bye, but the lack of transitional points in conjunction with the change in Melbourne’s style and all the other asterisks regarding Clarry has him at a price where the risk/reward has begun to even out. While I can’t see Oliver returning to the highs of his previous seasons (especially this year), he’s still at a price where at the absolute worst you can look to correct him at the bye. As it stands I firmly prefer Matt Rowell for 40k extra, but I can’t blame you if your eyes are set on what was once SC royalty.

Limbo land…
Josh Dunkley, 630k, 160 BE
Zach Merrett, 609k, 157 BE
Connor Rozee, 522k, 157 BE*
Rory Laird, 555k, 141 BE
Marcus Bontempelli, 636k, 139 BE
Errol Gulden, 538k, 136 BE


Rowan Marshall (STK, $588.1k, (-$51k), 113.3 AVG, 7 BE) looks to be well and truly over that knee injury that had him hobbling around like he was an extra in a George A. Romero movie a few weeks ago. Unlike that fake premo burn-man Jack Steele (yes I’m salty), RoMo has taken full advantage of the soft fixture run, averaging 146.7 points in his last three games. The question however does become, who do we even want to finish our ruck-line? Tim English, Max Gawn, Rowan Marshall, all three offer potential to finish top 2, with English (167 BE) set to drop to a very reasonable 570-odd. For those with Sweet or Jackson at R2, Marshall is definitely one to consider, however waiting for Tim English is just as viable. Purely comes down to preference.

Jarrod Witts, 577k, 172 BE
Max Gawn, 669k, 167 BE
Tim English, 596k, 167 BE
Tristan Xerri, 560k, 145 BE
Sean Darcy, 567k, 142 BE


Shai Bolton (RIC, $415.9k, (-$124.8k), 83.6 AVG, 106 BE) I’ll be honest, I just pick names out of a hat for who to mention in the forward-line. The best buy is still Zac Fisher with Harry Sheezel now seeming to be permanently shifted up the ground. Bolton scores like a KPF, gives you a 130 one week, then a 50 the next. The CBA’s have been sufficient since Tigers bye, averaging 68.5%, however the scoring since that hot-start has been Hawthorn choking against Port Adelaide levels of terrible (averaging 59.3 points). So if you’re currently thinking, “why even mention this glorified rookie?” Well, the fixture does begin to open up a tad for Richmond (it’s just a shame they don’t get to play themselves). Bombers this week…. But then, Cats, Crows, Hawks before the bye. A straight swap from Wilson to Bolton could be on the cards for those after a F7 with a massive ceiling. Definitely not one to target this week, but keep him on your watch-list, especially as Tigers do get a few players slowly returning over the next few weeks.

Forward thinking…
Dylan Moore, 531k, 165 BE
Jeremy Cameron, 468k, 145 BE


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

9 thoughts on “Fallen Premiums – Round 11, 2024”

      1. GWS has the Rd12 bye, so you’ll only get one game from him beforehand, so check your bye structure. Breakeven is 71, so you should be able to get him for a little over $500k after his bye, which is still a great price.


    1. Excluding his early injury game, he is averaging 117. Compared to Lachie Neale, you get the same average per full game for over $100k cheaper.


  1. Bit late to this thread, but what’s the groups thoughts on Errol Gulden as a fallen premium? $538.4k with a BE of 136. Average of 101.9 p/g this year and 111.3 p/g last year.

    On a winning side… has 6 of his next 13 matches at the SCG. Are there enough points to go around that Sydney outfit? Does he come home like a freight-train?



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *