This is the time of year where rookie management becomes one of the biggest factors in building a full premium side.

Early in the season, rookies are all about cash generation. The goal is simple, turn cheap players into enough money that by the middle of the season you can upgrade into genuine premiums. Most successful teams need to push total team value towards that $14M mark, and rookies are the engine that gets you there.

Now we start reaching the tricky part.

Some rookies are still on the way up and are clear buy targets. Others are slowing down, and once their break even starts getting close to, or above, their average, it is usually time to move them on. This is where coaches need to be ruthless. Holding too long often means missing the best cash-out point.

There are also plenty of players who have only played one game that are not included here. We generally want at least two games before making a decision, unless there is something exceptional. Even then, job security is everything. There are plenty of cheap rookies available, but if they are dropped the following week, they quickly become sideways trade problems.

This week there are a few very clear buy targets, and also a few obvious sells among the highly owned players.

BUY

Sam Cumming is the clear number one buy this week. He was on the preseason radar, now has two strong games and is properly on the bubble. The role looks excellent, the scoring has been strong, and the job security looks solid. He is a little more expensive than basement rookies, but he looks like the safest downgrade option and should generate strong cash.

Thomas Burton is the cheap option everyone will look at. Basement price, two good games and a very low BE makes him hard to ignore. The issue is job security and the fact he is MID only, which can make structure awkward. If he holds his place, he could be a great cash cow.

Arthur Jones probably should have been on the buy list last week. He played his third game after missing time with injury, but he is still cheap and still has a very low BE. The MID/FWD swing is valuable and he looks like a good player who can score well enough to be useful on field.

Jedd Busslinger is the premium rookie option. He had strong VFL form, got another chance because of Bulldogs injuries, and has started with scores of 99 and 96. The higher starting price means you won’t make as much cash as a basement rookie, but he should still make strong money and looks to have very solid job security.

Liam Reidy is still a solid option, especially for coaches needing RUC/FWD flexibility. He got his opportunity with pittonet getting injured but held his place last week even with Pittonet back. His score last week of only 25 would make it a very tough buy, but his low BE means he will make some cash.

Patrick Retschiko was probably a better buy last week. He has now played three games and already gone up in price, but the BE is still workable. Being MID only makes him a little harder to fit, and most coaches would probably choose Cumming first.

Dyson Sharp has now played four games and is still only $162,500. He has had genuine midfield time and there is still the chance of a spike score that gets his cash generation moving quickly. He is more of a patient play, but still very relevant.

Players like Conor McKenna, William Edwards, Charlie Edwards and Paddy Cross are also options, especially if you are looking for cheap downgrades on other lines besides midfield.

If you look through the SuperCoach data, there are around 10 players priced under $150,000 who have played two games, but many of them have poor job security. They can work, but they are much harder to confidently recommend.

RISKY BUY

These players can work, but the concern is job security. They are mostly cheaper downgrade targets for coaches needing DEF or FWD cover rather than another midfielder. If they hold their spot, they can make useful cash, but they are much harder to trust and can quickly become sideways trade problems if omitted.

HOLD

These are the players that can usually wait another week or two.

Some still have a little cash to make, some are still playable on field, and some are simply not urgent enough to burn a trade on right now.

SELL

The basic rookie sell theory is fairly simple, once a player’s break even gets close to, or above, their average, it is usually time to move them on.

That normally means the best part of their cash generation is done. They might still score okay, but the fast money has usually already been made, and holding too long often means you miss the chance to turn that cash into a premium upgrade.

Tom Blamires is a good example this week. He got a late call-up to play last week, which helped owners, but it also puts some doubt around his job security going forward. He has done a very good job and made strong cash for us, but once role uncertainty starts creeping in, that is often the signal to move.

Serong, Grlj and Farrow are probably the clearest sells this week. Their job security still looks fine, but the cash generation has slowed right down and they have likely reached their peak. All three are over $300k, which makes them perfect one-up, one-down trade targets.

Selling players like Serong, Grlj and Farrow should usually generate enough cash to turn one rookie into a premium while also bringing in the next downgrade target.

That is how full premium teams are built.

Sometimes coaches hold rookies too long because they are still scoring okay, but SuperCoach is usually won by being slightly early, not slightly late.

 

thanks fellas