Last 5 Times:
R23, 2015, Hawthorn 17.11 (113) d Carlton 8.8 (56) at the MCG
R17, 2015, Hawthorn 27.11 (173) d Carlton 4.11 (35) at Etihad Stadium
R13, 2014, Hawthorn 18.10 (118) d Carlton 13.12 (90) at the MCG
R12, 2013, Hawthorn 15.12 (102) d Carlton 13.9 (87) at Etihad Stadium
R14, 2012, Hawthorn 18.12 (120) d Carlton 10.10 (70) at the MCG
Top SC scorers from last game:
Hawthorn: Lewis 128, Mitchell 125, Gunston 121, Roughead 109, Hill 106, Gibson 105, Birchall 100
Carlton: Everett 103, Tutt 102 (and that’s the ONLY time ever you’ll only see those two names together solo in the century list)
INs/OUTs:
HAWTHORN
IN: Will Langford
OUT: Paul Puopolo (Hip)
CARLTON
IN: Andrejs Everitt
OUT: Charlie Curnow (Knee)
SUMMARY
The Hawks close out their Tasmanian schedule for 2016 with the first ever visit from the big-drawing Blues, ensuring a bumper crowd at their Launceston fortress. The Blues will be well schooled on what makes the Hawks tick, and their best chance to spring the upset is for Patrick Cripps and Bryce Gibbs to take charge in the midfield and get the ball moving quickly. Saturday represents a great chance for the well coached and improving Blues to measure themselves against the best team in the competition, and they will be competitive for long periods, but luck and severe favoritism from the men in white will get Hawthorn home here. Two games clear on top of the ladder, there seems no chance the Hawks will jeopardise the perfect launching pad they have built for their flag assault.
The 6 Points
1. When these teams last played Sam Mitchell was the star with 34 disposals, six tackles and three Brownlow votes. Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston kicked four goals each.
2. Hawthorn is ranked fourth for scoring this season, kicking 100 points per game compared to Carlton, which is ranked 17th with only 71 points per game.
3. Hawthorn has dominated Carlton over a long period, winning the last 13 matches, a club record; the Blues haven’t won since Round 6, 2005.
4. The Blues are ranked last for contested possessions after 17 games, averaging only 131.7 per game, but the Hawks are only marginally better, 14th at 135.9 per game.
5. The Hawks will be looking for their 19th consecutive win at York Park, a league record. They haven’t lost there since Round 5, 2012. Carlton will be playing for the first time in Tasmania.
6. Cyril Rioli dropped one place in the AFL Player Rankings on the weekend and is now 11th overall with 545.6 points.
Mottsy’s tip: Hawthorn by 25
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Already conplaining about the umpires and the game hasn’t even started yet, Motts.
I hope we win with a free kick after the siren just to sh*t you.
Late change:
Hawthorn: Cyril out, Blake Hardwick in (first game).
Carlton: No change
Hawthorn 2.5 (17)
leads
Carlton 0.4 (4)
2-3 goal breeze making goal kicking difficult. The Blues had the breeze in the first quarter.
Hawthorn
12 James Frawley 30
29 Will Langford 30
9 Shaun Burgoyne 29
10 Bradley Hill 28
7 Ben McEvoy 27
19 Jack Gunston 27
15 Luke Hodge 26
21 James Sicily 25
22 Luke Breust 25
5 Sam Mitchell 25
18 Jonathon Ceglar 23
6 Josh Gibson 23
8 Taylor Duryea 23
3 Jordan Lewis 22
24 Ben Stratton 19
14 Grant Birchall 17
16 Isaac Smith 17
23 Tim O’Brien 12
11 Brendan Whitecross 9
30 Kaiden Brand 8
13 Jonathan O’Rourke 6
37 Blake Hardwick 5
Carlton
6 Kade Simpson 31
46 Matthew Wright 27
42 Zach Tuohy 27
9 Patrick Cripps 26
4 Bryce Gibbs 25
35 Ed Curnow 22
8 Matthew Kreuzer 21
11 Sam Kerridge 20
32 Nick Graham 17
34 Andrew Phillips 14
15 Sam Docherty 14
12 Blaine Boekhorst 13
20 Lachie Plowman 13
19 Liam Sumner 13
43 Simon White 13
23 Jacob Weitering 12
33 Andrejs Everitt 10
7 Dylan Buckley 10
17 Sam Rowe 8
27 Dennis Armfield 7
41 Levi Casboult 3
2 Jack Silvagni 0
HT
Hawthorn 2.8 (20)
lead
Carlton 1.8 (14)
The Blues looked the better side in Q2 but couldn’t convert easy shots. The Hawks look like they’ve never played at Aurora stadium before.
Hawthorn
3 Jordan Lewis 57
14 Grant Birchall 50
12 James Frawley 46
9 Shaun Burgoyne 46
16 Isaac Smith 45
29 Will Langford 45
10 Bradley Hill 44
19 Jack Gunston 43
5 Sam Mitchell 43
8 Taylor Duryea 43
21 James Sicily 39
22 Luke Breust 38
7 Ben McEvoy 33
18 Jonathon Ceglar 32
24 Ben Stratton 30
6 Josh Gibson 30
15 Luke Hodge 29
11 Brendan Whitecross 27
37 Blake Hardwick 20
30 Kaiden Brand 20
23 Tim O’Brien 16
13 Jonathan O’Rourke 12
Carlton
9 Patrick Cripps 62
35 Ed Curnow 56
15 Sam Docherty 54
46 Matthew Wright 51
42 Zach Tuohy 51
4 Bryce Gibbs 50
6 Kade Simpson 50
8 Matthew Kreuzer 42
32 Nick Graham 42
11 Sam Kerridge 40
7 Dylan Buckley 39
43 Simon White 37
12 Blaine Boekhorst 36
20 Lachie Plowman 36
23 Jacob Weitering 32
34 Andrew Phillips 31
27 Dennis Armfield 30
19 Liam Sumner 24
41 Levi Casboult 18
17 Sam Rowe 18
33 Andrejs Everitt 14
2 Jack Silvagni 11
10 free kicks to 5.
The usual ones… the free kick hawthorn ones are there.
Easy to be on top of the ladder with extra players in white.
In the first quarter, the Hawks had a run of about 3-4 soft frees but since then it’s been pretty even. The Blues defenders are doing a lot of holding and pushing that is not being called while the Hawks are doing a fair bit of holding in the middle that is also not being called.
The umps really do favour Hawthorn…
Q3:
Hawthorn 7.11 (53)
lead
Carlton 5.11 (41)
Hawthorn
3 Jordan Lewis 85
14 Grant Birchall 81
19 Jack Gunston 81
16 Isaac Smith 76
22 Luke Breust 75
9 Shaun Burgoyne 69
21 James Sicily 57
5 Sam Mitchell 57
29 Will Langford 57
8 Taylor Duryea 54
12 James Frawley 52
18 Jonathon Ceglar 52
7 Ben McEvoy 51
10 Bradley Hill 49
15 Luke Hodge 43
11 Brendan Whitecross 39
24 Ben Stratton 38
6 Josh Gibson 38
30 Kaiden Brand 36
37 Blake Hardwick 29
13 Jonathan O’Rourke 24
23 Tim O’Brien 19
Carlton
9 Patrick Cripps 98
4 Bryce Gibbs 86
35 Ed Curnow 78
15 Sam Docherty 78
12 Blaine Boekhorst 72
8 Matthew Kreuzer 72
42 Zach Tuohy 71
6 Kade Simpson 69
46 Matthew Wright 68
11 Sam Kerridge 65
7 Dylan Buckley 63
43 Simon White 60
34 Andrew Phillips 56
20 Lachie Plowman 51
32 Nick Graham 50
23 Jacob Weitering 42
27 Dennis Armfield 40
17 Sam Rowe 35
19 Liam Sumner 31
33 Andrejs Everitt 30
2 Jack Silvagni 27
41 Levi Casboult 19
Cripps finishing off his year really well, going to be hard to ignore next season
FT:
Hawthorn 10.14 (74)
Def
Carlton 7.13 (55)
Hawthorn
3 Jordan Lewis 113
14 Grant Birchall 112
16 Isaac Smith 107
9 Shaun Burgoyne 104
19 Jack Gunston 98
22 Luke Breust 84
7 Ben McEvoy 83
5 Sam Mitchell 82
18 Jonathon Ceglar 81
15 Luke Hodge 74
12 James Frawley 72
29 Will Langford 71
11 Brendan Whitecross 66
21 James Sicily 66
10 Bradley Hill 62
8 Taylor Duryea 62
24 Ben Stratton 59
6 Josh Gibson 53
30 Kaiden Brand 49
13 Jonathan O’Rourke 37
37 Blake Hardwick 31
23 Tim O’Brien 29
Carlton
9 Patrick Cripps 115
15 Sam Docherty 107
42 Zach Tuohy 105
4 Bryce Gibbs 104
35 Ed Curnow 100
8 Matthew Kreuzer 87
46 Matthew Wright 87
12 Blaine Boekhorst 86
6 Kade Simpson 86
43 Simon White 81
11 Sam Kerridge 73
32 Nick Graham 72
7 Dylan Buckley 71
34 Andrew Phillips 64
17 Sam Rowe 62
2 Jack Silvagni 58
23 Jacob Weitering 56
20 Lachie Plowman 56
33 Andrejs Everitt 51
19 Liam Sumner 48
27 Dennis Armfield 46
41 Levi Casboult 35
Looks like a lot of scaling to come.