Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

Throughout the season, heck pre-season too, there is always the temptation to “Dance with Mr. Clever”.

You make it sound bad!

Is he a good dancer?

Mr. Clever is not as good a dancer as he and we like to think he is. He looks like a good dancer, right up until you’re actually out on the dance floor, and then, well, having is not always as pleasing as wanting. 

But a Hamster’s gotta dance! I can’t just lie in woodchips all day, I have to free my Funkly Flow! 

I was unaware that Hamsters were into dancing,, much less had funky flows. 

What!!! Were you not on the internet in 1997!

Hampton the Hampster is an internet deity! His name shall live forever! 

Wait, “Hampton the Hampster”….there’s no “P” in Hamster

There will be extra “P” on your keyboard if you diss Hampton! 

He is a bit short on role models, I suggest placating him.

Ok, fine, I’ll look it up…OMG….  https://www.instagram.com/reel/DPevwbsDkrd/ 

…I…I can’t get it out of my head. 

I know, isn’t it great! 

Wow, how clever of us to have watched that. We danced with Mr. Clever and now we are sorry, and stuck with that mistake. 

And that is related to supercoach how?

Di-de-di-da-di-de-do-do

So, I am in no place to criticize people for trying clever things. At times that can be worth a try. End of season long shots, sure, all or nothing might be right. Most people have a punt or three in their starting team. The thing is, we are in the middle of upgrade season. 

Di-ba-di-de-do

I wanna make a rabbit & duck season joke but my brain is melting

Yeah, so at this time of year, we need to keep our upgrading cadence going. Get cash from cows and cow-like-objects, and use it to turn other cows and cow-like-objects into keepers, premium keepers. There are a lot of good options, on every line, that we can bring in. There are going to be very few good downgrade options, and we want every one of those. It can really hurt long term if you end up with a team full of non-playing downgrades, especially over the byes. 

Di-de-de-di-de-de-de-do-do-day-bi-di-do

It is getting very close to Hamster season. 

So, um, I lost my train of thought…Ok, I have a cunning plan. Keep it up and out comes the “bad song” 

Di-de-di-da-di-de-do-do

There is no worse song!

Di-ba-di-de-do

“Tie me kangaroo down, sport…..”

AHHH!!

AHHH!!

 

Are we ready to focus on Supercoach now?

(Meek Squeak) I’ll be good. 

Thank you. 

Bringing in someone you actually think is good but underrated, that’s not being clever. Last season, for example, there was reason to believe that Ned Long might be a good stepping stone, and it turns out he was. 

He was before upgrade season though

Yeah, and I am not sure I’d be up for that punt in upgrade season, but that’s a different question. He was not a “clever” pick. 

A clever pick being?

“Hey I see there is this guy who has never been  good before and probably isn’t good now, and his job security is dodgy, but he just scored a 123 and if he does keep his job and doesn’t go back to scoring like he did the rest of his career, he’ll make a fast $113,000!”

Oh, right, yes. Those guys. 

I’d say that was an extreme case but I’m not sure it is that far off from a few ideas I have seen out on the intertubes. 

Another type of clever is getting someone who is a little, or a lot, dodgy, under the assumption they will be good from here on out.

Doesn’t that describe fallen premiums? 

Well, it can. And some players who started great can fade for reasons, like a role change. I suppose those are less clear, but that does not mean they are not worth thinking about. Paying full price is usually rough, but even very solid players have bad games. If I did not have Nick Daicos or Harry Sheezel, I’d be happy to snap them up in a round or two after their prices drop.  

So a bad week or two is no issue, but an entire bad season, that’s a thing to watch?

Yeah. But not as much as that guy the Hamster described, that’s the guy that disrupts your cash or points, or both, and costs at least one if not two trades. 

So, for at least this and the next few weeks, just do that clear obvious stuff? Because the risk is not worth the reward? 

Yup yup yup. It isn’t like there are no tough choices to make even within those limits! 

 

 

 

A thing when looking at the projections. I use averages. One good or bad score will affect the price a lot. Real playes rarely score about the same each week.

 

Defenders

 

Serong:  Well, darn. His big scores came away from home and he does play at Marvel this week. IF he goes well, great. If not, well, may have to go. Plays at home next week.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	77	119,900
1	54	119,900
2	48	119,900
3		168,900
4	126	168,900
5	75	225,100
6	48	276,100
7	92	313,300
8	39	325,600
9	69.9	318,300
10	69.9	322,187	3,887	3,887
11	69.9	315,276	-6,911	-3,024
12	69.9	323,829	8,553	5,529
13	69.9	330,104	6,276	11,804
14	69.9	334,709	4,605	16,409
15	69.9	338,088	3,379	19,788
16	69.9	340,567	2,479	22,267

 

Jaques:  Did not play

 

Selwood:  Can go anytime, but looks to have one more week, if not likely a big week.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	70	119,900
1	38	119,900
2	61	119,900
3		164,500
4	28	164,500
5	74	177,100
6	69	202,600
7	72	224,700
8	59	260,400
9	58.9	279,700
10	58.9	289,010	9,310	9,310
11	58.9	290,051	1,040	10,351
12	58.9	290,759	708	11,059
13	58.9	291,278	520	11,578
14	58.9	291,659	381	11,959
15	58.9	291,939	280	12,239
16	58.9	292,144	205	12,444

 

Lindsey:   Wow, rule of three. Oddas are his high season price is after this week. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		122,500
1	61	122,500
2		122,500
3	70	122,500
4	46	122,500
5	80	168,400
6	75	210,900
7	132	244,000
8	68	306,500
9	76.0	346,700
10	76.0	376,174	29,474	29,474
11	76.0	373,090	-3,083	26,390
12	76.0	374,358	1,267	27,658
13	76.0	375,288	930	28,588
14	76.0	375,970	682	29,270
15	76.0	376,471	501	29,771
16	76.0	376,838	367	30,138

 

 

Grlj:   Well, crud. A big sell. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		172,000
1	73	172,000
2	43	172,000
3	68	172,000
4	90	208,600
5	59	242,300
6	66	274,600
7	74	297,100
8	34	306,700
9	63.4	302,200
10	63.4	297,357	-4,843	-4,843
11	63.4	289,115	-8,242	-13,085
12	63.4	296,029	6,914	-6,171
13	63.4	301,102	5,073	-1,098
14	63.4	304,824	3,722	2,624
15	63.4	307,556	2,731	5,356
16	63.4	309,560	2,004	7,360

 

Blamirez:   Did not play. 

 

Marshal:  Still has money to mke. Seems to be finding way to put off making it, but it is there.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		147,900
1	90	147,900
2	73	147,900
3		147,900
4		147,900
5	48	147,900
6	76	202,400
7		236000
8	41	236000
9	65.6	246,300
10	65.6	261,293	14,993	14,993
11	65.6	267,705	6,412	21,405
12	65.6	283,265	15,560	36,965
13	65.6	294,682	11,417	48,382
14	65.6	303,059	8,377	56,759
15	65.6	309,205	6,147	62,905
16	65.6	313,716	4,510	67,416

 

Carrol:  Rule of three again. I would not plan on his being blessed by the ton fairy again this season.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	54	119,900
1	59	119,900
2	44	119,900
3	40	159,100
4		180,900
5	76	180,900
6	32	204,100
7	106	215600
8	57	253,300
9	58.5	272,200
10	58.5	297,462	25,262	25,262
11	58.5	295,038	-2,423	22,838
12	58.5	293,922	-1,116	21,722
13	58.5	293,103	-819	20,903
14	58.5	292,502	-601	20,302
15	58.5	292,061	-441	19,861
16	58.5	291,737	-324	19,537

 

Allan:    Did not play

 

Watkins:   Did not play. 

 

Farrow:  So, this is not enough reason t hold him, but he plays the Tigers and then the Eagles just long enough before his Bye to get all the price rises before selling at the byes. Might not be wirth holding for that, but, well. Hmm, is that Mr. Clever talking…?  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		163,000
1		163,000
2		163,000
3	49	163,000
4	90	163,000
5	102	163,000
6	61	226,800
7	68	278,700
8	53	307,200
9	70.5	306,100
10	70.5	309,098	2,998	2,998
11	70.5	312,401	3,303	6,301
12	70.5	322,547	10,145	16,447
13	70.5	329,991	7,444	23,891
14	70.5	335,453	5,462	29,353
15	70.5	339,461	4,008	33,361
16	70.5	342,402	2,941	36,302

 

Bond:   Looks like 007 urned into 017. Blech. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		167,800
1	50	167,800
2		167,800
3	84	167,800
4	34	167,800
5		197,700
6	57	197,700
7	88	222,800
8	17	243,100
9	55.0	250,200
10	55.0	254,183	3,983	3,983
11	55.0	242,544	-11,639	-7,656
12	55.0	250,771	8,227	571
13	55.0	256,808	6,037	6,608
14	55.0	261,237	4,429	11,037
15	55.0	264,488	3,250	14,288
16	55.0	266,872	2,385	16,672

 

 

 

 

Midfielders

 

Jagga:  This guy is killing me. We know he can do better, lots better, but will he? Going to be harder and harder to hold as we try and make upgrades.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	65	119,900
1	113	119,900
2		119,900
3	88	119,900
4	70	206,600
5	53	271,800
6	64	293,700
7	69	298,700
8	70	302,000
9	74.0	311,500
10	74.0	322,547	11,047	11,047
11	74.0	332,859	10,312	21,359
12	74.0	342,191	9,331	30,691
13	74.0	349,038	6,847	37,538
14	74.0	354,062	5,024	42,562
15	74.0	357,748	3,686	46,248
16	74.0	360,453	2,705	48,953

 

Rucks

MacAndrew:  Seems to be hovering around his high price point. Far safer on the field than most rookies, which is a reason to not rush him out. But can go as needed.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119900
1	88	119900
2	81	119900
3	68	119900
4	123	192800
5	83	261200
6	79	313800
7	65	356,900
8	91	363,000
9	84.8	370,500
10	84.8	378,083	7,583	7,583
11	84.8	392,361	14,279	21,861
12	84.8	400,081	7,719	29,581
13	84.8	405,744	5,664	35,244
14	84.8	409,900	4,156	39,400
15	84.8	412,950	3,049	42,450
16	84.8	415,187	2,237	44,687

 

Steen:  Well, um, he is what we should have expected I think?

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119900
1		119900
2		119900
3	83	119900
4	41	119900
5	28	119900
6	72	155,700
7	52	176,900
8	47	197,400
9	53.8	220,600
10	53.8	229,301	8,701	8,701
11	53.8	236,495	7,194	15,895
12	53.8	244,789	8,293	24,189
13	53.8	250,874	6,085	30,274
14	53.8	255,339	4,465	34,739
15	53.8	258,615	3,276	38,015
16	53.8	261,019	2,404	40,419

 

Forwards

 

Phillipou:  I’m curious if he is finally right in the body and going to get time and role and keep scoring 70-80 plus.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	66	168,400
1	27	168,400
2	42	168,400
3	69	185,400
4		198,100
5	69	198,100
6	40	225,600
7	98	244,700
8	80	271,600
9	61.4	295,900
10	61.4	322,739	26,839	26,839
11	61.4	326,271	3,532	30,371
12	61.4	320,644	-5,626	24,744
13	61.4	316,516	-4,128	20,616
14	61.4	313,487	-3,029	17,587
15	61.4	311,264	-2,223	15,364
16	61.4	309,633	-1,631	13,733

 

Lombard:   May have had his spike score last week. I mean, he could ton up any time, but, well, he may just be this all season. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	69	119900
1	55	119900
2	20	119900
3		153,400
4	56	153,400
5	49	170,700
6	45	181,100
7	49	199,600
8	66	210,100
9	51.1	225,000
10	51.1	238,395	13,395	13,395
11	51.1	249,161	10,766	24,161
12	51.1	250,497	1,336	25,497
13	51.1	251,477	980	26,477
14	51.1	252,197	719	27,197
15	51.1	252,724	528	27,724
16	51.1	253,112	387	28,112

 

Sharp:  Looks like he will top out soon. What a good buy for those that got him.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		156,300
1	76	156,300
2	44	156,300
3	71	156,300
4	75	200,200
5	83	231,200
6	65	271,800
7	84	298,500
8	84	322,200
9	72.8	339,600
10	72.8	355,410	15,810	15,810
11	72.8	362,047	6,637	22,447
12	72.8	361,952	-94	22,352
13	72.8	361,883	-69	22,283
14	72.8	361,832	-51	22,232
15	72.8	361,795	-37	22,195
16	72.8	361,768	-27	22,168

 

Cook:   Please, please, please, keep going until your bye. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,700
1	92	158,700
2	62	158,700
3	80	158,700
4	60	220,900
5	63	251,800
6	98	275,400
7	72	300,800
8	94	324,800
9	77.6	355,700
10	77.6	368,492	12,792	12,792
11	77.6	380,360	11,868	24,660
12	77.6	381,843	1,483	26,143
13	77.6	382,931	1,088	27,231
14	77.6	383,729	798	28,029
15	77.6	384,315	586	28,615
16	77.6	384,745	430	29,045

 

Lefau:   Has had three mini spikes. Can assume one more coming, hopefully well timed.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		146,900
1		146,900
2	72	146,900
3	44	146,900
4	33	146,900
5	85	174,000
6	35	200,000
7	74	214,800
8	41	243,900
9	54.9	245,500
10	54.9	255,083	9,583	9,583
11	54.9	253,669	-1,415	8,169
12	54.9	258,745	5,076	13,245
13	54.9	262,470	3,725	16,970
14	54.9	265,203	2,733	19,703
15	54.9	267,208	2,005	21,708
16	54.9	268,679	1,471	23,179

 

Dodgy Advice:  

. I am wondering if I can get away with holding Coleman until his bye. He and players like him, seems a lot safer than the rookies do now and getting rookies of the field is important. 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!