Forward TLAs Group #2

Hi Everybody!

Here is the second  batch of forwards. Standard  re-reminding people, this is just my personal guessing, and not anything derived from math. 

Jack Ziebell

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2009	10	60.4	18
2010	14	62.3	19
2011	21	79	20
2012	16	81.1	21
2013	18	95.2	22	87
2014	17	83.6	23	88
2015	21	86.7	24	89
2016	22	94.5	25	89
2017	19	89.8	26	88
2018	22	84.5	27	88
2019	22	90.9	28	87
		84-92		86

Jack has been pretty consistent over the last many years. He is not too old to have another good year with the right role. He is not at all likely to have a year over 95, which means best case is 5 points more than you pay for. Since he could easily score 85 again and be 5 under his price. He’s more a player to bring in if doing well but had a timely drop in price. 

Jordan De Goey

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2015	16	59	18
2016	20	75.7	19
2017	14	79	20
2018	17	87.8	21	87
2019	16	87.2	22	88
		87-95		90

His games played is very worrying. If he is healthy and gets a lot of midfield time he could be a bargain, although not a huge bargain. Feels like too much would have to go right for him to be a good risk. Still, if he has two great pre season games he will be well, still a big risk, just not as big of a risk. 

Jordan Dawson

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2017	1	32	19
2018	4	60	20
2019	20	86.2	21	86
		86-93		89

I’ve been noticing how the whole TLA thing is way hard to do for players early in their careers. Not a surprise, since the idea was to put players into context, and with minimal data there is not a lot of context. With Dawson, his first five games hardly matter, and his last 20 are very encouraging. His real possible upside is probably more like high 90s, if he gets the right role and game time. That’s way more than I would count on though, but even some natural progression should have him do some better than last season. We do not know his real level since he has played only 25 games, and the “hey he could still be anything” sort of feel is a bit of a plus compared to guys who have played 80ish games at his age and we know more about. The flip side of that is those other guys have a much better known floor. 

Darcy Parish

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2016	20	72.2	18	70
2017	19	76.2	19	75
2018	15	80.3	20	80
2019	20	85.7	21	89
		85-92		88

Just the sort of guy who has played 80ish games I talked about under Dawson! Nice how that worked out.  I feel pretty confident he will at least average what you pay for. The slow steady improvement he has had is the sort of thing that feels like it should happen a lot but doesn’t really in practice. Now he is at the point where it would be easy to stall out and stay more the same. He’s another one to watch and see how he goes in the pre season. His last season was really close to Dawson, yet they feel really different to me. Probably some sort of bais I’m not aware of. I feel like I need to have Parish in mind for my team, once we know more. So, another guy I now like more after having taken the time to look at him. 

Jack Billings

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2014	16	61.1	18
2015	9	84.3	19
2016	17	74.9	20
2017	22	92.7	21	90
2018	21	80.6	22	90
2019	22	93.8	23	90
		88-95		90

I didn’t put these guys in order, I swear. Billings is like Parish a few years down the road. At 24 he has shown us who he is, and we can expect him to be himself. At 24 some sort of breakout is still possible too, if you feel a bit lucky, or something changes in his role somehow. 

Tom Hawkins

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2007	9	51.9	18
2008	10	69.7	19
2009	21	71.5	20
2010	15	78.3	21
2011	15	69.6	22
2012	21	95.1	23	87
2013	20	66.7	24	87
2014	22	87.1	25	87
2015	19	79.7	26	87
2016	21	84.5	27	87
2017	19	86.2	28	87
2018	20	101.8	29	87
2019	22	85.6	30	85
		79-87		83

He had a career year in 2018. He’s very much a mid 80s ish guy most of the time, and getting older now. Much more likely to be in the mid 80s than to jump back to 100, which he only ever managed the once. 

 

Hugh Greenwood

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2017	12	84.6	24	85
2018	22	86	25	86
2019	14	85.3	26	87
		84-94		88

We almost never see guys with such a late start. Unlike most 27 year olds he could actually improve for real. It does seem like 85 is a floor, and his ceiling is unclear. Some sort of increase does look likely. Could add two points to have average, or could add twelve. 

 

Remember the Craggy Island Guarantee, All predictions wrong or triple your money back!

Thanks for reading!

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