The Round 12 Reality Check

What We Thought Would Happen In 2026…And What The Season Is Starting To Reveal

Earlier this year we wrote a detailed article analysing roughly 150 historical SuperCoach seasons to better understand the relationship between team value, overall rank, and the importance of Round 12. The biggest conclusion from the research was surprisingly simple. Team value absolutely matters in SuperCoach, but timing matters even more.

The original research showed that the teams who eventually finished highest overall were not necessarily the teams who finished the season with the biggest final team values. Instead, the elite teams were usually the teams who generated value earlier, upgraded earlier, and therefore accumulated more premium scoring weeks during the critical compounding phase of the season. That compounding window consistently appeared strongest between Rounds 1 and 12, which was why Round 12 repeatedly emerged as the major structural checkpoint across almost every season analysed.

One table from the original research really stood out (Seasons 2023 to 2025):

 

What made this table fascinating was not the final values. By the end of the season, almost everybody eventually became rich anyway. Most serious coaches reached very similar final team values and near full-premium sides. The important difference was WHEN they got there. The teams ranked inside the Top 1500 around Round 12 only held a relatively small value advantage of around $130k–$180k over the teams sitting in the 8k–20k range. That did not sound huge at the time, but structurally it was enormous.

That relatively small value edge represented earlier upgrades, stronger on-field premiums, and more premium scoring weeks during the most important phase of the season. The compounding effect then quietly took over. A coach who upgrades two lines two weeks earlier can suddenly gain an extra 100–150 points without even realising it. Over the course of six or eight weeks, those small structural edges become massive ranking gaps.

That was the central point of the original article. The dollars themselves were never the real story. The timing was.

Heading into 2026, most coaches expected team values to explode. The reasoning made complete sense. Last year the substitute vest absolutely destroyed rookie cash generation. A rookie could score an 82, then suddenly get a 19-point vest game the following week, and their entire price cycle would stall immediately. The vest introduced volatility, interrupted TOG, and constantly damaged rookie cash generation across the competition.

So when the substitute vest disappeared for 2026, the assumption across the SuperCoach community was obvious. No vest should mean easier cash generation. Easier cash generation should mean bigger team values. Bigger team values should mean earlier upgrades and stronger structures.

And honestly, that logic still holds up reasonably well.

But the season has unfolded slightly differently than many of us expected.

The vest removal has absolutely helped rookie scoring stability. We have avoided many of the ugly 10–20 point sub games that ruined rookie economics last season. However, another factor appears to have emerged alongside it, the fifth interchange player.

There are still only 3,300 SuperCoach points available in every AFL game. The pizza itself never became larger. But now there is another player eating slices. The result appears to have been slightly flatter premium scoring, more shared midfield rotations, lower TOG concentration, and fewer players consistently posting the monster 140–160 scores we often saw in previous years. Instead, many premiums now seem to sit more regularly in the 105–120 range.

The effect has not been dramatic, but it has definitely been noticeable.

Instead of everybody suddenly becoming incredibly rich, 2026 has instead become a far more nuanced economy than many coaches expected before Round 1.

As we sit at the completion of Round 10 in 2026, the current figures now look like this:

 

At first glance, these numbers look lower than the historical Round 12 figures from the original research, but there is still two weeks until we can compare Round 12- 2026 with previous seasons. But one of the biggest lessons from the original article was that raw dollar values cannot be compared directly between seasons because every year inflates differently. Some seasons are simply easier to make money than others. Some years produce endless rookie cash cows, massive premium inflation, and easy upgrade cycles. Other years are much tighter economically and punish mistakes far more harshly.

What is fascinating about the current 2026 data after Round 10 is not necessarily the raw values themselves, but how familiar the structural gaps are beginning to look.

Historically, the gap between the Top 1500 teams and the 8k–10k teams around Round 12 was approximately $130k. In 2026, at the completion of Round 10, the current gap between those same groups is already around $82k. Then the gap between the 8k–10k teams and the 15k–20k teams is another $90k. Suddenly the compounding effect starts looking very familiar again. The further teams drift away structurally, the faster the separation begins accelerating. That is exactly what the original article suggested would happen approaching Round 12.

What makes the current 2026 season fascinating is that the rankings probably still contain a significant amount of structural distortion.

There are clearly teams currently sitting very high in rank with surprisingly modest team value and possibly weaker long-term structure underneath. These teams may have nailed captaincy, avoided injuries, hit early PODs, and maximised variance. Early in the season, that absolutely works. But historically, these are often the teams that become vulnerable once rookie scoring dries up and the compounding effect of premium density begins accelerating through the middle of the season.

At the same time, there are almost certainly coaches sitting outside the Top 5k, or even outside the Top 10k, with significantly stronger underlying structure than their current rank suggests. These teams may have missed captaincy loops, started failed premiums, lost early variance, or simply been slightly unlucky. Historically, these are often the teams that surge hardest between Rounds 10 and 16 once the premium scoring advantage begins compounding every single week.

This is why Round 10 can still be deceptive.

The rankings are no longer random, but they are also not fully settled yet. The next two weeks are often where structure begins overpowering variance. Stronger teams begin climbing naturally while weaker structures slowly begin sliding. That does NOT mean rank at Round 10 is irrelevant. Far from it. The original research strongly suggested that the closer coaches approached Round 12 with strong structure and competitive rank, the more likely they were to finish elite overall.

Looking back at my own recent seasons after Round 10 probably reflects this perfectly:

 

What makes these numbers fascinating is how differently seasons can unfold from a very similar structural position.

The 2023 season is probably the perfect example of why coaches should not panic too early. After Round 10, that team was only ranked 9,856 with a relatively modest value of $12.935m. Yet by the end of the season it finished ranked 689 overall with a final value exceeding $14.15m.

On the other hand, the 2024 season shows the opposite can also happen. Despite having a stronger Round 10 value than 2023 and sitting at a much better rank of 6,938, the season still drifted backwards overall and eventually finished outside the Top 10k.

Then there is 2025, where the structure after Round 10 was clearly elite. A value of $13.176m and a rank of 161 after Round 10 translated into a final rank of 1,161 despite the inevitable ups and downs that every season throws at coaches.

What is particularly interesting about the current 2026 season is that my current team value of $13.008m is actually ABOVE the current average value of the Top 1500 teams, which sits at approximately $12.985m after Round 10. Yet my rank is only 4,234. That probably tells its own story about the current season.

Some seasons are simply easier structurally than others. Some years reward aggressive optimisation. Some years punish every mistake. Interestingly, the current 2026 environment actually looks much closer structurally to the 2023 season than the stronger inflation conditions of 2025. That probably suggests 2026 is shaping up as a tighter, more compressed economy than many initially expected.

The good news is that the season is NOT fully sorted yet. There are still overachieving teams likely to slide, underachieving teams likely to surge, high-value teams that may collapse from lack of trades, and lower-value teams still capable of correcting structure.

The next two to three weeks are probably where the real story of the 2026 season will begin unfolding.

Historically, this is the phase where structure begins overpowering variance, premium density starts compounding harder, and the rankings gradually begin reflecting the true quality of teams underneath. If you are currently sitting high in rank with strong team value and healthy trades remaining, then history suggests you are probably in a very strong position for the run home.

That does NOT guarantee a great final rank. Injuries, captaincy, POD timing and simple bad luck can still completely change a season. But historically, coaches who reach Round 12 with strong structure, competitive rank and flexibility remaining usually give themselves an excellent chance to finish strongly overall.

At the same time, if you are currently sitting a little further down the rankings, the season is absolutely NOT over.

Round 10 is still early enough that strong structures can surge quickly, weaker structures can collapse quickly, and significant ranking movement can still happen before the competition fully converges. There are almost certainly coaches right now sitting outside the Top 5k, or even outside the Top 10k, with better underlying teams than some coaches ranked far above them. The next fortnight will probably expose many of those differences.

That is why the next few weeks are so important.

By the time we reach Round 12, the rankings will likely begin looking far more like the true structural order of the competition. The overachievers will either hold on or begin sliding. The underperforming high-value teams will either launch or waste their structural advantage. And coaches will finally get a much clearer idea of where they genuinely sit for the run home.

The original article finished with one simple idea:

“You don’t win SuperCoach in Round 24. You earn the right to win it by Round 12.”

At the completion of Round 10 in 2026, it still feels like the next two or three weeks may determine exactly who has earned that right.

 

thanks fellas