Fallen Premiums – Round 3, 2025

Welcome back to the first iteration of Fallen Premiums for the 2025 season. I’ll be mentioning a few of the popular mid-priced / premium options on the value side while we wait for the true Fallen Premiums to appear. Best of luck for 2025 everyone.

 

Defenders

Bailey Dale (WBD, $528.1k, 134 AVG, 29 BE ) I’ve opted to discuss Dale in detail here over Joel Freijah, I do however like the Freijah pick, he’ll hold down a spot in your defence and I can’t see any reason why he can’t make decent cash. I do however prefer to personally just wait for Tom Stewart to drop in price to the 450k mark to hold down that D4-D5 position.
Anyway, I’ll firstly mention the kick-ins. The former All Australian seems to gain close to 30-40 SC points per game from both the kick-in and then the follow up 1-2 possession which those that watch the Dogs will notice. Excluding the sub-game last season, Dale averaged 101.9 points during the season (which alone grants him 3.9 points on his priced average). But if we dig further, Dale had 3 stinkers all at Adelaide Oval, a stadium he doesn’t play a single game at this season, which if we manipulate the stats (I don’t love to do this, but it does paint a clearer photo), Dale averaged 104.5 points in every single other game, even copping a Cincotta tag in R18 which he pushed through and managed 123 points.

For the stat nerds, I will also touch on (in raw fantasy data which eliminates scaling and DE%) how Dale scored his points last season: Stoppages 11.2% | Transition 69% | Kick-ins 19.8%
And for this season thus far it is:
Stoppages 14% | 62.5% | 23.5%

As for the WBD upcoming fixture, the opposition rank for this season in transitional points is:
Carlton (13th) | Freo (12th) | Lions (15th) | Saints (9th) | GWS (17th) | Port (7th) | Suns (2nd) | Essendon (6th) | Cats (5th) | Bye

As you might guess my only gripe with the Dale pick is the immediate fixture which doesn’t offer any soft kills like a Zorko or Whitfield, and he most likely cops a Cottrell tag (which I’m confident he can push through and manage a ton). He did however manage 130+ in both games against Freo last season, and without Bont & Treloar allowing Freijah to play up the ground more, Dale truly is the man in the Doggies defence. The value is tremendous for a player that, barring any unforeseen circumstances will push to be a top 6 defender and I have no qualms with anyone looking to bring Dale in (as I’m also looking at him myself).

Forward thinking:
Luke Ryan, 628k, 192 BE
Tom Stewart, 521k, 184 BE
Harry Sheezel, 636k, 170 BE
Nic Martin, 566k, 153 BE
Jeremy McGovern, 594k, 151 BE

Midfield

Finn Callaghan (GWS, $441.6k, 124 AVG, 0 BE) a popular trade-in this week and for great reason. Both an uptick in CBA’s and inside time in conjunction with natural progression makes Callaghan quite the appealing pick to hold down a spot in our midfield while we fix other areas with the saved cash over the more expensive premiums. Callaghan has an almost 50/50 split between how he scores his points between transitional and stoppage scoring and when you look at the immediate GWS fixture there’s a nice blend of scoring for both avenues. GWS also have the R16 bye which allows Callaghan to hold down your M8 position with hopes of moving him the bench with a completed team or upgrading him to an Uber premium off their bye (like a Bontempelli type). My only caveat with Callaghan comes from the fact I can’t see him being an on-field keeper, and for those with 5 premium midfielders, adding a 6th mid-pricer / premium into your midfield where the rookies are the strongest seems overkill.

Connor Rozee (PTA, $529.4k, 129 AVG, 39 BE) Another value option however in the case of Rozee he has in the past gotten close to pushing 110 points before having an injury hampered season last year. The big note here is that Rozee has lead the Port midfield thus far without Zak Butters who is slated to return in 3-5 weeks. Fixture-wise Rozee has already had the two very appealing fixtures (Pies & Tigers) knocked off, and after another nice fixture against the Dons goes into a rougher stretch with potential tags looming from Windhager (R4) & Jordon (R6). I started Rozee, but if I was looking at a potential trade in this week in the mids, I’d either go cheaper with Callaghan or look at Jordan Dawson for an additional 30k who I have been bullish on all pre-season.

Limbo land…
Lachie Neale, 646k, 189 BE
Isaac Heeney, 599k, 155 BE
Caleb Serong, 623k, 149 BE

Rucks

I’ve got nothing, grab Xerri or TDK if you started Flynn at R2 and need a ruck, or wait for Kieren Briggs to drop in price…

Timberrr…
Kieren Briggs, 516k, 189 BE
Max Gawn, 669k, 180 BE
Tim English 582k, 156 BE
Toby Nankervis, 594k, 153 BE

Forwards

Bailey Smith (GEE, $389.2k, 147 AVG, 0 BE) Lastly we’ll finish off with Baz as I’ve seen a fair few non-owners wonder how to tackle bringing in Smith. Smith is currently listed as a Test for the Saturday night game against the Lions @Gabba. I don’t recommend bringing him in this week against the Lions on their home deck in what the forecast predicts to be heavy showers. Feel like there’s other adjustment and rookie corrections that your trades will be better spent on. Smith similar to Connor Rozee scored a near 50/50 split between stoppage and transition points in his outing against Fremantle in Round 1. As for the Lions they rank 14th for stoppage points and 15th for transition points. Ideally Bazlenka plays, scores an 80-90 points and is prime to be picked for his game next week against the Dees. The plan as it stands it to turn “never again” Jayden Short into Baz next week on my end.

Forward thinking…
Jason Horne-Francis, 537k, 158 BE
Dylan Moore, 502k, 131 BE