Why Rookies Matter
Rookies are the key to building a full premium side in AFL SuperCoach.
We all start with a $10,000,000 salary cap, but to get close to full premium you generally need to build your team value to around $14,000,000. That’s roughly $4 million in cash generation, and the majority of that comes from your rookies. A good rookie will typically make $120k–$150k, some will push past $200k, and others won’t get going at all. Over the course of a season, you’ll need to cycle through close to 30 rookies to generate enough cash to fund your upgrades.
Weekly Rookie Review
Each week we will try to help with your rookie decisions by providing buy, hold and sell options to consider. At times this will involve a bit of best judgement based on role, scoring and job security, and we won’t always get every rookie right or include every relevant player. If there are rookies you think should be discussed, feel free to reach out.
The Rookie Cycle
At this point in the season, the focus shifts from picking rookies to managing them properly. Early on it was about finding them. Now it’s about knowing when to buy, hold or sell.
The key metric is break-even. It’s the score a player needs to hold their value. Score above it and they go up in price, score below it and they drop. As a rule, when a rookie’s break-even gets close to or above their average, they’re approaching a sell.
But break-even alone isn’t enough. Job security is just as important. A rookie with a low break-even but poor job security can quickly become a dead spot. A rookie with a higher break-even but a secure role can still be worth holding because they stay in your side and provide cover.
Bubble Rookies
There are also a number of players who hit the two-game bubble a few weeks ago but aren’t included here. Players like Dyson Sharp fall into that category, and at this point it comes down to team selection. If they’re named, they can be considered. If they’re not, they’re not relevant. This review focuses on players who are currently playing, generating cash, or approaching a decision.
Buy, Hold, Sell
BUY
Player Pos Price Avg BE JS Reasoning
Angus Anderson MID $113,500 72 -75 Medium Huge BE, clear standout buy
Flynn Perez DEF $150,700 59 -22 Medium One price rise but holding spot
Callum Coleman-Jones RUC/FWD $158,500 41 -16 Medium JS concern with Xerri returning
Thomas Edwards FWD $159,900 54 -8 Medium Role improving, safer JS now
Samson Ryan RUC $166,700 66 -32 Medium Nankervis out boosts job security
Oscar Steene RUC/FWD $176,900 56 6 Good Strong cash to come after big score
Archer Day-Wicks MID/FWD $187,000 50 -11 Medium 4 games, scoring trending up
Milan Murdock MID $199,900 96 -57 Good Elite cash generation
Elijah Tsatas MID $223,400 92 -49 Medium Expensive but still cash to make
Josh Lindsay DEF $244,000 66 -9 Good Missed peak but cash resetting
RISKY BUY
Player Pos Price Avg BE JS Reasoning
Will Lewis FWD $99,100 30 -1 Low Basement price, Darcy out
Wade Derksen DEF $99,100 47 -34 Low Poor job security
Max Kondogiannis DEF $113,500 50 -32 Low Cheap but risky
Louis Emmett RUC $113,500 47 -25 Low English return risk
Bailey Laurie FWD $119,900 31 10 Low Low scoring, weak JS
Oliver Hannaford MID/FWD $132,000 33 -4 Low Slow burn, is cheap and has DPP
Lachlan Gulbin FWD $132,600 61 -42 Low Selection risk
Mitchell Edwards RUC $223,800 56 -16 Low Strong BE but poor JS
HOLD
Player Pos Price Avg BE JS Reasoning
Talor Byrne MID/FWD $147,400 40 9 Medium Limited upside
Zane Zakostelsky DEF/RUC $153,200 49 1 Low Borderline
Sullivan Robey MID/FWD $167,500 39 22 Low Limited upside
Harry Schoenberg MID $181,900 53 6 Good Probably not a buy now
Cooper Hynes MID $185,500 43 3 Medium Slowing growth
Dan Butler FWD $190,400 43 22 Good Safe role
Liam Lombard FWD $199,600 49 25 Medium Slow burn
Jack Carroll MID/DEF $215,600 51 21 Medium Slowing growth
Michael Sellwood DEF $224,700 57 -9 Medium Spike score has restarted cash
Todd Marshall DEF $236,000 72 17 Good Strong on-field option
Malcolm Rosas FWD $243,900 64 -12 Medium Growth slowing
Mattaes Phillipou MID/FWD $244,700 52 37 Good Eagles matchup this week
Lachie Jaques DEF $250,900 67 49 Good Nearing peak
Jacob Farrow MID $278,700 75 4 Good Ridley injury boosts role
Tom Blamires DEF/MID $281,600 72 28 Good Nearing peak
Brayden Cook MID/FWD $300,800 76 18 Good Big 99 last week sets up cash
SELL
Player Pos Price Avg BE JS Reasoning
Deven Robertson MID $251,000 84 12 Low Long-term injury
Sam Grlj MID $297,100 65 53 Good Peaked
Jagga Smith MID $298,700 78 62 Good Waiting for another big score
Jai Serong MID $313,300 70 64 Good Time to cash out
Final Thoughts
Robertson is the only clear must-trade due to injury. The others have largely done their job. They can be held if needed, but this is where you start freeing up cash for upgrades.
Is Tsatas the goods? He is so expensive, but I said that about Duursma and he has gained $170k
cash is king
he looks like he could make $100k
personally i started him last year, traded him out and then traded him back in. i can’t go there again, maybe.
Ironically he may be exactly what they need right now. Slow footed contested inside ball winner allowing all there speed (Merrett,Parish&co ) to live outside which is the best place for them.
Robertson has that wonderful late game right through to the byes…..great c loop. Its costing about $100k to keep him (after trading in another rookie), but the upshot is saving a trade which is considered to be worth up to $150k. Other than Anderson, not a lot of cheap downgrades on the horizon, so I’m holding Robbo as 30 other green dots atm.
It’s not a bad tactic, as hes a bit short of having made the cash to be definitely worth it, at 130k. So you’re trading at an iffy profit anyway. I did dump him myself though to get steene in, so that I can later either put McAndrew in flex or downgrade into steene.
Could dump phillipou for steene, but not worth a trade till he makes more cash, and he has the ceiling to do it,eventually, maybe.
Ledo
Philly plays The Eagles this week and has a 47 BE..
So we give him this week to do a good job…70s or more…to get that cash generating…versus Eagles then CARLTON both at Marvel…otherwise…
Philly plays the eagles this week- span my wheels right there!! How!!! Which Philly ??-Phillies,Sixers or Flyers?? Which game are they playing? I like the idea of Flyers-eagles on ice myself 🙂
And at $251k, when the byes come, he’s a very easy trade out, hopefully for a premo.
i had plans to hold him, but i do have Wight as my loop. i’m probably going to take the cash out of him this week to get me Whitfield
Many thanks Derek for resurrecting Rookie Review as this segment is so informative and helpful for us older members of the supercoach fraternity. Great job and looking forward to your write up each week.
no problem. i did rush it a bit this week, but will hopefully get it working smoothly from now on.
Don’t want to be “that guy”, but you’ve got the wrong name for Angus Anderson and the wrong average. In fact a few of the average’s are out a little, but Anderson’s is wrong by a lot.
sorry, it was late last night, fixed it up
Thanks Derek
Very helpful info. Greatly appreciate your weekly contributions to the site
thinking about bringing in Perez for either L. Jaques or M. Sellwood but this would use up a boost and leave me with 2 remaining.
Based on the season so far, do we think that Perez has better potential for more cash generation compared to the two Doggies to make it worth it and he can go higher in price? Or too risky to use up a boost on it.
thanks for the write up and summary!!
even though Grlj is on the ‘sell’ list i think i need him on field for at least another week
He’s only gone below his BE once this season, so no reason to rush him out, especially if you don’t have a solid option to trade in his place.
agree, but when it comes to cash-cows and other cow like objects, their main purpose in life id to make cash, and once that stops happening its time to move on. But, if there isn’t any great and obvious options to move onto, they are a hold as long as they don’t lose cash
I thought perez was going to be dropped last week to make way for Scrimshaw, but he held his spot, signs are strong. plus Sicily suspended this week, he should stay in team another week
Appreciate all the advice, but the naming on these lists is woeful.
Aidan Anderson? Jye Serong? Who on earth is Ben Cook?
It’s a consequence of AI generated content.
i dragged all the data from SC into a spreadsheet, but the names only had first initials, then when i put the data into thearticle, AI just guessed some of the first names, quite funny really. i think ive fixed them now.
Say something positive brother.
Thanks for the article and your other work on the site. It’s a weird round where I think all of the sells could easily be held. Personally, I do have to work out which of the four goes as I need some one to make way for Anderson
agree, all the ‘sells’ (except for Dev), could be holds. but if they can be turned into someone better, that is the name of the game.
Yeah I think you have to take a punt on moving someone, just to chase good downgrades/upgrades, because there’s a very real chance they all have another poor week and you have too many to dump next week.
That being said, I wouldn’t necessarily panic and boost into going early on a rookie or buying a risky midpricer to get anyone off the field this week. Even Robertson isn’t losing me money or costing me trades while he’s injured.
Personally I’m prioritising those that have already broken $150k and have earned a trade.
The rest I’ll hold and hope and wait for a spike score. Can’t burn too many trades to cash in 100k gains, especially if you’re downgrading into a weak rookie field in terms of js and future cash gen.
Great article, huge help. Thank you!