With the first week of the byes out of the way, let’s strap-in for three more weeks of fun! I’ve also taken a heavy data approach on this edition of Fallen Premiums as I was having a look for my own sake. If you prefer having a more data-focused approach let me know in the comments.
Currently sitting at 177th overall, and for myself and others looking to make up ground, it’s best to go have a look and see who’s worth anti-podding, and who’s a potential POD that could either let you shoot up the ranks or die tryin’.
Defenders
Lachie Whitfield (GWS, $495.7k, (-$23.3k), 99.2 AVG, 105 BE) I’ll be honest, he is not someone I’d remotely consider trading in. Current owners have not been having a great time, and more then that, I’ll have a quick dive into his immediate fixtures which have painted a less then ideal picture. The following stats and data are from @Jaiden_Popowski: For the 2024 season, Lachie Whitfield’s Fantasy Scoring has been split into 16.4 points from stoppages, and 81.6 points from transitional play. GWS play the following teams over the next five games. Hawthorn (7th easiest transitional matchup), Port Adelaide (2nd hardest), Sydney (8th hardest + Jordon tag), Adelaide (4th hardest), Carlton (hardest transitional matchup + potential Cincotta tag) over the next five games. 419 people have currently traded Whitfield in, and for me he’s a steer-clear.
Backing it up…
Dan Houston, 566k, 152 BE
Elliot Yeo, 527k, 149 BE
Midfielders
Luke Davies-Uniacke (NTH, $576k, (-$59.1k), 104.5 AVG, 64 BE) I started the man, watched more North Melbourne then I care to admit, and then wrote about him during the stretch of sub-tons. Paraphrasing what I said during that time, “LDU isn’t SuperCoach relevant until changes are made in the North Melbourne midfield mix.” Well, since then, Clarkson has shifted the magnets with the midfield mix, which in conjunction with a softer fixture has seen LDU become SC relevant once again. I’ve also had a look into where exactly LDU’s scoring source was coming from. Up until Round 7 when Clarkson re-shaped the midfield, LDU only had 2/6 games where he had more transitional points than stoppage points. One was against Carlton where he was tagged at stoppages, scoring a measly 67, the other was against Geelong for his 87 points. Since, LDU has completely flipped the scoring stream, the Adelaide game in round 8 was the last time Davies-Uniacke’s stoppage scoring outweighed his transitional-play scoring. This can also be attributed to the opponents North had early in the season, however the latest game pre-bye (Port Adelaide) who rank second hardest for transitional matchups saw LDU drop 117 points, and continue with a 67/33 transitional scoring ratio. It’s also not that LDU’s stoppage scoring has dipped, he’s still scoring at a similar rate even against tough stoppage sides in the Suns, Bombers, Port, the transitional scoring has just jumped up to an average of 54.8 AF points in his last five games, as oppose to the 38.6 AF points from prior. The five round SuperCoach average has also jumped up 116 points compared to the 94.8 points he was averaging prior. Fresh off a bye, with a Harley Reid-less Eagles this week. Out of all the midfielders I’m going to discuss, North definitely have the best run to finish the year. I will just quickly mention that LDU has only gone above 120+ twice this season (round 1 v GWS with 121 points, and round 10 vs ESS with 152 points). If LDU can take advantage of the fixtures that are upcoming and continue to score from transitional play, he could be the pick of the bunch…
Lachie Neale (BRL, $614.4k, (-$2.6k), 117.4 AVG, 83 BE) | Josh Dunkley (BRL, $601k, (-$43k), 112.5 AVG, 133 BE) I decided to lump these two together as analysing the fixture affects them both. The immediate fixture isn’t all that great for Neale, Dogs this week is fine, but then Saints (Windhager) and Port Adelaide are both looming, with a second clash against the Saints to come, along with a clash against Sydney (James Jordon). The soft fixture as well have dried up, no Cats, no North, no Tigers, and their two clashes against GC and Eagles are both at PFS and OS. So the fixture run isn’t exactly amazing, especially for Neale who will be first tagged. As for the Ashcroft return that I’ve seen discussed, Ash is currently slated to return in rounds 16-18. Which actually didn’t seem to effect much, Neale’s scoring and CBA’s stayed consistent with or without Ashcroft, in-fact his dip late in the season was without Ashcroft in the side (but I’ll get to that). Dunkley was averaging well over 120 points with Ashcroft in the midfield mix as well. Now I will speak on something I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere. Neale has historically been a much better scorer in the first half or so of the season. In 2023, Neale struggled to ton up in the last 7 rounds (which majority of those games didn’t have Ashcroft in the side). After two massive scores in games against Richmond and Eagles, Neale averaged 97.4 points in the final seven games of the season. In 2022, Neale averaged 130.4 points up until the bye, and then only 111.8 points post-bye. 2021 saw Neale struggle with injury, but in 2020 the same trend was there. 144.6 points in the first 9 games of the year, and “only” 122.8 points in the final 9 games. The two-time Brownlow Medalist has also turned 31 years old this season, could this trend continue or am I jumping at shadows? Dunkley on the other hand hasn’t quite shown the ceiling of Neale outside of that GC game, but has a much more stable floor. 89, 96, 98, 99 being the only four sub-ton scores. At 27 years old, with Neale being the first tagged, and some tougher fixtures, if I was going here, I’d be personally all over Josh Dunkley, but I can’t remotely say two-time Brownlow Medalist Lachie Neale (who’s 7th for average points in the midfield) is a bad selection.
Tom Green (GWS, $490k, (-$131.5k), 103.4 AVG, 110 BE) I’m going to keep this short, if you don’t have Tommy Green and are in need of a midfielder, disregard everything and grab the man. The value is unreal, should well and truly be over any ankle niggles, and if he’s your M8, you’ve done well.
Errol Gulden (SYD, $535.1k, (-$87k), 104.5 AVG, 96 BE) The #2 winger in the competition according to Champion Data, second to Massimo D’Ambrosio, thanks again Essendon 😉
With Gulden, the stand-out if you look at his scoring is the obvious floor games and lack of that 2023 ceiling, both in SC scores and in disposal numbers. The CBA’s are practically identical to last season, and surprisingly a fair few of the spike-scores came in games where he had low CBA’s in 2023. So why is Errol scoring 6 points below his 2023 average? Well he’s currently averaging -15.1 points from clangers a game. Stats wise, Errol is averaging an additional 0.5 clangers a game this season compared to 2023, while also having dipped -1.7 in tackles, -0.8 disposals, -1.8% kicking efficiency, and -2.4 contested possessions. All might seem minor in comparison to 2023, but it all adds up. Can Gulden replicate 2023 and come home strong in what’s looking like a flag favourite Swans team? I’d be inclined to think so, there’s definitely upside here. And controversially I’d be much more inclined to take a punt on Errol over Neale, but both aren’t quite for me.
Limbo land…
Connor Rozee, 467k, 178 BE*
Tom Liberatore, 616k, 174 BE
Caleb Serong, 629k, 170 BE
Zak Butters, 630k, 153 BE
Adam Treloar, 650k, 143 BE
Jordan Dawson, 608k, 138 BE
Clayton Oliver, 518k, 137 BE
Josh Dunkley, 601k, 133 BE
Rucks
I was going to have a deep dive and have a look at who is the best R2 to compliment Max Gawn, but Pig Mentality from ‘Doctor SuperCoach’ has beaten me to it, having done a great ruck-analysis on the latest podcast (Round 12 Recap). So go check that out if you’re in the hunt for a R2, as it stands I was always looking at grabbing Brodie Grundy this week or next.
Timberrr…
Rowan Marshall, 604k, 191 BE
Forwards
Dylan Moore (HAW, 500.2K, (-$8.4k), 94.8 AVG, 47 BE) Firstly, I think investing in a Hawk premium is looking the go (I personally went full Hawks nuffie with Will Day as a Super-POD over Merrett last week), the fixture’s for the Hawks is just to hard to ignore. As for Dyl Moore, there is continuing upside with the pick. Firstly, the first few rounds Moore was not at full fitness, his scoring, ground-coverage along with the eye-test all lead me to that conclusion. Since Dyl has been injected into the midfield mix, Moore has averaged 26.6% CBA’s, but more importantly it’s pushing up to stoppages that have lead to Moore’s scoring stabilising. The following stats are thanks to @Jaiden_Popowski:
Rounds 1-5 saw Moore average 21.6 fantasy points from stoppages, that’s since increased to 36.8 fantasy points. The transitional scoring was where Moore has been finding his spike scores. And with Saints (2nd easiest) 76 points, Port (17th hardest) 66 points, Brisbane (16th hardest) 73 points, and Crows (15th hardest) 169 points, there is a correlation to difficulty in regards to Moore’s scoring, the venue (UTAS) may have played a part in the Saints game (in which Moore doesn’t have the best history at the ground, hitting 110+ only once in the last two seasons). It’s also a positive sign that Moore dropped such a massive score in what is data-wise a bad matchup for him (the 5 goals definitely didn’t hurt). I’m personally heavily considering Moore, the fixture-run is sensational as noted earlier, and the Hawks have found their footing. Richmond next week, then post-bye, Eagles, Cats, Freo (who are a friendly transitional matchup), along with a second date with the Tigers, and a North matchup all still to come. Hawks also don’t play Port, Swans, Lions again. If you’re in need of a forward, Moore is definitely a shout!
Forward thinking…
Gryan Miers, 468k, 162 BE
Isaac Heeney, 610k, 137 BE
Luke Jackson, 520k, 135 BE
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Great write up!!
Love the stats Abbs, good work on the 177, bring it home strong
Excellent article, Thankyou!
Love the stats Abs, thanks!
Serious question, with the potential strengthening of Richmond’s defence with Blight, can Vlaustin turn his form around?
Was averaging pretty well until all their injuries hit and is going to be roughly $400K after his bye.
I would suggest Mac Andrew if you are desperate for a POD in that price range. There are better selections than both.
Whitfield has had his bye. Of those that have, he looks the best pt scorer over the next three rounds…even with tags. Blakey looks the only other “premo” to have a similar run.
Moore – scoring far too inconsistent I think. Maybe if you have luxury to loop … but not in top 6
I’ve seen this comment so many times this year, and my response is always the same: show me the “consistent” forwards.
You’ve got Heeney and Flanders. That’s it. Luke Jackson is 5th in scoring average for forwards, and he’s only tonned 3 times in 12 games.
The point is, everyone has to take risks in the forwards this year. My best guess is, with backlines and midfields looking pretty much the same for everyone at the moment, whoever picks the right forwards at the right time will win this thing.
Yep Chillo – but the key is consistency of scoring … and Moore’s scores are like a yo-yo with some very low scores … without goals, he doesn’t score.
If you want to look at a player to hold that 6th spot, I think, provided they hold their roles, you seriously need to consider Sexton, Even Fisher and Macrae … all consistently better than Moore …
By all means, if you have the trades, cash etc then Moore may be a choice – but as I said, as a loopable 6th / 7th … not an outright top 6 pick. AND then you have to look at draws for that to be effective …
But each to their own … I just disagree with the write up and advice.
Completely disagree. Moore is high variance, sure, but balances out to a 95~ average and a Top 6 finish in this year’s FWD landscape.
Also: Macrae “consistently better than Moore”? Lmao. Where are you getting this.
Hi community,
Trying to decide my F6 trade this round between Moore or Zac Fisher (saving F5 for Rankine). Would love some feedback if I trust Clarko to stick with the fisher role of HB and jump on him or go with Moore.
TU – Fish
TD – Moore
Cheers!
If you have a F/D rookie at D8, a F/M rookie at M11, a F/R at R3 and Luke Jackson a Zac Fisher at F6 and a scoring body at F7 provides single coverage on all positions. Good for the one week injury and may be worth 80 points or a saved future trade just in flexibility.