G’day team, I’m stepping in for Jimmy Dee this afternoon. I was going to do a poll on Crippa but with the club coming out overnight and saying they only expected him to miss a week, you’ve got to take that on face value and hold him. So here’s what I’ve come up with instead…
I want to bring Nathan O’Driscoll into The Maulers@SCT this week. The three options I’ve got to trade for him are Jake Bowey, Mitch Hinge and Patty McCartin.
The breakevens (and likelihood of making them) for those 3 players respectively are: 82 (49%), 29 (89%), and 27 (100%).
Originally I’d slated Hinge to go as I’d heard he was going to miss a week (I’m not sure where that’s currently at) but when looking at Bowey’s BE (brought to my attention by Abs in his Fallen Premiums post – thanks mate), the better decision seems to be to kick him out. $200k collect. Thank you very much!
Going through the process of selecting who gets the Khyber Pass got me to thinking about trading rookies who hadn’t yet reached their cash generation ceiling. We know they haven’t, of course, because they have a breakeven which they have a high probability of making.
So today’s questions is: at this stage of the season, are there circumstances in which you should trade rookies who haven’t yet reached their ceiling or is cash generation more important right now?
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If there’s a situation where a premium you’ve been eyeing off is ripe (say a 30 BE), and you’re a few thousand short, that’s where I’d look. Otherwise hold off until they’re about to peak, this also gives a chance for them to score another big score and create a further 3 weeks of cash generation
Nicely summarised, Pete.
Great topic
Even better answer
Although I prefer not to, I’d do it for the greater good. To me the greater good is not necessarily trading Hinge to NO’D because being like for like, it doesn’t change much and I wouldn’t consider it the greater good.
However, with the lack of defensive cows, I’d consider swapping out a Dylan Stephens type for NO’D to give me more defensive flexibility as I can swing any number into the mids (Rachele, Brodie Cogs etc) if it gets a bit tight there.
That way with nine playing forwards (inc Dixon at R3) I would have total flexibility over all the lines come upgrade time. The flip side of this is if Stephens picked up a guernsey this week and Hinge looks like missing a couple, I’d probably keep Stephens and trade Hinge for NO’D, FWIW.
Ward can go to NOD big shame started him over JHF 🙁
I’ve got 3 Hawthorne potatoes, Ward, McDonald and maguiness. I think they’ve all hit the wall for the time being, so I think 2 correction trades are coming.
I had faith that Ward would come good, plenty of CBA’s, good stats, but I’ve run out of patience. Nod and maybe Erasmus to come in. Waiting on teams…
Normally if I can grab a premo, then I’ll do it. This week I’m likely to go Xerri to English. Yes Xerri will make more cash – maybe as much as 100k – but English will also continue to rise and the extra points are more important to me.
The interesting ones are Stephens, Ward, McDonald, Owens et al. Everyone remembers Highmore last year, and Bergman was another, that people regretted sideways trading to a playing or seemingly better rookie. Sometimes holding these players is better than wasting a trade.
Believe that you have to go early on rookies nearing apex who maybe with a break even that is more likely to be achieved and with a great game even extend their cash generation by an additional two weeks. Just got to remember that generally they are one game up and one down down in scoring week on week.
The same can be said with elite premiums. Better going a week early on a fallen premium with a breakeven in the 140+ and high ceiling because he is more than likely to punch out a score in excess of 120.
Ok, can anyone name confidentiality the three outs at Freo for Tucker, Serong and Pearce???
Neil Erasmus should be washing the selectors cars and Nathan O’Driscoll maybe polishing them?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Ha Ha CT, love it. Hopefully you’ve started a trend.
Logue, Walker, with Erasmus replacing Banfield as sub should all of Tucker,Serong and Pearce come back in.
The Bombers forward line is small apart from Wright.
Seems a good logical assessment 1DER. You’ve almost fully convinced me.
Interesting point about the small Bombers forward line. Gus Brayshaw took 20 marks floating around the back line against the Bombers two weeks ago. Maybe some hope for Ryan owners.
Yep, couple of days ago I had Cripps out, and the 2 freo boys in.
Then I saw Freos likely ins and reversed all trades.
Thinking of holding Cripps if it’s just a week and hoping one of freo rookies gets a game- and I’ll jump on them- probably O’Driscoll at this stage my thinking
On trading rooks I’d say yes if your forced to play them and there is another rook outperforming. Otherwise hold on your bench for cash generation.