Scoring Anomalies – Round 13

This week, I’m going to do much the same as last week, but with two scores from Round 13. For this, I’ve picked out Collingwood’s Brayden Maynard and Jamie Elliot from the above chart.

For reference, here’s how the game went:

Once again, I’ve added up the time-series-based score by hand this week. They’re still slightly different from the SyntheticCoach raw scores (Maynard was 188 instead of 188.5, and Elliot added up to 80 instead of 78). I’m not actually sure which one of these is more accurate, but they’re close enough for what we’re trying to accomplish here today.

Based on the unweighted scores, the multiplier for the game was approximately 0.826, meaning we need to get Elliot’s weighted raw score up from 80 to around 97, and Maynard’s down from 188 to about 172.

One thing that I noticed early on was that the third quarter was Elliot’s busiest, and Maynard’s quietest, so that seemed like an appropriate place to start.

It also occurred to me that CD would probably want to keep the average weighting for the game at 1, so I’ve tried to do the same.

The highest weighting I went to for a quarter last week was 1.75, so I started there this week. I bumped the other three quarters down to 0.75 to get the aforementioned average to 1. Here’s how it went:

Q1: 0.75 Q2: 0.75 Q3: 1.75 Q4: 0.75

Elliot: 93, Maynard: 174.5

For a first guess, that’s got me pretty close to where I needed to be. Pushing it a little further:

Q1: 0.66 Q2: 0.66 Q3: 2 Q4: 0.66

Elliot: 97, Maynard: 169

Elliot’s score is bang-on, and Maynard is only 3 points off. Given that the true multiplier is unknown (I would need all the weighted raw scores from the game in order to calculate it), we can probably stop at this point, and say “close enough.”

That went a bit quicker than I was expecting!

For comparison, I also tried to infer some weightings from the live scores on the day (thanks to Lock and Load for suggesting this idea, and to Lisa for for posting quarter-by-quarter score updates in that match’s Game Chat thread.) By comparing the proportions of change in actual score and change in raw score, divided by the multiplier to try and account for in-game scaling, I was able to get weightings of 0.98 for the first half, 1.19 for the third quarter, and 0.61 for the last quarter (though the weighting for the last quarter was based on the final, post-game, post-weighting scores, so that may not be totally accurate). This actually gets Maynard right to where we need him at 172, but doesn’t get Elliot anywhere near 97, leaving him in the mid-70s.

In practice, the final weightings are not determined by Champion Data until after the game has finished, so it’s probably not really possible to infer the actual weightings from the live scores.

The biggest thing I’ve learned in the last two weeks of doing this is that CD seems to weight different periods of the game far more aggressively than I had originally assumed.

This doesn’t necessarily get me much closer to the aim of being able to have a machine look at the score worm and determine the appropriate weightings, but I do at least have a clearer idea of what those weightings will tend to look like. The caveat here is that we have a sample size of just two games for that, so I will need to keep investigating that further in the coming weeks.

In the meantime, you can look up any player you like in the table below to see how their score was affected by scaling on the weekend; for an in-depth breakdown of their scoring, see the spreadsheets attached at the bottom of this post.

The exception to the above this week is Hawthorn’s Jai Newcombe. I haven’t added the mid-season draftees to the bit of SyntheticCoach that lets me get each player’s real score into the table; I’d got away with it up until now, because none of them had played until the weekend. I’ll get that fixed up for next week.

 

Name	Club	Raw	Linear-Scaled	Actual	Diff
Callum Coleman-Jones	RICH	100	79	81	2
Chris Burgess	GCFC	86.5	71	77	6
John Noble	COLL	85	70	64	-6
Liam Baker	RICH	91	72	66	-6
Lachie Schultz	FRE	66.5	55	56	1
Tom Doedee	ADEL	94	79	72	-7
Jack Henry	GEEL	122	111	110	-1
Max Lynch	COLL	86.5	71	63	-8
Harry Morrison	HAW	46	34	39	5
Willem Drew	PORT	88.5	80	72	-8
Daniel Rioli	RICH	84.5	67	60	-7
Nick Larkey	NMFC	58.5	47	48	1
Izak Rankine	GCFC	65	54	64	10
Connor Rozee	PORT	122	111	126	15
Isaac Cumming	GWS	82	66	68	2
Bayley Fritsch	MELB	49	40	44	4
Ben McKay	NMFC	52.5	42	52	10
Esava Ratugolea	GEEL	83	75	66	-9
James Worpel	HAW	76	57	63	6
Jack Higgins	STK	103	86	85	-1
Andrew Brayshaw	FRE	125.5	104	92	-12
Adam Cerra	FRE	116.5	96	97	1
Jaidyn Stephenson	NMFC	83	67	70	3
Noah Balta	RICH	71.5	56	72	16
Kane Farrell	PORT	26.5	24	22	-2
Hunter Clark	STK	32	27	23	-4
Luke Davies-Uniacke	NMFC	104.5	84	74	-10
Charlie Spargo	MELB	34.5	28	31	3
James Bell	SYD	85	64	64	0
Mitch Crowden	FRE	25.5	21	19	-2
Jack Bytel	STK	32	27	22	-5
Jack Lukosius	GCFC	78.5	65	72	7
Zac Langdon	WCE	81	64	57	-7
Liam Ryan	WCE	64	51	51	0
Oscar Allen	WCE	79.5	63	78	15
Beau McCreery	COLL	49	40	50	10
Lachie Young	NMFC	41	33	29	-4
Tristan Xerri	NMFC	47.5	38	41	3
Jordon Butts	ADEL	73	61	58	-3
Todd Marshall	PORT	4	4	4	0
Josh Daicos	COLL	64	53	48	-5
Nathan Murphy	COLL	15.5	13	12	-1
Kade Chandler	MELB	0	0	0	0
Josh Corbett	GCFC	0	0	0	0
Luke Foley	WCE	111	88	82	-6
Nick Coffield	STK	39.5	33	31	-2
Tarryn Thomas	NMFC	90	72	77	5
Malcolm Rosas	GCFC	18.5	15	21	6
Liam Henry	FRE	59.5	49	55	6
Jacob Koschitzke	HAW	57	43	49	6
Bailey Scott	NMFC	49.5	40	38	-2
Caleb Graham	GCFC	12.5	10	9	-1
James Rowbottom	SYD	115	86	77	-9
Xavier O'Halloran	GWS	0	0	0	0
Lachlan Sholl	ADEL	0	0	0	0
Curtis Taylor	NMFC	0	0	0	0
Max King	STK	99.5	83	89	6
Ben King	GCFC	21	17	22	5
Bobby Hill	GWS	33.5	27	29	2
Chayce Jones	ADEL	58.5	49	51	2
Sam Wicks	SYD	89.5	67	66	-1
Dylan Moore	HAW	117	88	85	-3
Luke Edwards	WCE	131	103	96	-7
Mark O'Connor	GEEL	64.5	59	60	1
Jake Stein	GWS	42.5	34	32	-2
Wil Powell	GCFC	112	92	97	5
Connor Idun	GWS	92.5	75	76	1
Isaac Quaynor	COLL	104.5	86	92	6
Joel Amartey	SYD	103.5	78	70	-8
Will Hamill	ADEL	66.5	56	55	-1
Ned McHenry	ADEL	37	31	34	3
Tom McCartin	SYD	78	58	61	3
Xavier O'Neill	WCE	0	0	0	0
Riley Thilthorpe	ADEL	125.5	105	110	5
Josh Morris	HAW	20	15	14	-1
Kysaiah Pickett	MELB	64	53	44	-9
Harry Schoenberg	ADEL	92.5	78	94	16
Will Day	HAW	64	48	43	-5
Charlie Ballard	GCFC	99.5	82	73	-9
Harrison Petty	MELB	66	54	55	1
Trent Bianco	COLL	23	19	23	4
Jack Mahony	NMFC	91.5	74	70	-4
Miles Bergman	PORT	69.5	63	64	1
Noah Anderson	GCFC	52.5	43	52	9
Matt Rowell	GCFC	65.5	54	54	0
Lachie Ash	GWS	85.5	69	67	-2
Sam Flanders	GCFC	71.5	59	62	3
Trent Rivers	MELB	81.5	67	73	6
Luke Jackson	MELB	131.5	109	113	4
Joel Western	FRE	29.5	24	27	3
Brandon Walker	FRE	72.5	60	50	-10
Caleb Serong	FRE	107.5	89	80	-9
Tom Green	GWS	72.5	58	60	2
Jack Buckley	GWS	85.5	69	76	7
Mitch Georgiades	PORT	61	55	67	12
Jack Madgen	COLL	82.5	68	75	7
Harry Edwards	WCE	118.5	94	89	-5
Lachie Jones	PORT	63.5	58	43	-15
Caleb Poulter	COLL	64	53	61	8
Tom Powell	NMFC	81	65	70	5
Justin McInerney	SYD	72.5	54	52	-2
Josh Worrell	ADEL	17	14	13	-1
Hugo Ralphsmith	RICH	0	0	0	0
Ryan Byrnes	STK	84.5	71	64	-7
Sam Berry	ADEL	81.5	68	60	-8
Josh Treacy	FRE	99.5	82	95	13
Logan McDonald	SYD	57.5	43	44	1
James Jordon	MELB	121	100	99	-1
Jay Rantall	COLL	21.5	18	11	-7
Jai Newcombe	HAW	104	78		-78
Shaun Burgoyne	HAW	64	48	54	6
David Mundy	FRE	117	97	95	-2
Shannon Hurn	WCE	136	107	122	15
Lance Franklin	SYD	59.5	45	47	2
Josh J. Kennedy	WCE	127.5	101	109	8
Paddy Ryder	STK	50.5	42	34	-8
Bachar Houli	RICH	137	108	99	-9
Joel Selwood	GEEL	99	90	92	2
David Mackay	ADEL	71.5	60	65	5
Travis Boak	PORT	131	119	108	-11
Jack Riewoldt	RICH	73.5	58	56	-2
Shaun Higgins	GEEL	66	60	60	0
Scott Pendlebury	COLL	195	161	167	6
Josh P. Kennedy	SYD	148	111	107	-4
Shane Edwards	RICH	70.5	56	57	1
Ben McEvoy	HAW	157	118	116	-2
Sam J. Reid	GWS	70.5	57	69	12
Robbie Gray	PORT	103.5	94	105	11
Tom Hawkins	GEEL	124.5	113	110	-3
Robbie Tarrant	NMFC	76.5	62	59	-3
Lachie Henderson	GEEL	30	27	27	0
Trent Cotchin	RICH	62.5	49	49	0
Patrick Dangerfield	GEEL	69.5	63	66	3
Rory Sloane	ADEL	122	102	103	1
Matt de Boer	GWS	37.5	30	33	3
Nic Naitanui	WCE	164	129	125	-4
Todd Goldstein	NMFC	159	128	126	-2
Jordan Roughead	COLL	76	63	57	-6
Callan Ward	GWS	124	100	84	-16
Chris Mayne	COLL	117.5	97	86	-11
Taylor Walker	ADEL	47	39	34	-5
Charlie Dixon	PORT	113	103	110	7
Zac Smith	GCFC	89.5	74	73	-1
Liam Shiels	HAW	126	94	95	1
Luke Breust	HAW	102	76	73	-3
Shane Mumford	GWS	94.5	76	77	1
Dylan Grimes	RICH	104.5	82	91	9
Ben Cunnington	NMFC	155	125	129	4
Jack Ziebell	NMFC	120	97	91	-6
Steele Sidebottom	COLL	87.5	72	74	2
Travis Colyer	FRE	88	73	84	11
Steven Motlop	PORT	42.5	39	36	-3
Michael Walters	FRE	91	75	79	4
Mitch Duncan	GEEL	71	65	74	9
Steven May	MELB	134	111	111	0
Hugh Greenwood	GCFC	143	118	117	-1
Jack Redden	WCE	153	121	113	-8
Kane Lambert	RICH	111	88	82	-6
Michael Hibberd	MELB	72	59	63	4
Josh Thomas	COLL	71	59	60	1
Dane Rampe	SYD	154.5	116	131	15
Trent McKenzie	PORT	83.5	76	78	2
Max Gawn	MELB	155	128	123	-5
Josh Caddy	RICH	77.5	61	58	-3
Daniel Lloyd	GWS	81	65	69	4
Jimmy Webster	STK	80.5	68	57	-11
Luke Parker	SYD	125.5	94	86	-8
Shaun Atley	NMFC	105	85	82	-3
Andrew Gaff	WCE	105.5	83	80	-3
Reece Conca	FRE	91.5	76	68	-8
Jamie Cripps	WCE	88.5	70	72	2
David Swallow	GCFC	140	116	117	1
Jack Darling	WCE	37.5	30	27	-3
Dustin Martin	RICH	126.5	100	110	10
Jonathon Ceglar	HAW	168.5	126	131	5
Gary Rohan	GEEL	127.5	116	122	6
Adam Kennedy	GWS	58	47	53	6
Luke Dahlhaus	GEEL	38.5	35	36	1
Tom McDonald	MELB	62.5	52	52	0
Josh Walker	NMFC	54.5	44	40	-4
Will Hoskin-Elliott	COLL	105.5	87	85	-2
Brodie Smith	ADEL	79.5	67	63	-4
Tom Stewart	GEEL	131.5	120	130	10
Robbie Fox	SYD	73	55	61	6
Brody Mihocek	COLL	74.5	62	70	8
Tom Mitchell	HAW	180	135	134	-1
Chad Wingard	HAW	76	57	66	9
Harry Cunningham	SYD	48	36	40	4
Elliot Yeo	WCE	122	96	99	3
Tom Jonas	PORT	54	49	53	4
Zach Tuohy	GEEL	56.5	51	47	-4
Rory Laird	ADEL	142	119	132	13
Brandon Ellis	GCFC	105.5	87	87	0
Sam Frost	HAW	90.5	68	69	1
Jamie Elliott	COLL	78	64	80	16
Jeremy Cameron	GEEL	149.5	136	151	15
Jack Crisp	COLL	92	76	79	3
Jed Bews	GEEL	60.5	55	52	-3
Sean Lemmens	GCFC	97.5	80	72	-8
George Hewett	SYD	82	61	66	5
Sam Menegola	GEEL	89.5	81	85	4
Tom Hickey	SYD	127	95	96	1
Lachie Whitfield	GWS	104	84	74	-10
Brad Crouch	STK	164.5	138	124	-14
Ollie Wines	PORT	153.5	140	144	4
Luke Dunstan	STK	132	111	105	-6
Aliir Aliir	PORT	94	85	84	-1
Kamdyn McIntosh	RICH	62	49	55	6
Jaeger O'Meara	HAW	123	92	81	-11
Alex Sexton	GCFC	29.5	24	18	-6
Nick Vlastuin	RICH	146.5	116	116	0
Paul Seedsman	ADEL	117.5	99	100	1
Isaac Smith	GEEL	93.5	85	89	4
James Aish	FRE	148	122	111	-11
Nathan Broad	RICH	138	109	94	-15
Nick Haynes	GWS	153	123	118	-5
Mason Wood	STK	95.5	80	94	14
Jake Lloyd	SYD	138.5	104	104	0
Toby Greene	GWS	122.5	99	103	4
Bradley Hill	STK	106	89	94	5
Trent Dumont	NMFC	105.5	85	77	-8
Tim O'Brien	HAW	74.5	56	65	9
Taylor Garner	NMFC	32	26	33	7
Jack Steele	STK	174	146	126	-20
Lewis Taylor	SYD	43	32	31	-1
Jarman Impey	HAW	68	51	51	0
Jake Kolodjashnij	GEEL	40.5	37	37	0
Blake Acres	FRE	126	104	93	-11
Dom Sheed	WCE	102	81	71	-10
Josh Kelly	GWS	207	167	147	-20
Jack Billings	STK	97.5	82	87	5
Christian Salem	MELB	126.5	104	99	-5
Brett Bewley	FRE	99	82	81	-1
Alex Neal-Bullen	MELB	76.5	63	61	-2
Callum Wilkie	STK	61.5	52	73	21
Mark Blicavs	GEEL	99.5	90	83	-7
Aaron Hall	NMFC	156.5	126	141	15
Karl Amon	PORT	80.5	73	61	-12
Nick Holman	GCFC	59.5	49	46	-3
Jake Kelly	ADEL	79.5	67	65	-2
Reilly O'Brien	ADEL	126.5	106	90	-16
James Harmes	MELB	110.5	91	88	-3
Jeremy Finlayson	GWS	60	48	47	-1
Christian Petracca	MELB	124.5	103	96	-7
Ed Langdon	MELB	84	69	62	-7
Liam Duggan	WCE	55.5	44	43	-1
Touk Miller	GCFC	144.5	119	127	8
Angus Brayshaw	MELB	81	67	60	-7
Jake Lever	MELB	89.5	74	77	3
Darcy Moore	COLL	112	92	98	6
Jackson Nelson	WCE	71.5	56	57	1
Oleg Markov	GCFC	105	87	91	4
Alex Pearce	FRE	85.5	71	78	7
Brandan Parfitt	GEEL	90.5	82	85	3
Connor Blakely	FRE	0	0	0	0
Shane McAdam	ADEL	45	38	41	3
Lachie Weller	GCFC	69	57	54	-3
Isaac Heeney	SYD	52	39	42	3
Tom Barrass	WCE	85.5	67	80	13
Darcy Cameron	COLL	130.5	108	113	5
Rory Lobb	FRE	127.5	105	110	5
Jack Graham	RICH	104	82	82	0
Darcy Byrne-Jones	PORT	66	60	59	-1
Jason Castagna	RICH	44.5	35	33	-2
Jack Lonie	STK	47.5	40	33	-7
Brayden Maynard	COLL	188.5	156	142	-14
Jayden Short	RICH	133.5	105	111	6
Ryan Burton	PORT	78	71	73	2
Jordan Dawson	SYD	93	70	73	3
Dan Butler	STK	91.5	77	77	0
Daniel Howe	HAW	111	83	84	1
Kayne Turner	NMFC	78	63	64	1
Paul Hunter	STK	37.5	31	36	5
Jake Aarts	RICH	78	62	60	-2
Harry Himmelberg	GWS	116	93	89	-4
Dougal Howard	STK	160	134	160	26
Marlion Pickett	RICH	91	72	73	1
Blake Hardwick	HAW	108.5	81	72	-9
Sam Weideman	MELB	30	25	22	-3
Darcy Tucker	FRE	126	104	95	-9
Tom Cole	WCE	64	51	52	1
Matt Flynn	GWS	123	99	117	18
Jacob Hopper	GWS	93	75	67	-8
Callum Mills	SYD	159	119	105	-14
Ben Long	STK	87	73	94	21
Ben Keays	ADEL	122.5	103	103	0
Sam Powell-Pepper	PORT	48.5	44	40	-4
Shai Bolton	RICH	121.5	96	96	0
Jy Simpkin	NMFC	165	133	128	-5
Mabior Chol	RICH	79	62	65	3
Jordan De Goey	COLL	130	107	115	8
Dan Houston	PORT	119.5	109	102	-7
Jayden Hunt	MELB	77	64	58	-6
Tom Atkins	GEEL	38.5	35	35	0
Jack Sinclair	STK	150.5	126	126	0
Riley Bonner	PORT	48	44	40	-4
Tom Phillips	HAW	132.5	99	92	-7
Jake Waterman	WCE	58.5	46	48	2
Clayton Oliver	MELB	128.5	106	108	2
Tom Papley	SYD	50.5	38	32	-6
Will Hayward	SYD	32.5	24	28	4
Peter Ladhams	PORT	120	109	93	-16
Andrew McPherson	ADEL	83	70	72	2
Josh Rotham	WCE	71	56	51	-5
Oliver Florent	SYD	78.5	59	63	4
Jack Scrimshaw	HAW	121.5	91	94	3
Taylin Duman	FRE	118.5	98	91	-7
Josh Battle	STK	48.5	41	36	-5
Sean Darcy	FRE	181	149	140	-9
Tim Taranto	GWS	128.5	104	101	-3
Tom Highmore	STK	141	118	111	-7
Jack Bowes	GCFC	85.5	71	75	4
Changkuoth Jiath	HAW	153.5	115	112	-3
Cameron Zurhaar	NMFC	124.5	100	106	6
Luke Ryan	FRE	146	120	128	8
Jamaine Jones	WCE	46	36	34	-2
James Rowe	ADEL	91.5	77	66	-11
Brad Close	GEEL	79	72	66	-6
Darcy Fogarty	ADEL	44	37	38	1
Boyd Woodcock	PORT	35	32	32	0
Tom Sparrow	MELB	44	36	37	1
Quinton Narkle	GEEL	0	0	0	0

 

LEGEND:

Raw: SuperCoach points, added up according to the formula put out by Champion Data, before any scaling.

Linear-Scaled: Raw points, multiplied by a multiplier (3300 / total raw points for the match) to get the scores in each game to add up to 3300.

Actual: Actual SuperCoach points, as awarded by Champion Data.

Diff: Difference between actual and linear-scaled points. In practice, this is how favourably or unfavourably a player was scaled – this is ultimately what I’m setting out to investigate.

 

Download the full breakdowns:

Round 13 Full Breakdown (Stat-By-Stat)

Round 13 Summary (General Categories)

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