Fallen Premiums – Round 6, 2024

Written by Abs on April 17 2024

Heading into the final round of B22 (until the real byes kick-in), upgrade season looming, if not beginning for some, we have a plethora of options to discuss this week.

Before we get there, how did everyone track this past weekend? Surprisingly a good week in the books for myself, sitting at 823 overall. Plenty of time to aggressively mess that up though…

He has to be doing it on purpose…


Nick Daicos (COL, $566.5k, (-$83.5k), 106.8 AVG, 108 BE) fresh off the bye, for the minority that decided to fade Nick, acknowledgment is in order, it worked wonders. With a breakeven of 108, bringing him in for non-owners might be a necessity over these next two weeks. While the form hasn’t exactly been 2023 levels, I personally have 0 doubts this man finishes top 6 in defence.

Hayden Young (Fre, $550.9k, (+$25.8k),  99.4 AVG, 88 BE) A bonus analysis as I personally am looking to bring the man (back….) in this week, and have done a fair bit of research on him I’d like to share. After dropping two stinkers to open the season, Young has got himself a 121.7 three round average… So, what’s changed? The clanger count is the obvious and biggest difference maker. Over the first two rounds, Young averaged -29.5 points from clangers! In 2023, Young averaged only -6.6 points from clangers (-7.33 as a midfielder to finish the season). The worst average of clangers over the past three seasons comes from Tim Kelly in 2022 who went at -16.6 points. Now, not only do these clangers take off points from Young and the like, but factor in the points you’d also gain if he did in-fact nail an effective tackle instead of giving away a free-kick, or as we’ve now seen over the past three week. Instead of putting the ball on his boot and directly turning it over, making smarter decisions. In the 9 game sample size Hayden Young has played as a midfielder over the course of late 2023 to 2024, he has scored 110+ points in 7 of the 9! Freo’s immediate fixture is also very nice. Eagles, Bulldogs, Richmond leaves no room to complain. And then also factor in those harder H2H matchups won’t be focused on Young, they’ll be much more concerned with negating Serong. Anyway, I digress, Tom Stewart will be available for a similar price after this round, and we’ll definitely be covering him on next weeks edition.

Backing it up…
Jayden Short, 398k, 145 BE*
Tom Stewart, 576k, 142 BE


Credit: @Supercoach_Edge

Sam Walsh (CAR, $576.8k, 166 BE, 59 BE)  a lazy 166 points after returning from a back injury that had the former pick 1 miss the first four games of the season. There’s no doubt Walsh is an incredibly tempting pick, proven by the numerous coaches bringing him in this week. But there is question marks and some risk attached to the pick. Last season saw Walsh burn those that put their faith into him, but can 2024 be the year he gets a fair crack at it? I personally am not a fan of going early on him, back issues can flare up at anytime, and if I’m paying 570k+ for a player, I don’t want risk attached to the pick, especially considering we’re back to best 22 next week. Players with interrupted pre-seasons is also a red flag for me, we’ve seen what the likes of Clayton Oliver this season, Lachie Neale in the past etc. have produced without a proper pre-season, and with clear-cut premiums such as Jack Steele, Sam Flanders, Zak Butters, Luke Ryan, all bobbing around, along with the likes of Tom Green, Caleb Serong, Christian Petracca all dropping in price, I’d personally pay up, or be patient and sleep easy as a result. As for the flip side, well, we know how bloody good Walsh is. If he doesn’t experience issues, you’re potentially locking away a top 8 midfielder for sub-600k. SuperCoach is all about playing the game your way so those bullish, don’t hesitate. But if you can, wait a week and see how he fares this weekend v GWS.

Luke Davies-Uniacke (NTH, $528.1k, (-$107k), 93.6 AVG, 125 BE) strap in folks, this is going to be a long one. I personally started this man, and after watching him closely, and taking notes for the first four weeks, I sacked him last week for Jack Steele. Here are my notes on LDU from having watched him and North Melbourne closer then I’d ever want have wanted.
So, what’s changed this season at North? Firstly, Xerri has replaced Goldstein which if anyone has seen Xerri play, knows the man tries to grab that ball out and clear it himself, let alone the drop-off in tap work going from Goldy to Xerri. Then we have the engine room as a whole at North, who offer 0 support to Davies-Uniacke. Which bleeds into my next point, shaking attention. LDU has made 0 improvement when it comes to shaking a tag / attention from opposition players. Again, his teammates also offer him nothing in terms of support here as well. Thirdly, the opposition game-plan. Opposition coaches seem to put all effort into shutting down LDU, with zero regard for Powell, Wardlaw, McKercher, and whoever else runs through the North midfield. Shut-down LDU, shut-down North’s engine room. Fourth, attitude. To say LDU has looked poor, disinterested, and frustrated would be a borderline understatement. Watch any North game over the past few weeks, pay attention to Davies-Uniacke, and you’ll see exactly what I mean. Fifth, defensive work-rate. This was an area I really did expect him to have an uptick in this season. Watching LDU slowly jog around while his man is metres away with the ball has been beyond unwatchable, and I’m sure would have North fans ripping their hair out. This also bleeds into my next point of having zero scoreboard impact for an offensive midfielder. In the Geelong game he did snag a goal when the Cats were caught napping, but he also had an uncontested shot at goal earlier in the game from around 40m out, in which he sprayed it out of bounds on the full. He’s no Petracca, and while I didn’t expect a goal a game from him, I really did think this was an area of improvement heading into the 2024 season. And finally, he plays for North Melbourne. Not only does the scaling severely hurt him, but the fact his teammates aren’t quite up to scratch as touched on earlier really hurts his efficiency and options ahead of the ball. There’s a few more negative aspects I could touch on, but I’ll swing to the positives. The price, and fixtures easing up. North play Hawks this weekend, and while there isn’t a world where I would remotely recommend looking at trading LDU in, for current owners, I really would hold for one more week. Our midfield at Hawthorn is utter rabble, and I do expect a close contest in which Davies-Uniacke will receive favourable scaling. However, I would be looking at offloading him next week for Walsh or best available. LDU won’t be top 8, and I’d dare say from what I’ve seen thus far, that he will be a below par M8. Non-owners, avoid unless a serious turn-around in form, eye-test and system occurs.

Limbo land…
Tom Green, 637k, 181 BE
Darcy Parish, 544k, 176 BE
Marcus Bontempelli, 665k, 164 BE
Clayton Oliver, 502k, 158 BE
Christian Petracca, 624k, 156 BE
Caleb Serong, 632k, 155 BE
Rory Laird, 610k, 151 BE


English is definitely not a good boy for owners…

Tim English (NTH, 648.7k, (-$66.4k), 111.2 AVG, 194 BE) Who saw this score coming? For those with Grundy, Meek, Xerri, get ready to pencil in a trade for a sub-600k Tim English in a couple weeks… The major question on a lot of coaches minds however is, “do we want English or Marshall?” And while that is a tough choice, especially considering Sam Darcy’s impact, I personally think grabbing Tim English who is still managing a 110+ average for what could be close to 560k is unbelievable value. We’ll let English continue to drop in price, and discuss him in-depth in a couple weeks.

Tim English, 649k, 194 BE
Kieren Briggs, 545k, 166 BE
Luke Jackson, 562k, 156 BE


Jack Macrae (WBD, $496.7k, (-$61.7k), 61 AVG, 158 BE) How the mighty have fallen… Firstly, I’m not even considering Jack Macrae until we see the tons return. But, considering the barren forward-line, and the cut-price, Macrae is one I am closely monitoring. If he can nail down a spot, even as a half-forward that pushes up to stoppages, I’ll be fairly confident Macrae can finish top 6. But we’ll always be in the mercy of Luke Beveridge…

Forward thinking…
Jack Macrae, 497k, 158 BE
Harry McKay, 496k, 134 BE

Luke Jackson, 562k, 156 BE


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20 thoughts on “Fallen Premiums – Round 6, 2024”

    1. I’ve done it before Brad, he’s super frustrating. Looks like he’s going well on field, you’ll check his score and it’ll be 75. Might be one of those players who doesn’t get the supercoach respect from Champion Data.


  1. Another great article Abs!

    I definitely agree with Walsh that he looks risky with injuries. Carlton also play 4 of the current 5 tops teams and Collingwood in their next 5 games. Very tough fixture.
    That’s why I’ve gone with Miller this week


  2. Thank you for the LDU analysis, I started him too and couldn’t understand why he was going so badly (the counting stats aren’t too bad but I agree he has look disinterested at times). Think I have to hold and hope for a couple of good games to stem the bleeding, and then upgrade without too much damage to the bank.


    1. He’s already practically bottomed out. Hopefully he has a very nice spike score this week and can actually start to make a bit of cash. I definitely wouldn’t sack him this weekend like I’ve seen a few ask about. Hawthorn Midfield = Points galore.

      His actual stats compared to last season are very similar as you’ve noted, albeit slightly lower efficiency and contested possessions (if my memory isn’t betraying me from when I checked earlier this week).


      1. Agree with all this. I need to write down a rule to not start with $600k plus mids from bad teams!


  3. Cant decide between nic martin (after dumping him in rd 2 😀 ) or sam walsh as my upgrade this week.
    Martin probably doesnt get cheaper and looks likely to be a top defender now but walsh is a proven scorer when fit and has a higher ceiling


    1. Can’t go wrong with either.

      I think it should come down to where you need the extra premium the most next week (Martin will gain his defensive DPP). Otherwise, if you believe Martin is a top 6 defender, just lock him in. I’d be more inclined to think he’s top 6, then Walsh is top 8…


  4. I’m not sure about English being the target many think he is. Darcy is rucking 36% of the time which is clearly effecting Tingles scores…..is this likely to change ?? I am holding Grundy…averaging just over 100 which is $4920 pp compared to Tingles $5834 and even Romo $5237 pp. I just dont see the need to trade Grundy….have Maxy as r1. I’m also $100-$150k better off holding Grundy.


    1. I’ve got Xerri, and I personally want to see everything play-out as well. No rush to move him on.

      If English has one foot out the door, he’s definitely not the play, especially if you look at Marshall’s post-bye fixture run (8/9 games at Marvel).

      If English can however stick with his 110+ average, even with reduced ruck time that most likely hurts his ceiling, I’ll personally be very keen at a significant discount. I think the mids are where I want to spend bulk $ this season.


    2. Geez he’s only had 1 bad game . Prior to that he was averaging 124.5 I wouldn’t be saying Darcy is clearly effecting him but what was clear to me was at the centre bounces English wasn’t engaging in the ruck contests and to a lesser extent at boundary throw – ins. Perhaps protecting himself for some reason? Just my take.


  5. Great write up ABs. Only Naicos and Tingles are of interest for me.
    -Young is no longer of value because for that price I can wait until the byes because he won’t be more expensive. It was a mistake trading him out and I wear it
    – Macrae is fallen out in the pecking order . Same player but no longer the same SC relevant goat. Watching him against the Dons , they weren’t even looking for him when he presented. When is Bevo leaving?

    Daicos he coming next week after I take the cash gen rookies on the bubble.


  6. I see Jackson on the list there – does anyone see him finishing top 6 fwds? I wish I ditched hi last week to be honest. He’ll have some up weeks, but he might have peaked.


  7. I’d also throw in:

    Jeremy Cameron: $458,600, BE 20, AVG 96
    Elliot Yeo: $530,400, BE 14, AVG 115



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