Pizza Theory – Round 1 Reality Check

Pizza Theory – Round 1 Reality Check

Before the season started we introduced what we called Pizza Theory.

The concept was simple.

Every AFL match produces exactly 3,300 SuperCoach points. That pizza never changes size. It doesn’t matter whether the game is a brutal defensive scrap played in sideways rain, or a sunny afternoon where both teams forget how defending works. The pizza remains exactly the same.

What changed in 2026 was how many players are eating it.

In previous seasons teams named 23 players, but because of the substitute rule only 44 players really shared the match. Eventually someone came off and someone else replaced them.

This year the AFL changed the equation. Five interchange players. No substitute.

All 23 players now rotate through the game.

Which means 46 players are now sharing the same pizza.

The theory suggested that scoring wouldn’t simply drop evenly across the league. Instead, the real SuperCoach edge would come from understanding how coaches distribute the pizza.

Some teams would feed their stars.
Some teams would spread the slices evenly.
Some teams would accidentally starve the rookies.

Round 1 has now given us our first look at how this might actually play out.

And interestingly, several of the predicted scenarios appeared immediately.

Just not always where we expected.

The Big Round 1 Surprise

The most surprising thing from Round 1 was actually what didn’t happen. The stars didn’t lose minutes.

Across the competition, most elite players were still playing extremely strong time on ground numbers.

Nick Daicos played 89% TOG.

Caleb Serong 85%.

Connor Rozee 84%.

Max Gawn 91%

Zak Butters 83%.

Cameron 82%

St Kilda’s key distributors Sinclair (84%), Wanganeen-Milera (87%) and Flanders (83%) were also heavily involved.

North Melbourne’s core midfield pair Davies-Uniacke (85%) and Sheezel (80%) also maintained strong minutes.

Even Brisbane’s midfield structure looked very familiar with Neale (84%) and both Ashcrofts and Dunkley around 80%.

In other words, the pizza has not yet been taken from the stars.

Instead, the missing slices appear to be coming from:
• rookies
• role players
• shared rucks
• returning players

Which means Pizza Theory may still be correct, just in a slightly different way than expected.

Scenario 1 – The Double Ruck Teams

The easiest prediction to confirm was the double ruck problem.

This is the classic pizza disaster.

One ruck used to eat 85–90% of the pizza while a forward occasionally stole a slice at stoppages. Now two rucks sit down and suddenly the plate is empty before anyone else even gets a napkin.

Hawthorn provided the clearest example in Round 1.

Meek played 58% TOG while Reeves played 53%, which is almost a perfect split of the role.

Carlton also showed signs of this structure with Pittonet (74%) and O’Keeffe (66%) both heavily involved.

Brisbane appeared to share the ruck duties between Fort (73%) and Draper (68%), although in this case the explanation was simple, Draper was returning from a long-term injury and his minutes were being managed.

Fremantle offered another variation, with Darcy playing 45% and Jackson 78%, suggesting Jackson will carry the majority of the ruck work while still sharing the role more than in previous seasons.

From a SuperCoach perspective, this scenario plays out exactly as expected.

Two rucks means two plates.

Which usually means half the pizza.

Does anyone want to trade Meek in a draft league from me?

Scenario 2 – Managing Players Instead of Everyone

Another prediction from the original article was that coaches might use the extra bench to manage specific players rather than reduce everyone’s minutes evenly.

Round 1 provided plenty of evidence of this approach.

Geelong appeared to carefully manage several players. Patrick Dangerfield played just 55% time on ground, while Bruhn returning from injury played around 63%. Young ruckman Edwards also played roughly 63%, supported by the ever-versatile Blicavs.

Collingwood used the extra rotations to limit the exposure of younger players. Several developing players played under 70% game time while the stars remained heavily involved.

Port Adelaide did something similar with Watkins (around 65%) and Durdin (around 55%) receiving controlled minutes.

Gold Coast also showed signs of carefully managing younger players such as Uwland (66%), Farrar (60%) and Davis (62%).

North Melbourne had a similar situation with McKercher returning from injury, which explains his lower game time and should increase as the season progresses.

The pattern here is very clear. The pizza hasn’t been taken away from everyone. It has mostly been taken from players who were never sitting closest to the pizza box in the first place.

Scenario 3 – The Pretend Sub

One of the more interesting predictions from Pizza Theory was the idea that some teams would recreate last year’s substitute without technically having one.

Instead of one player being removed from the match, two players would effectively share the same role.

One player rotates off. Another replaces him. Then they swap again later.

Round 1 showed signs of this happening.

Sydney appeared to rotate Sheldrick (68%) and Papley (71%) through similar roles.

The Bulldogs showed something similar with Baker (68%) and Bramble (69%).

GWS also rotated players such as Brown (62%) and Gruzewski (66%) through shared roles.

In these situations the lost minutes are concentrated in a single role rather than spread across the entire team.

For SuperCoach coaches this is actually good news.

One player sacrifices his slice of the pizza so the rest of the team keeps eating.

Scenario 4 – The Midfield Committee

Another predicted scenario was the midfield committee.

Instead of one or two dominant midfielders playing huge minutes, several players rotate through the centre square and share the workload.

Round 1 showed signs of this structure at several clubs.

Hawthorn rotated a number of midfielders through the role with Nash (79%), Ward (75%), Mackenzie (74%) and Newcombe (73%) all sharing minutes.

West Coast showed something similar, with no midfielder exceeding roughly 78% TOG, suggesting the Eagles are rotating a larger midfield group.

Melbourne also spread their midfield workload, with Pickett playing 82% but the next highest midfielder closer to 72%.

Interestingly, this pattern appears most often at teams with developing midfield groups or without a clear elite midfield core. From a football perspective this builds depth. From a SuperCoach perspective it spreads the pizza across too many plates.

Why the Stars Are Still Eating

One of the biggest lessons from Round 1 is that AFL coaches behave exactly how you would expect.

If you are a coach and you have an elite midfielder, you don’t reduce his minutes to help the rookie.

You reduce the rookie’s minutes to protect the star.

Which explains why players like Daicos, Serong, Rozee, Butters and Sinclair are still playing enormous game time.

The pizza is still being delivered directly to the players who are best at using it.

Club-by-Club Pizza Breakdown

Hawthorn – The Shared Table
Hawthorn were one of the clearest examples of pizza sharing in Round 1.

The most obvious example was the ruck split, where Meek played 58% TOG and Reeves 53%. When two genuine rucks split the role this evenly, the traditional ruck scoring opportunity immediately gets divided.

The midfield structure also suggests Hawthorn may be running a committee approach this season.

Instead of one dominant midfielder playing huge minutes, several players were clustered in the mid-70% range:

This kind of structure means possessions, clearances and tackles are spread across multiple players.

From a SuperCoach perspective, that means nobody really gets to eat the entire pizza.

Carlton – Controlled Ruck Sharing
Carlton also showed signs of sharing the ruck duties.

Pittonet played 74% TOG while O’Keeffe played 66%, suggesting the Blues are comfortable splitting the role between two players rather than relying on one dominant ruck.

That division naturally reduces the ceiling for both players, because the hitouts and stoppage opportunities are shared.

However, outside the ruck division the midfield structure looked relatively stable.

In other words, Carlton appear to be sharing the pizza in one position rather than across the whole team.

Brisbane – Context Matters
Brisbane’s rotation numbers require some context.

The Lions also appeared to share the ruck role, but Draper played only 68% because he was returning from a long-term injury, so the coaching staff were clearly managing his workload.

There were also structural factors influencing the rotations.

Gallop and Allen shared the key forward role, while Annable was playing his first AFL game, which naturally affects time-on-ground patterns.

In the midfield, however, Brisbane looked very familiar. Lachie Neale played 84% TOG, while both Ashcrofts and Dunkley both played around 80%.

Those numbers are extremely consistent with last season.

The biggest factor for Brisbane may actually be who wasn’t playing. With Hugh McCluggage currently injured and expected back in a few weeks, the midfield rotation may change when the full group returns.

Fremantle – Star Midfield Remains
Fremantle ran an uneven ruck split with Darcy playing 45% TOG while Jackson played 78%, suggesting Jackson is currently carrying the majority of the ruck workload.

However, the Dockers’ midfield structure still revolves around their best player.

Caleb Serong played 85% time on ground, which is exactly the type of premium involvement that allows elite midfielders to accumulate possessions and SuperCoach scoring actions. Serong scored 150 pts, thankyou.

This is a perfect example of Pizza Theory working selectively.

Some slices are being shared, but the star still gets the biggest piece.

Collingwood – Stars First, Kids Later
Collingwood appear to be using the extra interchange player primarily to manage younger players.

Several developing players saw reduced minutes. Meanwhile the club’s stars were still heavily involved.

Nick Daicos played 89% TOG, essentially a full game in modern AFL terms, while Josh Daicos played 83%.

If the pizza is sitting on the table, the Daicos brothers are clearly sitting closest to the box.

Geelong – Veteran Management
Geelong’s rotations showed clear signs of targeted player management.

Veteran midfielder Patrick Dangerfield played only 55%, suggesting the club is carefully managing his workload across the season.

Tanner Bruhn played 63% as he returned from injury, while young ruck Edwards played 63% with Blicavs supporting at 76%.

Despite these adjustments, Geelong’s main ball users were still heavily involved.

Holmes, Smith and Miers all played above 83%, which shows the club still relies heavily on its core players.

North Melbourne – Core Midfield Still Driving Play
North Melbourne also had a clear explanation for some of their lower minutes.

Colby McKercher was returning from injury, which limited his game time and should increase over the coming weeks.

However, the midfield structure itself was very clear. Luke Davies-Uniacke played 85% TOG and Harry Sheezel 80%, showing that the Kangaroos still rely heavily on those two players to drive their ball movement.

The pizza may move around slightly, but it still ends up on the same plates most of the time.

St Kilda – Premium Distributors
St Kilda’s rotations suggest the club is comfortable leaving its best ball users on the field for long periods.

Sinclair played 84%, Wanganeen-Milera 87% and Flanders 83%.

Those are extremely healthy numbers for three players in the same team.

Old man Jack Macrae was only on the field 56% of the time and Phillipou was injured and only had 43%, so that may have affected the shared TOG.

Port Adelaide – Youth Managed, Stars Fed
Port Adelaide appear to be using the extra interchange player to manage younger players. Watkins played 65% TOG and Durdin only 55%, suggesting the club is carefully controlling their exposure.

Meanwhile the midfield stars remained heavily involved. Rozee played 84% and Butters 83%.

The pizza is still arriving exactly where you would expect it.

Sydney – Injuries Altering the Rotation
Sydney’s rotation pattern in Round 1 may not reflect their true structure.

Injuries to Errol Gulden and Isaac Heeney changed the midfield and forward rotations, which likely altered time-on-ground patterns.

Once those players return, the pizza distribution will likely shift again. However, there was a clear role-share between Papley and Sheldrick (even more noticeable in Round 0) that should leave plenty of Pizza for the guns.

Western Bulldogs – Role Rotation
The Bulldogs appeared to rotate specific roles rather than reduce minutes across the whole team.

Players such as Baker (68%) and Bramble (69%) shared minutes in certain positions.

However Marcus Bontempelli still played 83% TOG, meaning the star midfielder remained heavily involved.

GWS – Role-Based Sharing
The Giants also showed signs of targeted rotation.

Players such as Brown (62%) and Gruzewski (66%) shared minutes in specific roles, which spreads the workload across role players. Briggs (51%) and Riccardi (58%) clearly had a shares ruck role.

However, the team’s key contributors were still heavily involved.

West Coast – The Midfield Committee
West Coast may be one of the clearest examples of a midfield committee.

No midfielder exceeded roughly 78% TOG, suggesting several players are rotating through the centre. From a development perspective this helps build midfield depth.

From a SuperCoach perspective it spreads the pizza across too many players.

Melbourne – Similar Rotation Pattern
Melbourne also spread their midfield workload across several players.

Pickett played 82% TOG, but the next highest midfielder was around 72%, indicating a larger group rotating through the centre.

This type of structure rarely produces one dominant SuperCoach scorer, well except for Max who took the lions share of the ruck duties. What a star.

Gold Coast – Young Player Protection
Gold Coast appear to be using the extra interchange player to protect younger players.

Uwland (66%), Farrar (60%) and Davis (62%) all played reduced minutes, suggesting the club is carefully managing developing talent.

The Early Pizza Verdict

After just one round, Pizza Theory appears to be partly correct.

More players are sharing the pizza.

But the slices are not being distributed evenly.

So far the reduced minutes have mostly affected:
• rookies
• role players
• returning players
• shared rucks

Players coming back from injury, the veterens – the Mid-pricers.

The youg kids – the Rookies

The stars – are still eating very well.

The most important thing to remember is that this is only Round 1.

Players are fresh, rotations are still experimental and coaches are still learning how to use the extra bench player. The Pizza is still hot, fresh from the oven.

As the season progresses fatigue will build, injuries will occur and workloads will need managing.

That is when the extra player may begin to absorb more meaningful minutes from the stars.

Pizza Theory may still play out across the season. We just haven’t seen the full effect yet.

The trick this season is identifying which table your players are sitting at.

Because in SuperCoach, just like at a pizza night… the person sitting closest to the box usually eats the most.