Hi Everybody!
Here is the second batch of forwards. Standard re-reminding people, this is just my personal guessing, and not anything derived from math.
Jack Ziebell
Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
2009 | 10 | 60.4 | 18 | |
2010 | 14 | 62.3 | 19 | |
2011 | 21 | 79 | 20 | |
2012 | 16 | 81.1 | 21 | |
2013 | 18 | 95.2 | 22 | 87 |
2014 | 17 | 83.6 | 23 | 88 |
2015 | 21 | 86.7 | 24 | 89 |
2016 | 22 | 94.5 | 25 | 89 |
2017 | 19 | 89.8 | 26 | 88 |
2018 | 22 | 84.5 | 27 | 88 |
2019 | 22 | 90.9 | 28 | 87 |
84-92 | 86 |
Jack has been pretty consistent over the last many years. He is not too old to have another good year with the right role. He is not at all likely to have a year over 95, which means best case is 5 points more than you pay for. Since he could easily score 85 again and be 5 under his price. He’s more a player to bring in if doing well but had a timely drop in price.
Jordan De Goey
Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
2015 | 16 | 59 | 18 | |
2016 | 20 | 75.7 | 19 | |
2017 | 14 | 79 | 20 | |
2018 | 17 | 87.8 | 21 | 87 |
2019 | 16 | 87.2 | 22 | 88 |
87-95 | 90 |
His games played is very worrying. If he is healthy and gets a lot of midfield time he could be a bargain, although not a huge bargain. Feels like too much would have to go right for him to be a good risk. Still, if he has two great pre season games he will be well, still a big risk, just not as big of a risk.
Jordan Dawson
Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
2017 | 1 | 32 | 19 | |
2018 | 4 | 60 | 20 | |
2019 | 20 | 86.2 | 21 | 86 |
86-93 | 89 |
I’ve been noticing how the whole TLA thing is way hard to do for players early in their careers. Not a surprise, since the idea was to put players into context, and with minimal data there is not a lot of context. With Dawson, his first five games hardly matter, and his last 20 are very encouraging. His real possible upside is probably more like high 90s, if he gets the right role and game time. That’s way more than I would count on though, but even some natural progression should have him do some better than last season. We do not know his real level since he has played only 25 games, and the “hey he could still be anything” sort of feel is a bit of a plus compared to guys who have played 80ish games at his age and we know more about. The flip side of that is those other guys have a much better known floor.
Darcy Parish
Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
2016 | 20 | 72.2 | 18 | 70 |
2017 | 19 | 76.2 | 19 | 75 |
2018 | 15 | 80.3 | 20 | 80 |
2019 | 20 | 85.7 | 21 | 89 |
85-92 | 88 |
Just the sort of guy who has played 80ish games I talked about under Dawson! Nice how that worked out. I feel pretty confident he will at least average what you pay for. The slow steady improvement he has had is the sort of thing that feels like it should happen a lot but doesn’t really in practice. Now he is at the point where it would be easy to stall out and stay more the same. He’s another one to watch and see how he goes in the pre season. His last season was really close to Dawson, yet they feel really different to me. Probably some sort of bais I’m not aware of. I feel like I need to have Parish in mind for my team, once we know more. So, another guy I now like more after having taken the time to look at him.
Jack Billings
Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
2014 | 16 | 61.1 | 18 | |
2015 | 9 | 84.3 | 19 | |
2016 | 17 | 74.9 | 20 | |
2017 | 22 | 92.7 | 21 | 90 |
2018 | 21 | 80.6 | 22 | 90 |
2019 | 22 | 93.8 | 23 | 90 |
88-95 | 90 |
I didn’t put these guys in order, I swear. Billings is like Parish a few years down the road. At 24 he has shown us who he is, and we can expect him to be himself. At 24 some sort of breakout is still possible too, if you feel a bit lucky, or something changes in his role somehow.
Tom Hawkins
Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
2007 | 9 | 51.9 | 18 | |
2008 | 10 | 69.7 | 19 | |
2009 | 21 | 71.5 | 20 | |
2010 | 15 | 78.3 | 21 | |
2011 | 15 | 69.6 | 22 | |
2012 | 21 | 95.1 | 23 | 87 |
2013 | 20 | 66.7 | 24 | 87 |
2014 | 22 | 87.1 | 25 | 87 |
2015 | 19 | 79.7 | 26 | 87 |
2016 | 21 | 84.5 | 27 | 87 |
2017 | 19 | 86.2 | 28 | 87 |
2018 | 20 | 101.8 | 29 | 87 |
2019 | 22 | 85.6 | 30 | 85 |
79-87 | 83 |
He had a career year in 2018. He’s very much a mid 80s ish guy most of the time, and getting older now. Much more likely to be in the mid 80s than to jump back to 100, which he only ever managed the once.
Hugh Greenwood
Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
2017 | 12 | 84.6 | 24 | 85 |
2018 | 22 | 86 | 25 | 86 |
2019 | 14 | 85.3 | 26 | 87 |
84-94 | 88 |
We almost never see guys with such a late start. Unlike most 27 year olds he could actually improve for real. It does seem like 85 is a floor, and his ceiling is unclear. Some sort of increase does look likely. Could add two points to have average, or could add twelve.
Remember the Craggy Island Guarantee, All predictions wrong or triple your money back!
Thanks for reading!
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Have to ask: What does TLA stand for?
I’m lost too Kieran!!
http://supercoachtalk.com/luck-skill-and-circumstance-2020/
I’m gonna add that the the headers of future posts!
True Level of Ability
Check out.”Luck, Skill and Circumstance 2020″
Written by Father Dougal Feb 8 2020.
Click “Writers “Top Bar of the site . 😉
Billings is MID only this year, bit of a shame as would be a decent option in the FWD line.
Oh darn, missed that. Thanks! Well, same write up if different position.
I think Billings is likely to play predominantly half-fwd flank and wing, with less inside MID-minutes. We saw more of that in the last six games of last season under Ratts and he’s been playing there predominantly in match-sim. Gresham on the other hand, looks like his MID-minutes will increase in 2020. To what degree I’m not sure yet, but he does have MID/FWD status, so he’s the one I’m watching.
Sadly, I don’t think Billings is SC-relevant this year with MID-only status.
Greenwood is such a tricky one for me because of GC’s SC scoring but I look at a guy who’s averaged 84, 85 & 86 whilst never being in the first choice mid-rotation & averaging only 16.88 disposals a game over his career, going to a club that seems to have him earmarked as a main stay in their midfield with a lot of young players rotating around him & I think how does he not improve & improve quite a bit.
I’d love to hear some talk of Miller & Swallow playing playing roles outside the midfield for that extra bit of confidence that Greenwood is ‘the man” in there.
Greenwood doesn’t have the tank to be a full time mid plus GC have lots of options for that position. I see him resting forward a lot just like he did at Adelaide. Add to that GC are a poor SC scoring team. I just can’t go there.