I’ve decided to do a little science experiment. The idea of the wisdom of the crowd suggests that the collective average of our predictions of the future should be considerably better than that of the average individual.
As a practical example, if, in a tipping competition, you always tip the favourite, you probably won’t win the overall thing, but you will end up being pretty highly ranked (likely top 10 to 20 percent, maybe better).
This has got me thinking: why shouldn’t this apply to SuperCoach scores?
To test the theory out, I’m putting up polls asking how you think some of the players from tonight’s game will score. I’ll repeat this each day until we have a decent sample size, and then I’ll take a look at the data and see how we went. I’ll also be comparing this to the bookmakers’ odds for these scores.
To start us off, who will be the top scorer in tonight’s Gold Coast vs Essendon game?
Who scores the most SuperCoach points tonight?
- Zach Merrett (50%, 82 Votes)
- Hugh Greenwood (23%, 38 Votes)
- Touk Miller (8%, 13 Votes)
- Dylan Shiel (7%, 11 Votes)
- Jarrod Witts (5%, 8 Votes)
- Jordan Ridley (4%, 6 Votes)
- Someone else I've named in the comments. (2%, 4 Votes)
- Adam Saad (2%, 3 Votes)
- David Swallow (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 165
Loading ...Next, how do we think each of these individual players will score?
What does Jarrod Witts score tonight?
- 100+ (68%, 102 Votes)
- Under 100 (20%, 30 Votes)
- 125+ (11%, 17 Votes)
- 150+ (1%, 2 Votes)
Total Voters: 151
Loading ...What does Touk Miller score tonight?
- 100+ (64%, 94 Votes)
- Under 100 (24%, 36 Votes)
- 125+ (11%, 17 Votes)
- 150+ (1%, 1 Votes)
Total Voters: 148
Loading ...What does Hugh Greenwood score tonight?
- 100+ (51%, 77 Votes)
- Under 100 (28%, 42 Votes)
- 125+ (20%, 30 Votes)
- 150+ (2%, 3 Votes)
Total Voters: 152
Loading ...What does David Swallow score tonight?
- Under 100 (87%, 122 Votes)
- 100+ (13%, 19 Votes)
- 125+ (0%, 0 Votes)
- 150+ (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 141
Loading ...What does Zach Merrett score tonight?
- 125+ (59%, 85 Votes)
- 100+ (32%, 46 Votes)
- Under 100 (7%, 10 Votes)
- 150+ (1%, 2 Votes)
Total Voters: 143
Loading ...What does Dylan Shiel score tonight?
- 100+ (56%, 79 Votes)
- Under 100 (28%, 40 Votes)
- 125+ (13%, 19 Votes)
- 150+ (2%, 3 Votes)
Total Voters: 141
Loading ...What does Jordan Ridley score tonight?
- 100+ (57%, 82 Votes)
- Under 100 (37%, 53 Votes)
- 125+ (4%, 6 Votes)
- 150+ (2%, 3 Votes)
Total Voters: 144
Loading ...What does Adam Saad score tonight?
- Under 100 (69%, 96 Votes)
- 100+ (27%, 38 Votes)
- 125+ (3%, 4 Votes)
- 150+ (1%, 1 Votes)
Total Voters: 139
Loading ...
Got any suggestions on how to make this experiment more successful? Got an idea for an experiment of your own that you’d like to see happen? Let us know in the comments below!
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Most supercoach points: Dev Smith 154
Why do you think he will have a poor night ?
Great idea, Salamander!
Something else could be Supercoach score to Brownlow votes.
Not sure how as non mid players score high but don’t get the same attention from the umpires. An example could be top 3 scores from the winning team or if the losing team have someone that scored more then the winners by say 25-30 they get a vote instead.
Have a ranking for each line, DEF, MID, RUC, FWD. So a mid is worth 100% of their score with ruck 95%, fwd 90% and def 85%. to even it out with umpires votes.
Trying to predict Brownlow votes based on stats is good fun – I’ve been doing it for the last few years, with varying degrees of success.
SuperCoach points and votes are definitely correlated, but not perfectly so. We do the Brownlow competition here every year, so I might be able to do something on this later in the year in the lead up to that.
Sal,
If we have enough interested people (your choice), I will speak to a friend, who will speak to a friend, who knows someone in a legal establishment, on how FAIREST and Best voting is/was discussed at umpire’s training.
Please do!
A couple years ago I did my own Brownlow prediction and a prediction based on Supercoach points and averaged it out and I think I came around 3rd in the SCTalk comp based on those so definitely correlated as you say.
I am doing it again this year so I can share it after the minor rounds are finished if people are interested.
Love this. Awesome concept!! SCT, you’ve done it again.
Great idea Sal.
I’m guessing the cut off time would be the official start of the game.
I will be entering my thoughts after assessing conditions and who is lining up on who which is normally just before the bounce.
Correct. The polls are set to expire once the game has started.
Thanks Sal.
What a great Idea.
What I would like to know is this…
How many ” Top Scorers” back it up ?
( we could use the top 2/3 from either team each game)
When looking to trade someone in….not all of us, but many, just love a huge score and a teeny tiny BE.
But, when we trade them in..can they “back it up” ?
How many of these guys that we trade in manage to say.. either
score 100+ or at least their average.
Eg: R9 Stewart scores 145
R10 Stewarts ownership triples, and he scores 68.
His price doesn’t really move. eg: you could wait a week.
then he scores 100.
Does this happen often ?
Should be more wary to jump on players after a big score ?
On the flip side of this A Brayshaw had a huge PB score of 144 and then “backed it” up with a 122.
We could also look at a who’s “on a roll”
Those players that have not only “backed it up”, but have posted above average scores multiple weeks in a row.
Thanks again Sal
Love this idea Sal
Things I reckon, Miller will run with Merrett.
Weller will run with Shiels.
Clarke will annoy Greenwood.
Rucks will even themselves out.
Which leaves us with McGrath and Swallow…and maybe Ellis as big scorers if disposal is good…..oh and Saad will run everywhere.
Hmmm pretty chose…..til 1/2 time……LOL