Fallen Premiums – Round 7

Food for thought to fill out the watchlist as upgrade season moves closer.

Defenders

Jordan Clark – 524k, (-44k), 105 AVG, 61 BE

Coming off a Ross Glendinning medal and 146 points, Jordy Clark is ripe for the picking for non owners this week. Even though he dropped a stinker directly after I recommended him a few weeks ago (right when I got him in myself), I reckon what I said then still applies here. He’ll have downs like that and he’ll also have ups like this week. But eventually it should all even out, eventuating in being a top 6 defender once again, a status he’s 3 points shy of occupying already. Fairly safe option for those who don’t have him, although you never know this year.

Luke Ryan – 468.4k, (-49.4k), 92 AVG, 38 BE

Surprises me how often I write about teammates in the same positions, in the same segment. Ryan has had a great last couple of weeks after a weird start to the year where he had fitness concerns and was rumoured to be out of favour for the Dockers. He’s been a mainstay back there for years and is a former premo who has the ability to churn out big scores. However, he has always been a bit of a wildcard SuperCoach wise and there is a fair amount of risk attached to this pick. You know the story by now, he’s value if it works, but buyers beware as he could’ve just feasted on Collingwood and West Coast struggling with their forward connection. I’d probably cough up a bit extra for Clark, or Whitfield who’s still cheap.

Incoming

Tom Stewart – 485.6k, 181 BE

Lachie Ash – 565.3k, 147 BE

Jack Sinclair – 575.7k, 143 BE

Midfielders

Not many standout options in the mids this week, so I’ve just chucked a couple of guys in here to talk about as potential value/popular buys. Watch this space over the next couple of weeks though, as we should have some juicy price drops coming through for some of the big dog mids.

Clayton Oliver – 537.8k, (+37.5k), 109 AVG, 86 BE

He’s made some money this season, but if he really is back to the Clarry of old then this price puts him in the fallen premium category. He has looked refreshed in new colours outside of their disastrous day against the Dogs in Round 1, where he definitely wasn’t alone. He hasn’t gone below 108 since and has a nice safe role in the Giants midfield, while most of the opposition attention goes to Callaghan. After watching him against the Swans I think this is actually a solid pick, but he’s not super cheap and might not have the ceiling of some other midfield guns. This one is up to personal preference I think. Lachie Neale is also still in a similar boat.

Elijah Tsatas – 223.4k, 91 AVG, -49 BE

Elijah’s return has coincided with the Bombers coming from nowhere to turn around their season the last 2 weeks. I was fascinated by their team in the off-season because there just had to be value in their side after all the injuries, but it didn’t seem like anyone could quite get a handle on who it would be (anyone share my pain of trading out Parish 2 weeks ago?). Tsatas has looked good and scored well, but I’ve been a little surprised at how heavily he’s being traded in. The elevated price tag is tricky, he’s also kicked goals and had uncharacteristically great kicking efficiency in these games, something that may not be sustainable when looking at his history. Essendon also have a bunch of natural midfielders, which means he could easily lose minutes to someone like Durham or McGrath if he misses a step. That being said, he only has to average 65-70 to be value and he could have just improved, still being a young player. If you need the stability on field and believe in him then go for it, but just keep in mind you’ll have to use 2 trades to facilitate whatever money he makes. Not a must-have in my opinion.

Incoming 

Marcus Bontempelli – 648.9k, 238 BE

Hugh McCluggage – 542.7k, 185 BE

Andrew Brayshaw – 516.7K, 171 BE

Caleb Serong – 541.1k, 154 BE

Finn Callaghan – 567.6k, 139 BE

Rucks

Jarrod Witts – 461.6k (-106.9k), 89 AVG, 82 BE

Long-time Suns ruck Witts is super cheap right now having lost over 100k this season. This might have been influenced by his early fixture, particularly against Max Gawn where he just got destroyed, scoring 43. Now he seems to have reverted to normal with 112 against the Bombers, with better matchups to come. He’s usually a solid and consistent scorer who has averaged over 105 for 4 straight years. He has had concerns over having some of his ruck minutes taken by the new rules, although those seem to be alleviated for now after Mac Andrew couldn’t have an impact in there last week. He presents value, but he’s still always been that rung or two below the top rucks anyway. I’d only consider if you really need a ruck this week and you can’t get the funds for one of the top liners.

Rowan Marshall – 401.7k (-170.7k), 61 AVG, 82 BE

Marshall was always going to be a victim of the Saint’s recruiting spree SuperCoach wise. He’s dropped a whopping 170k from his starting price with some injury issues thrown in too. His ruck minutes have been creeping up closer to 50/50 though, culminating in 118 last week. De Koning copped a knock and is in “severe doubt” for this week against West Coast, who Marshall lit up for 179 last year. This is a tough one because he is super cheap, has handy DPP and could go large if he’s solo, but TDK should only be sidelined for a week or two. After that they go back to sharing the ruck duties, which would probably stay a 50/50 split in the best case scenario for Marshall, given TDK can’t really play anywhere else and is getting paid half their cap. I’d probably stay away unless he’s named solo this week and you’re desperate for some instant points and cash.

Incoming

Max Gawn – 703.7k, 185 BE

Brodie Grundy – 698.9k, 158 BE

Tristan Xerri – 682.5k, 141 BE

Forwards 

Jason Horne-Francis – 481.6k, (-29.6k), 94 AVG, 81 BE

The Horne-y One has stabilised his scoring a bit since an off start with 119 against the Hawks. He has a nice run of games at home over the next couple of months, albeit against some tough opponents. He should end up a top 6-8 forward and has a pretty defined role, so he’s one we’ll want to get in at some stage. He can be inconsistent though and probably won’t be a standout 110+ guy, so feel free to wait if you’ve already got a strong forward structure. If you don’t though, he’s a solid pick this week. Miller will be ripe next week and Warner should pick up his scoring as the year goes on.

Jeremy Cameron – 432.6k (-50.4k), 90 AVG, 12 BE

Jezza put on a clinic on Friday night with 10 snags and 160 points. Superstar player, but SuperCoach wise we know the story here. He’s a key forward which means he’ll be up and down even though he gets up the ground sometimes and his price will fluctuate wildly as a result. I tend to only get in key forwards in years where I’m fortunate enough to have the trades and cash to set up loopholes with them and another F6 late in the year, where you can get the most of the soft matchups while hopefully hiding the down games. That being said, he’s got a nice next month of teams he’s consistently terrorised in the past (ask any Collingwood supporter), and more games in Geelong always help. Figure out whether the ceiling is worth the risk at this price and act accordingly.

Cam Zurhaar – 315.6k, (-35.4k), 68 AVG, -7 BE

Not the most relevant option but I’ll give a mention to Zurhaar for his great performance off half back on Sunday. I would actually be more tempted by this pick if he wasn’t playing for North, as Clarko has just been launching the magnets around every week this year Bevo style. It’s worked pretty well for them so far, but not so well for our SuperCoach sides (basically just Colby McKercher). If you were super convinced and think its sustainable against better teams you can, but otherwise I’d stay away and just enjoy the Roos playing some good footy for the first time in a while.

Incoming

Christian Petracca – 571.1k, 150 BE

Touk Miller – 513.6k, 132 BE

Josh Treacy – 505.4k, 147 BE

 

That’s all for Round 7, put anyone I might have missed talking about down below and I’ll give some thoughts. Reckon the majority won’t make many changes this week, but there should be some really nice options to target next week.