Round 11 starts with the whole top ten traded outs being rookies at some stage of their evolution. This was to be expected with the byes just one more week away and nobody having a forward line in round 12. Coaches are desperately trying to get a couple of warm bodies on their field in round 12, and that coupled with the rookies averages all hovering around their BE, or injured and of no further use, the excising of these blokes will depend largely on where you need your structure to go.
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MOST TRADED OUT
As all these rookies need to be culled, our reasons will be different, based on whether we need to fill holes in the defence, mid or forward lines. FWIW my thoughts are based both on the stats and in some part, practicality, and you can make your mind up from that, or not! Milan Murdock for me stays this week, with a promise of DDP to the forward line next week to help me get more than 2/8 forwards on field. In terms of profit it makes sense but bear in mind he was thrown into a defensive forward role on Lachie Whitfield last week for that shocker of a score that included frees against and three 50 metre penalties. Without the close attention he was asked to give, that score would have been comfortably above his BE, and I’m not sure it exists against the Pies unless McQualter feels he could do the same on Naicos.
Ideally Tom Blamires goes this week with a BE of 76 and average of 65 and that horrid R12 bye next week. Dropped a stinker in the flogging last week but that doesn’t earn him a Mulligan this week. My biggest problem is I’ve used my previous DPP defenders in recent trades and may have trouble trading where I want, but that’s me, you guys should absolutely get rid of him.
Oscar Steene is a no brainer, out for the season and needs to go soon, if not this week. As his price will not change, you could conceivably leave him if it suits to move others first. Lachie Jaques is another not playing and should be moved on.
As a forward, Brayden Cook has that miserable R12 bye and probably should not survive past this week, but can stay as he is capable of reaching his BE of 74 with a three round average of 84 and a chance of those extra points will make it worth hanging onto him for one more week.
Check the teams for a Todd Marshall naming, otherwise he is another who looks to be on the outer and is not worth hanging onto despite an achievable BE of 32.
Michael Selwood, Sam Cumming and Sam Grlj are pretty much of a muchness depending on structure. If you need a backman to be gone, then Selwood is that man of these three. With a BE of 58 and averaging 59 overall and for the past three rounds. A profit of $174k is good enough and he could become a Bodie Ryan to allow an upgrade elsewhere. As said last week, Grlj should already be gone. Lost another $8k last week and even against Essendon, his BE of 88 looks imposing. Sam Cumming on the other hand, may be worth a punt despite the elevated BE of 63. Essendon leaks points to opposition teams and this may be a step back up the scales to those early 80s for Sam this week. If it works, his juicy R13 bye helps a lot over the next few weeks. A gamble, but I’m doing it because of that reason and the fact that $50k profit is pretty average at this stage.
For me, Mattaes Phillipou has to hang onto the immunity bracelet this week as he is the second of my two forwards left for next week, the other being Sam Flanders. For others, based on the numbers, it makes sense if you can get a viable upgrade with that $164k profit. BE of 61 and average of 63, and a match up against top two side Freo, theoretically says so. Just a pointer that he has scored three 80s plus out of his last four at an average of 79.5 and whilst these were mostly against bottom sides, it shows he is building and you could hang on a bit longer without too much damage.
MOST TRADED IN
Top of this list are two rookies, one on the bubble and one not. We need to give an inch somewhere so I’m not going to can the idea of going early on Jack Ison. The Carlton indigenous teenager led the parade pre game and played on a high as a result, I’d say. That said, he did pass the eye test and Fraser should be pumping games into him now, so it is probably a bit safer than some other non bubble boys. The bubble boy, Bodie Ryan, is popular with 16k coaches, mainly because of lack of choice. Average of 43 and a non flattering BE of -14 doesn’t normally scream pick me, as being a Hawthorn rookie also does not inspire confidence.
The only (imaginary, according to Chris Scott) knock on Bailey Smith is a rumour that he has a small shoulder problem. Other than that, he is a splendid choice if you have the cash. Should increase slightly this week with his BE being 30 points less than his average for the season and playing back down the highway this week. Sydney’s mids will be a test but Baz seems to pass most tests so if you are totally happy with a normally tricky bye in round 16, then pull that trigger.
Can only assume coaches are looking for DPP when trading in Charley Banfield of the Saints as a one game 48 isn’t what usually attracts us to go early. Could also serve as a warm body next week and even 48 points will be useful then. Missed the Saints game last week so cannot put a mark on the eye test.
Brodie Grundy, my gosh, what a week. If you have the cash and can get an uber premo ruck into your side, why not. Some supporting data includes career average over the ton against Geelong, plays a feather bed ruck combo this week and and the narrow confines of the GMHBA should provide a few more ball ins to score from. Didn’t play against the Cats last season but scored 153 in his last game against them in 2024. What’s not to like?
Wayde Derkson is cheap, but unless he’s named, you might as well look elsewhere. Him being a Darwin boy, I’d like to see him get another chance, but the week after the Blue win their first game in eons shouldn’t see many, if any, changes.
Ive been tossing up a couple of cheapies, including Callum Wilkie, but my round 16 bye is already reduced by about a third so sadly, he’s a no. If you can navigate that bye, I reckon he will be good value at $463k averaging 102. The injury game has pushed his BE up to 145 so you could afford to wait a week and he will not be any dearer, probably cheaper. Point to consider is his highest score aagainst Freo is a one off 119 and his career average against them is only 81 over a ten game journey, suggesting they are not really his bunnies. Still, whichever week you nab him will be great buying for a top ten averaging defender.
How annoying that I cannot fit my boy Ranks into the side because of that round 12 bye. Izak Rankine is hitting his straps with full time mid minutes and whilst his season average sits at 88, his last three round average is 116. He liked the Hawks in Adelaide’s win at round 21 last year accumulating 129 points and turning the game. Still represents good value at $56k below his starting price, and with a BE of 39 that value will slowly diminish.
Justin McInerney has an average of 99 and a BE of 84 so may be expected to rise a couple of bucks. Big score last week and has a great role belting through the middle of the SCG feeding forwards. Might be slightly different on the narrower ground down at Kardinia Park, and against the team that plays there so well. Has a career average of only 80 against the Cats and has a tendency to be a little inconsistent, dropping three scores below 80 already. Does have one of the better byes though, so if it fits, do it.
Lat but not least, Archie Roberts. What a pick he has become. Said it last week as well as he has only dropped below 100 once and that was round one. Average of 113 is elite and he dropped 145 against the Hapless Bombers last year and should have no reason not to again. If you have the readies, go for it.
Need to field 2 of the below, please help-
Angry Anderson
Retschko
Murdock
Cumming
N.Cox
No loophole.
Thinking Retschko & Anderson
Retschko and Murdock, Anderson, and Cox have been dropped
I’d field Murdock I reckon. Only scored so low because of his tagging role and subsequent frees against. Doubt they’ll send him to Daicos so he should be back to normal
Anderson has been dropped