Baz has a couple of questions for you:
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Some very interesting questions there… let us know below if you have any further thoughts on this.
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Polls: Best-18 Considerations
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As for question two it comes down to simple arithmetic.
Rookie averages 60.
Shuey/Hurn average 100 and 90 respectively from here.
You gain 30-40 points on field.
However, Hurn to Haynes only nets me 10-15 points and costs 100k which is 20k more than a 280k rookie would cost to turn into Hurn. If you have the trades left then eventually move on these 3/4 premos for the big guns, but in a limited cash gen season this is unlikely and unrealistic for most of us.
Maybe in a normal round, but with three ‘Best 18’ rounds coming up, its the top end that matters, not your 16-18th best player, who are likely to be within ~10 points of each other.
Shuey (100) and Hurn (90) is pretty optimistic, when neither have averaged that to date, and have been playing in Perth for seven weeks. On averages alone, Haynes is 20 points better than Hurn, and with a move away from Perth, that’s likely to increase. If Hurn goes sub-75 (which he has in almost half his games this year), his score is likely to not even count, and would actually be pushing an inferior score into your Top 18.
There’s value around – like Martin – but Shuey and Hurn are cheap for a reason.
Well said, Matt. I think Roo was using Hurn as an example, not so much literally, but both perspectives are valid depending on the scenario.
You need to account for B18, league vs overall, your opponents teams, remaining trades, and $:point upgrade value. There won’t be a “one size fits all” approach to the above, it will vary broadly.
I agree with Hurn but Shuey’s average includes an injury effected 33 which happened very early in the Sydney game, if you take that out he is averaging 103. Nothing special but I think he’s a solid option for $480 k if you want a consistent 80-100 each week, fingers crossed his body can hold up for the rest of the year.
Good analysis TrooRoo
Agree
It’s worth noting it’s not about what premiums have averaged until now, all that matters is what they average for the last 5 rounds.
Luke McDonald, Ed Curnow, Zac Merrett, Tom Rockliff, Travis Boak, Sam Walsh and Jed Anderson have all posted uber-premium like numbers past 5 rounds.
TDTR: The solution is underpriced premiums, the concern is picking the best ones.
Further to the comments above, i’m fortunate to have banked some cash currently and have the potential to do 2 upgrades this round.
Most likely i’ll be trading these players out – Serong, Aarts, Mcpherson
TU – J. Kelly, Brayshaw (freo), Mosquito.
TD – J. Martin, Gaff and can hold Mcpherson or downgrade for larger bank.
Had 11 trades going into this round and after 2 upgrades am only looking at upgrading D. Smith to Dusty after his bye, and bringing in a ruckman for Draper post round 15.
This is a great topic. I have been using an excel spreadsheet ever since the end of season bye structure was announced. My strong start to the year (despite r3 !!) allowed me a bit of luxury in going for a rookie, instead of a mid pricer for an up/down trade. The spreadsheet shows the likely pts scoring, albeit based on averages, and that of my probable oppts, over the bye rounds.
I have been scoring in line with main oppts for many weeks now, but look to be 150+ ahead of them over bye rounds. Of course we all can trade, but I have 9 left, Macrae will come in this week, and I may even trade out Neale if the numbers get tight.
For me, it divides coaches in two categories:
-League players: You don’t worry about the dreaded R15 bye and plan for the run home, making sure your team is closest to the front runner and get the smoking POD they dont have.
-Overall players: R15 matters. You need 18 decent players or close to during all the byes, making sure you have all the big scorers or equivalent in the run home.
For both you need cash and trades, if you dont, good luck
I just posted this in trade talk but it is relevant here.
I am playing for leagues. 9 trades left. I am fielding 2 rookies (1 Def & 1 Mid)
What strengthens best 18?
TU gives me 21 keepers to accumulate best 18 score, whilst TD gives me 20 keepers to accumulate best 18 score.
TU gives me an extra premo in the mix. But TD gives me J Kelly, albeit at the expense of a Viney (2020 calibre keeper) who is best 18 so his absence promotes 19th player (probably Simpkin/Daniel).
TU bring in Haynes for Def rookie (get that extra premo in mix)
TD bring in J Kelly for Viney (get uber premo & trust Simpkin/Daniel)
Thanks Coaches