Rookie Review – Round 15

Rookie Review – Round 15


The rookie cupboard isn’t exactly full, but for the first time in months it isn’t completely empty either.

We’ve spent most of this season debating whether a rookie averaging 38 was worth trading in. Suddenly we’ve got bubble boys, Mid-Season Draft recruits and actual choices to make.

It’s all a bit overwhelming. So let’s keep it simple.

Buy Hugo Hall-Kahan if you don’t already own him.

Have a look at Jai Murray if you’re shopping among the traditional bubble boys.

And keep a very close eye on the next wave of $99k rookies, particularly Joel Fitzgerald, Kye Annand, Mitch Podhajski, Marcus Herbert and Jaxon Artemis.

For the first time in a while, we might actually have enough rookies to finish our teams.

What a time to be alive.

Rookie Targets

These are the players who have already played at least two games and are either on the bubble or still have reasonable cash generation left.

 

Hugo Hall-Kahan

The standout rookie this week.

Hall-Kahan was drafted by Adelaide and needed all of five days before finding himself in the AFL side. That tells us the Crows didn’t recruit him as a project player. They recruited him to play.

The mature-aged defender has now played two games and looks very comfortable at AFL level. His average of 70 and break even of -80 make him the clear number one rookie target this week.

The DEF/MID DPP is a nice bonus as well.

In fact, Hall-Kahan might end up being the perfect way to work out how many SuperCoach teams are still active. More than 77,000 coaches had already traded him in before he had even played his second game. If he’s named this week, I’d expect that number to be everyone who is still ‘active’.

At this point, if you’re still actively playing SuperCoach and don’t own Hall-Kahan, people may start checking in to see if you’re okay.

He isn’t quite at must-have status yet because rookie job security has burnt us all season.

But if he’s named again this week, he gets about as close to a must-have rookie as you’ll find in Round 15.

Jai Murray

Of the traditional bubble boys, Murray is probably the standout.

He looked very good on the weekend and, more importantly, looked like he belonged at AFL level.

Two games, an average of 55 and a break even of -30 is perfectly acceptable at this stage of the season.

His JS isn’t bulletproof, but based on what he showed last week I’d be surprised if he doesn’t hold his place for a while yet.

The biggest issue is probably his price. At $131k he’s not quite basement-priced and that alone will turn some coaches away, particularly when there are so many $99k options appearing.

Still, if you’re looking purely at football ability and job security, he’s one of the better rookie options available.

Jasper Alger

Alger has now played three games and returns from Richmond’s bye.

The scoring isn’t spectacular but the break even of -34 means there is still cash to be made.

Richmond’s injury list continues to provide opportunities and his JS looks reasonable enough for now.

At this stage of the season we’re not asking rookies to average 80.

We’re asking them to survive team selection and make enough money to help complete our teams.

Alger can probably do that.

Campbell Lake

Lake was another Mid-Season Draft recruit and has now played two games.

The problem is his role.

Small forwards and SuperCoach scoring have never been a particularly happy marriage.

His scoring hasn’t been great, which is exactly what you’d expect from the role he is playing.

The bigger concern is job security.

St Kilda still have a few players expected back over the coming weeks and there will be competition for spots.

He also has the Round 16 bye before many coaches will see meaningful cash generation.

For now I’d classify him as watch teams, but if I’m being honest he’s probably closer to a pass than a buy.

The Rest

Ben Jepson, Liam Fawcett and Cameron Nairn all remain serviceable options if you already own them.

Nairn’s MID/FWD DPP is handy and may prove useful during the final bye rounds.

Tom Cochrane’s break even is a bit high and Harrison Oliver’s job security remains a concern.

Neither would be priorities this week.

Mid-Season Draft Targets

The biggest story in the rookie market isn’t actually the bubble boys.

It’s the wave of Mid-Season Draft recruits arriving at exactly the right time.

We already have Hall-Kahan and Lake on the bubble. The next wave of Mid-Season Draft recruits is not far behind and could become very relevant over the next fortnight.

 

Joel Fitzgerald

Fitzgerald is probably the player most coaches will be watching at team selection.

The midfielder scored 73 in his first AFL game and looked comfortable at the level.

The interesting part is who he replaced. Fitzgerald came into Melbourne’s side for Windsor, who was managed with a sore toe. If Fitzgerald gets named again this week and Windsor also returns to the side, that would be a huge tick for his job security. That’s what coaches should be looking for.

Not just whether he’s named, but whether Melbourne are finding a way to keep him in the team.

Kye Annand

Richmond are rebuilding. That generally means opportunities.

Annand looked comfortable in his first game and scored 66 playing across half-back.

The Tigers have no shortage of spots available and I’d be surprised if he isn’t given a decent run at AFL level.

At $99k he’s certainly worth considering.

Marcus Herbert

If West Coast didn’t have the bye this week, Herbert would probably be one of the most talked-about rookies in the game.

A score of 75 on debut and a break even of -33 immediately catches the eye.

The Eagles are clearly looking towards the future and Herbert looks like the type of player who could get a decent run at AFL level.

More importantly, he looked like a footballer.

There was one head-over-the-ball contest right in front of the coaches’ box that really stood out. It was exactly the sort of effort that AFL coaches notice.

West Coast have the bye this week, so we get another week to assess the situation, but he’s firmly on the watchlist.

Mitch Podhajski

Podhajski’s score of 52 on debut was solid enough and his job security actually looks reasonably good.

The good news is there is no rush.

The Cats have the bye next week, meaning he won’t rise in price before then.

That gives coaches an extra week to assess whether he’s worth jumping on.

For now he’s worth watching, but there is no need to rush into a decision.

Jaxon Artemis

Artemis hasn’t played yet but remains one of the most interesting rookie prospects in the game.

The former WA captain was unlucky to miss out in the National Draft and many expected him to be drafted much earlier than he eventually was.

He’s AFL-ready, has genuine speed and endurance and uses the ball well.

More importantly, he fills a need.

With Archie Roberts now sidelined through injury, there appears to be a clear pathway into Essendon’s defence.

The Bombers have struggled all season to move the ball cleanly from defence and Artemis is exactly the type of player that can help address that problem.

If he comes into the side after the bye, he could immediately find himself in a role that is very SuperCoach friendly.

At $99,100 and with what appears to be decent job security, he may become one of the most popular downgrade targets over the next fortnight.

 

Taylor Goad

Goad is a little different to the rest of this table because he isn’t a Mid-Season Draft recruit.

The 205cm ruckman made his AFL debut last week for North Melbourne and immediately caught the attention of SuperCoach coaches.

Not because of his score of 43, But because of his role.

Goad attended approximately 60% of North Melbourne’s centre bounces, with Tristan Xerri spending significantly more time forward than we’ve become accustomed to.

That’s a very interesting development.

North Melbourne may have decided that a two-ruck structure is their best option moving forward, particularly with Xerri carrying such a heavy workload throughout the season.

If Goad holds his spot, there is every chance he receives another meaningful ruck role this week.

For now, I’d be watching team selection very closely.

If he’s named again and retains a significant share of the ruck duties, he becomes a lot more interesting than his current scoreline suggests.

Conclusion

This week feels fairly straightforward.

If you don’t own Hugo Hall-Kahan, he should be your first priority. He’s basement priced, had his bye, has already shown he can score at AFL level and his DEF/MID status is a bonus.

After that, Jai Murray is probably the pick of the traditional bubble boys. He’s a little more expensive than the basement-priced options, but he looked good on the weekend and appears likely to hold his spot.

From there, I’d be turning my attention to the next wave of Mid-Season Draft recruits.

Joel Fitzgerald, Kye Annand and Mitch Podhajski all look capable of becoming relevant very quickly if they can hold their spots. Fitzgerald is probably the most exciting from a SuperCoach perspective, while Annand looks to have a clear pathway to games in Richmond’s defence.

And don’t forget Jaxon Artemis and Marcus Herbert, who both have the bye this week. Neither can make you money immediately, but both look capable of becoming important downgrade targets over the next fortnight.

For the first time in a long time, we actually have rookie options.

The challenge now isn’t finding a rookie.

It’s deciding which one to pick.

thanks fellas