Floors & Ceilings, Basements & Roofs
Terms to simply and quickly describe how a player is priced v their range of likely averages.
Basement priced: A player who is going to average far over what they are priced to average. Or putting it another way, someone who’s worst case average is better than what they are priced to average. Applies to pretty much all cows, which is why they are cows!
Floor Priced: A player who is unlikely to average significantly lower than what they are priced to average and who has a significant chance of averaging much higher than where they are priced.
Accurately priced: A player who is likely to perform at about the same level as what they are priced to average. There are players who are more accurately priced than anything else but still have enough upside or downside to be worth noting. I have started thinking of those guys as accurately priced with some upside or accurately priced with some downside. Boring but works.
Ceiling Priced: A player who is unlikely to average significantly higher than what they are priced to average and who has a significant chance of averaging much lower than where they are priced.
Roof Priced: A player who is so far over what he could reasonably do that his best case is below what he is priced to average.
A few examples for this year. Just my own guesses of course. Also, not exactly hidden gems, these are fairly clear and well known. All assume not getting hurt and playing a decent amount, health risk is a different thing.
Basement priced: Elliot Yeo, Rowan Marshall, & Jacob Hopper – It is pretty hard to see any of these guys not performing above their price. So, they are all very highly owned. Anyone you think is basement priced you should own. Well, anyone who is a possible keeper that is. Can’t have all the cows; those can be basement priced and still not be worth owning if they don’t have enough upside.
Floor Priced: Jack Steele, Tim Taranto, & Jordan Ridley. – I think they easy way to tell a Basement from a floor player is “Has to do better” v “Well, won’t do worse.” Ridley, for example, it is just hard to see him averaging more than a point or two less than the 91.6 he is priced at. But it is also not hard to see him averaging 92 again. Definitely has an upside, probably does. But, not certain. Same with Steel and Taranto. Which of these guy you take depends on who you think has the most chance to score above their price.
Accurately priced with some downside:
Accurately priced: Max Gawn – Grundy could take points from him and he does worse, or he could bounce back and do better.
Accurately priced with some upside: Marcus Bontempelli – Certainly could do a bit worse or stay the same, but, he could also be the highest scoring player this year and go up by a good chunk. Which could also be said for Josh Dunkley.
Ceiling Priced: Jack Sinclair & Rory Laird. Could do as well or smidge better, but odds are they regress to the mean some and finish a bit lower or even a lot lower. A lot of the players who finished in the top few of their position fit this category.
Roof Priced: …..(crickets) Huh, I don’t think there is anyone this year who looks certain to drop with little chance of even maintaing their average, at least from the players that people are seriously considering. Past examples, include Max Gawn in 2021 when he was priced to average 139.9 and went 19.1 lower. Also Jake Lloyd in 2021 when he was priced at 122.2 then went for 14.4 lower. They wayback machine also has Todd Goldstein in 2016 when he was priced at 128.8 and went for 20.7 lower. All of these were pretty darn obvious, and yet a lot of people got them because “they were locking in the best player/best player at their position in in the comp.” Which they were not, because regression to the mean and lightning not striking in the same place, etc. The closest I can think of offhand is Tex Walker, who is a terrible pick because of age and beer trucks but I can’t really say he is certain to do worse.
So, do we just avoid anyone not floor priced or at least accurately with some upside?
Because the very best players are often worth getting even if they drop off 5 points. If I take Laird and he drops off by 5 points and averages 122.8, I’m still happy with that pick. Captain’s are super valuable. If you captain someone, they are effectively priced at half their average. If you captain them a third of the time they are still at a big discount. So, if you have three good captain candidates, then they are all worth a premium.
So why not get the three top priced players?
Because they are very unlikely to be the three top players this year. You want to get at least three payer who you think will be in the top this year, who may well not be the top from last year. That is why The Bont, who has the 6th best midfield average last year, is so popular. He has real upside and even staying the same he is valuable and a captain option.
Should we still get all the basement and floor priced guys?
Not all. If someone has a floor that is too low to be worth owning, then they are pretty risky still. If, for example, Taranto once again disappoints, his owner have a forward averaging 91.4. That’s not very exciting, but it is not a disaster. Maybe top 10ish? That’s ok if disappointing. But if you take Ridley and he stays at 91.6 as a defender, that’s rough. You would want to be confident he will do at least 5 points better, making him Basement priced not floor priced. Or take hunter Clark, who may be basement priced at 57.3, but if he goes for 20 more that’s not close to good enough. I happen to like him, but never even considered him this year.
What about other years?
Let’s not talk about other years….
Anyways, the whole Basement – Ceiling and in between stuff is, I think, useful, but needs to be used in the context of each player’s situation.
Thanks for reading!
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