Fallen Premiums – Round 9

Tough week for most coaches means lots of changes, here’s this weeks bargain buys.

Defenders

Lachie Whitfield – 567.7k, (-31.5k), 107 AVG, 101 BE

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera – 558k, (-64.3k), 103 AVG, 87 BE

Talked about these 2 a lot this season, but some recent developments have changed their circumstances. Lachie Ash attended 61% of centre bounces on Sunday night for the Giants out of nowhere, basically taking Toby Greene’s share. Whether this will continue moving forward is up in the air, but it only improves the safety of picking Whitfield as his role is still solidified in defence, with potentially a nice boost from not having to share the ball as much. He hasn’t gone under 100 since Round 2 and also has the fantastic Round 13 Bye, so you’ll definitely want to jump on soon. Nas copped attention from an unlikely source in Lachie Cowan, not really a hard tag but it prevented him from going large like we expected. Still a good option with a good fixture, but the attention doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. I’d prioritise Whitfield if you don’t have him.

 

Bailey Dale – 495.8k, (-59k), 91 AVG, 44 BE

Floated Dale as a pick last week, albeit with some question marks. He exploded for 140 against the Dockers and looks to be in a rich vein of form right now. He is the clear distributor in the back half for the Dogs with Budarick and Jaques out of the side, also benefitting from the Dogs lack of regular dominance in the middle. With a BE of 44, this will be the last time for a while that you can pick him up for under $500k. Nothing wrong with him as a smart value option this week.

 

Incoming Price Drops

Luke Parker – 543k, 157 BE

Jordan Clark – 527.1k, 153 BE

Dayne Zorko – 486.9k, 148 BE

Jack Sinclair – 543k, 138 BE

 

Midfielders

Marcus Bontempelli – 584.4k, (-122.4k), 121 AVG, 98 BE

Like everyone else, I have a lot of rules around my SuperCoach side that I take into every season. One of the few unofficial rules that has never failed me over the years is that; If you see the Bont under $600k, you get the Bont.

He had also fallen to 584k in Round 16 last year, I followed my rule and brought him in. His lowest score for the rest of the year was 125 with 5 games of 140+. He’s been playing banged up and has been rumoured to potentially be given a break, so keep an eye out for that. But if he’s named (and given the Dogs’ plight with injuries, I think they’ll have no choice), I’d recommend adopting the rule and not looking back.

 

Hugh McCluggage – 469.5k, (-176.8k), 67 AVG, 98 BE

McCluggage is insanely cheap for a guy who averaged a hair under 120 just last year. He suffered that calf injury in Round 0 and ever since the Lions have been very cautious, slowly ramping him back up with limited time on ground. What a luxury to be able to wrap an All-Australian midfielder in cotton wool and still win games, good luck to the teams trying to deny them of the 3-peat in September. He might not quite reach the lofty heights of last season, but with a 99 in 76% TOG last week and an increasingly sorry Carlton side to feast on at home this week, he still looks a juicy bargain for our sides. I’m bringing him in alongside Bont this week.

 

Finn Callaghan – 499.8k, (105.7k), 99 AVG, 124 BE

If you still want a cheap upgrade but prefer a better recent form line, Callaghan could be the way to go for just $30k more. He had an up and down start to the year, which was then compounded by copping 2 of the best taggers in the game in Jordon and FOS back to back. Scored 110 on Sunday night and has a soft matchup with Essendon this week. He recently put 135 on Richmond, so we know what he can do without opposition attention, and he also has that beautiful Round 13 bye. Just be warned that the threat of a tag will remain, although I’d imagine he’s safe in at least 3 of his next 4. Think he’ll be a great selection in his own right.

 

Incoming Price Drops

Bailey Smith – 655.6k, 191 BE

Isaac Heeney – 678.1k, 176 BE

Zak Butters – 655.9k, 165 BE

Matt Rowell 564.1k, 165 BE

Nick Daicos – 607.8k, 157 BE

Zach Merrett – 596.1k, 156 BE

Luke Davies-Uniacke – 559.9k, 153 BE

Caleb Serong – 476.8k, 147 BE

 

Rucks

Tristan Xerri – 673.7K, (-13.6K), 142 AVG, 90 BE

Not really a Fallen Premo by price, but it might be the last time you can get the big X this season without coughing up $700k. Destroyed Mitch Edwards last week and doesn’t look to be slowing down any time soon. His insane contest and follow up work means he can score regardless of who he’s up against and I’d hedge my bets on him having the highest average in the game the rest of the way, with Big Max now having to share the load with Heath. Get him as soon as you realistically can, I prioritised the double upgrade in Bont and Hugh this week, but he’s number 1 on the target list from now on.

 

Incoming Price Drops

Max Gawn – 630k, 169 BE

Tim English – 555.2k, 167 BE

 

Forwards

Touk Miller – 487.4k, (-98.6k), 98 AVG, 109 BE

One of my many questionable picks personally this year, I thought Touk would be a must-have in the forward line a few weeks ago. He has not quite been that, falling almost 100k since I brought him in after a great first 3 games. He has shown a slight form uptick with 2 tons in his last 3 and is now cheap enough to be an option again. The suns midfield has been out of sorts this year with absences, so the role should remain there rotating between there and half forward, but there’s no telling when his form will turn back around for good. With his BE still at 109, you can afford to wait a week and see if he can put 2 in a row together against the Saints.

 

Izak Rankine – 431.6k, (-107.8k), 76 AVG, 74 BE

Izak seems to have nearly bottomed out in price after his sluggish start to the year, with 2 solid scores in his last 2 weeks having him slowly trending upwards. He’s back to decent centre-bounce attendance numbers (73% last week) and looks much more dangerous around goals. Will always be prone to the odd shocker and can butcher the ball, but he’s super cheap right now compared to what he provided last year. A high risk, high reward selection that honestly depends on your current team structure and funds.

Incoming Price Drops

Harry Sheezel – 592.1k, 175 BE

 

As usual, let me know if you’re targeting anyone not on here, and happy upgrading.