SCT 2 @SCT – The Finals Equation
Before we get into the chaos of the final round, a quick introduction to SCT 2.
SCT 2 is one of the SuperCoachTalk community leagues, featuring a very strong group of experienced and highly ranked coaches.
With one round remaining, seven teams are fighting for the final five spots in the top eight.
The equation is simple: Finish in the top eight and you play finals. Finish ninth and you spend the next few weeks telling everyone you were “actually one of the highest-scoring teams in the league.”
The ladder heading into the final round
Anyone below 10th can start planning Mad Monday. Even with a win, they can only reach 36 points, so the finals race is down to these ten teams.
Chris’s Crushers, TRIXKKXXVI and Tajerland are safely through.
That leaves seven teams fighting over five remaining finals spots.
And whoever programmed the Round 20 fixture deserves some credit, because there are two absolute belters.
LeGoat v Winterblues – an elimination final a week early
This is enormous. 6th v 8th. Both on 40 points.
The maths could not be much simpler.
Win and you’re on 44 points. You’re playing finals. Congratulations.
Lose, and you remain stranded on 40, nervously refreshing the scores from every other game while pretending you’re not.
LeGoat has the slightly healthier percentage at 101.0%, while Winterblues sits at 100.4%, so James has a small insurance policy if things go badly. But nobody wants to make an insurance claim.
The loser suddenly becomes very interested in MackAttack (9th) and Dancing Dongas (10th).
For James and Ross, there is really only one sensible strategy, Win the bloody game.
Back-seat Lions v Dancing Dongas
This one could cause absolute chaos.
Back-seat Lions currently sit 7th on 40 points, while Dancing Dongas are 10th on 36.
For William, the equation is beautiful, Win = 44 points = finals.
No calculators. No percentage. No cheering for Graeme. No emergency prayer circle on Sunday afternoon.
But if Dancing Dongas get up?
Oh boy. Dancing Dongas move to 40 points, Back-seat Lions stay on 40, and suddenly we’re reaching for the percentage calculator.
William does have a decent head start: 100.4% compared with Trent’s 98.5%.
So Trent may not just need to win. He may need to win by 150 points.
MackAttack v TRIXKKXXVI – Mack needs to knock off a heavyweight
MackAttack sits 9th on 36 points with a very useful 99.8%.
The problem? Travis has drawn second-placed TRIXKKXXVI (Comfortably in the top 2)
If MackAttack loses, that’s it. Season over. Mad Monday bookings confirmed.
But if Travis can pull off the upset, MackAttack moves to 40 points and things get very interesting.
That 99.8% could become extremely valuable.
It’s already better than Dancing Dongas and within striking distance of several teams currently sitting inside the eight.
Maaz Rovers and Thrillthorpedos – sitting pretty.
Matt and Magic are sitting relatively comfortably in 4th and 5th, both on 40 points and with excellent percentages.
Maaz Rovers have 101.5%.
Thrillthorpedos have 101.1%.
Both have opponents outside finals contention.
The instructions are therefore straightforward: Win. Do that and you’re on 44 points and safely playing finals.
Lose? Then things become unnecessarily entertaining for everyone else.
A loss leaves either team on 40 and opens the door for MackAttack and/or Dancing Dongas.
Who controls their own destiny?
For Maaz Rovers, Thrillthorpedos, LeGoat, Back-seat Lions and Winterblues, it is beautifully simple: Win and you’re in. No relying on another coach.
For MackAttack and Dancing Dongas, the equation is different.
They must win and then hope somebody currently inside the eight slips up.
MackAttack probably has the stronger hand because of that 99.8%, while Dancing Dongas at 98.5% may need both the right results and a healthy winning margin.
Who has trades left?
Of course, all this ladder analysis assumes everyone can actually field the team they want.
At this stage of the season, the most valuable number might not be your percentage.
It might be the little number sitting next to Trades Remaining.
For the teams fighting for their finals lives, there probably isn’t much point dying with trades in the bank. If one move can turn a donut into a premium, cover an injury or give you the edge in a must-win matchup, then this might be the week to pull the trigger.
But what about the teams who are already safe? Do you burn one of your last trades to make absolutely sure you get there? Or do you keep some ammunition for finals?
Good luck deciding.