So who’s all set up for the bye rounds? For me, Round 14 looks okay but I’m still having problems with Round 15. I’d love to have a few more trades to sideways a few of these R15 bye underperforming premos. I’m looking at you Ziebell and Sheezel. If you also have this problem, with perhaps a few more trades, maybe I can find some value picks, that could potentially bank you some coin, and help keep that upgrade cadence going.
Keeping in mind it’s best to now trade in players that have already had their byes, I have tried to find R12 bye players this week, even though they may just exceed my usual 5% ownership cut off. I have also included a couple of super cheap options with low break evens. These guys still have their byes to come, but may rocket in price if you don’t jump on now. So let’s see if we can find some Rare Gems this week.
Defenders
Jake Lloyd (SYD, $519.100, 100.3, 8.1%, BE 91 )
Nick Blakey (SYD, $468.700, 96.7, 1.4%, BE 57)
Let’s face it the Jake “The Seagull” Lloyd isn’t quite finding as many chips this year. The Swans play a different game style and The lizard Blakey has come of age, and seems to be eating into his points a bit. Lloyd is still Lloyd though and he’s currently averaging a healthy 102.5. This is the 7th highest ranked average for defenders this year. I think he should be very safe pick that will serve you well. There is still a slight chance he regresses a bit if this next guy decides it’s time to stand up. Nick “The Lizard” Blakey just signed a 7 year extension to stay at the Swans. He is the future and I fully expect him to get to Premium status in the near future. Quite a few young stars start their rise to Premium status with a great second half of the year. It wouldn’t surprise me to see young Blakey join them. He has certainly showed the ceiling with a 151 already this year. The return of some tall stocks at the Swans should help free him up and hopefully lift his floor. Certainly still a risky pick, but one that may pay off.
Hayden Young ( FRE, $502.600, 96.3, 4.7, BE 104 )
Another “Young” defender that could spike in the back end of this year. Hayden has already featured in Rare Gems this year. As he’s had his Bye, I thought he was worth another look. Just like Fremantle this year, Young seems to be improving every week. He is sharing more of the kick ins and generally getting involved more around the ground. I think he could be set for great second half of the year. He certainly one I’m looking at to finish my back line. With his BE still quite high you could wait a week and pick him up before round 14.
Harry Himmelberg. (FWD) GWS, $369.900, 65, 0.8% BE 78 )
I thought I may get asked about Harry so here he is. I will keep it brief though. Harry looks great down back. Will he stay there though ? GWS have 3 best 22 defenders returning in the next few weeks. It would take a brave soul to bet he keeps that defensive role long term.The round 15 bye is bad, If he’s moved forward, it’s an absolute disaster.I personally wouldn’t take the risk.
Midfielders
Chad Warner (SYD, $552.200, 117.7, 6.1% BE 73 )
The Chad has been great the last month. He is a great stoppage player and looks fantastic bursting into space. The main downside is he’s still pretty unproven. Mills will come back in, but that may actually help him. At this current price it wont take much to get up to a Brayshaw or Neale. If you can’t quite afford these guys, I think Warner could still be a very solid selection going forward. At 6.1% ownership he’s one of the few performing midfielders that have maintained POD status. Certainly one to consider.
Forwards
Nic Martin ( ESS, $482.100, 110.7, 1.9% BE 52 )
This kid is turning into a sneaky good footballer. How both WA teams overlooked him is very hard to fathom. He can run like the wind, find space and always seems to pop up and score a goal or two. He has scored well against some lowly ranked teams, but Essendon still have a very easy fixture and Nic could easily continue his great form. The round 14 Bye is very rare for Premium forwards so if you like what you see, nows the time to jump. That BE of 52 means he could be over $500k after his Bye. Sheezel to Nic is only $18K and Ziebell down will net you nearly $40K, either one could help with your Byes as well. Well worth a look if you have the trades.
Ben Keays ( ADL, $369.000, 81.7, 1.2% BE 7 )
The last few weeks Ben been moved back into the midfield to do defensive jobs on the oppositions best players.This has lead to 100+ scores in the last fortnight. Ben was $548K to start the year so we know if he plays midfield he can score, even with a defensive role. The inclusion of Keays has pushed developing players in Rachelle and Soligo back forward. Will this continue ? Can he keep the “Keays” to the midfield ? To be honest, if I had the trades I maybe willing to take the risk. Just like Nick Martin above, Ben has the Round 14 Bye which is great for forwards. Trading down from a Ziebell or Sheezel will bank you cash, and help with your Bye structure. You need to jump now though, as that BE of just 7 means he’s about to rocket in price.
Well thats it for another Edition of Rare Gems. As always let me know if there’s any low owned players you are looking at for your sides.
Thanks for reading
Cheers FT.
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Another great article, FT.
Always find myself highly considering one of your gems and this week is no different although it seems like 80% of the comp too are favouring keays too.. makes sense with so many opting out of ziebell, sheezel and day.
I’m still 50/50 on him. I’m holding a small glimmer of hope that hall is omitted tonight and I can hold JZ long term and may pass on keays.. not completely sold on keeping his CBAs but he’s serious value if they hold.
Hey Mav.
Yeah don’t mind the Ziebell to Keays trade. Ziebell looks a bit cooked and while Hall is there I can’t see him getting back to his best. Should help with the byes and free up cash for future upgrades.
It’s been Warner v Neale all week for me.
I really like the Warner pick but it definitely hurts more if it goes wrong compare to Neale.
Baring something drastic with teams later, it’ll be Warner for me.
Hey L&L
Warner could really fire this week ( No Parker ) and go on in the back half of the year. Neale is certainly safer, but if you want a POD Warner may be your man.
Those desperate for a down grade this week. Ryan Maric $102K forward will debut for West Coast this week.
He has the Bye next week but should be back round 15 when we need him.
Freo Tragic
Thoughts on Nat Fyfe ?
I understand his chances of Injury being high but if he’s Not Injured .
Will he Keep His CBA’s and any chance of some good scores ?
Only Looking for him to be a Good Bench / Loop Option ?
If Injured he becomes a M/F Loop
Thumbs Up – Could prove a Master stroke
Thumbs Down – That’s Crazy Talk
Hey Regus.
He just signed on for 2 more years on much less cash, so he seems committed to the cause. Should get a fair bit of midfield time going forward as well. The big question is can his body hold up ?
For me it comes down to trades. If you think you can finish your team with 4+ trades then it maybe worth a punt on Fyfe. He only really needs to keep upright through the Bye rounds and its probably a win. Having an injury prone player as cover seems pretty risky to me. I can almost guarantee he will either get injured or be rested at some point later in the year.
Like I said if you have trades maybe. If not I don’t think he’s worth the risk.
I’m personally looking closely at Windhager from the Saints. $188K M/F will provide the same cover as Fyfe for a cheaper price and he’s more likely to be Durable. His BE is 71 so you could wait a week. He is named on Ball this week so I’m tempted to go early, as I would be trading Ziebell to him to avoid his cash drop.
Best of luck whatever you decide.
Also all those considering Himmelberg. GWS have flagged a permanent move to defence. Harry is in contract negations and prefers playing back. Looks like they will give him what he wants to try to entice him to stay.
He still hasn’t really been playing that loose role in defence yet. Keep an eye on him in the next fortnight. I will definitely look at him after his Bye if the roles there.
Great as always FT.
Would you go for Warner or Steele this week? Warner probably has better recent form but Steele is a proven performer. I can’t afford the big dogs such as Neale or Brayshaw…
Yeah, this is a tough one.
I have Steele in my team already, though I don’t have much confidence he can return to his best. Hopefully the Bye helps him rest up and gets back to somewhere close to how he’s played the last few years.
Warner is more inconsistent but could definitely get on heater. I would almost be inclined to move a Dawson into the midfield and get a defender. I’m looking at doing this as I don’t really have any defensive cover. Having the ability to swing Dawson back and then play my midfield cover is probably my best play. Maybe take a punt on Lloyd or even Sinclair as they are pretty fairly priced atm.
I can’t exactly fit him in due to my bye structure round 15 is cooked for me but this is an easy swap for JZ if ya can make R15 work… and his name is Bailey Dale! with richards and JJ out he has a nice role again now and that fixture at marvel is handy should be alot of games with the roof closed limiting wet weather scrappy footy… he has a nice ceiling a too