Hi Everybody!
Looks like it is team reveal day! My current team has been stable for days, which is hopefully a good sign. I’m sure forced changes could happen, and I hope to be ready, but until and if that happens, it might actually be set. We shall see.
I’m going to go through how I got to where I am rather than just list players. So, as per the Rules of Cow-qusition, I started with all the good cows. Or rather all the cows I could find that seemed worth having, which is perhaps the same thing.
(You can right click and open the image in a new tab to see an embiggened version)
Ok, I admit that the two cows in defense are not really that good, but more the best available. But since we have to have two, I have the best available two. Also per the rules of Cow-qusition, there are two viable ruck cows, and so I have them both. I’m just not sure Hunter is really viable, although he may be. If he was, I think that three ruck cows might be more risk than I can handle, but two I am fine with. Flynn does look like the GWS #1 ruck after all. The mid and forward cows are all very normal and I do not think they need explanation. Having Fullarton could help if I need to move a ruck cow for some reason, but he is there for money making potential.
Next would be the captain, and since I am not planning a perma-loophole I am going with Max Gawn. He is, I suspect, overpriced but I think he’ll be the or at worst one of the highest scoring players, especially for the first 4-5 week of the season.
With thirteen cows and one captain, that leaves sixteen slots . I have one keeper so far, and need twelve more. That means I have four slots for non-keepers. Since I am out of good cows, I look for cow-like-objects. Since I want the five remaining midfield spots for midfield keepers, I won’t take any there. No open ruck spots. It turns out there are four cow-like-objects I like, two each in defense and forward. So, adding them in.
That leaves me with twelve keeper slots and just $6,475,000 to fill them. That’s $539,583 each. That’s not a lot. Remembering these are players I hope to never spend a trade on, I look for floor priced players, especially ones who have a high upside. This is where the list of interesting players I have been keeping comes in. I take guys from that list, and I end up with four guys who are low priced but good upside, four who are top end premos with upside and four lower end premos with upside.
I have $75,200 left, which I can’t see a way to use, now, but I am sure will be useful after the Great Defenestration.
The what?
That’s when teams drop and all our plans go out the window.
Am I happy with all the players? Well, I think I have as good cows as are available, So happy in that way at least. Happy with Gawn as Captain? Yes. Happy with the cow-like-objects? Mixed. Ziebel a lot, I am ok with Young and Clark, them being the best of what is available and Daniher. Well, to repeat myself, the sword of Daniher is hanging over my head. I know he is a risk worth taking and I accept that risk, but, I’m not thrilled, you know? For the keepers, yeah I think so. My only real risk to miss games is De Goey, who I again think is worth the risk.
Is there anyone who I want to have but left out? Clayton Oliver for sure. I expect him to have a good season but I think he will go up in price less than The Bont, and he did not have a pre-season, so in the end I took Bontempelli instead. The other one is Ridley, who I think will do well, but I prefer Daniel and Laird to him, so while I like him fine, he didn’t fit. Cripps, but I decided on Walsh instead. Not down on Cripps, up on Walsh. Swapping Rowell for Cripps makes my R13 bye issue even worse and I like Rowell.
Any obvious issues? I have as many round 13 bye keepers as I can handle already, so that will be something to watch over the season. Makes bringing in Oliver just fine but the Riddler may have to wait until R14 to come in.
Anything I like? Well, for once, I don’t think any of these guys fall into “What are you thinking, you are clearly mad” territory. Some are less owned but none of them are left field picks. (I don’t seek those out but I don’t shy away from them either.) I think the least owned player on my team is Walsh.
Any noticeable risks? Well, Meek could lose his job and turn into an R3 loophole, but I feel like he will end up lasting. Gawn having a bad game before I have a loophole available. Really un or semi expected job losses from the cows and cow-like objects. Pretty much the same as most people. Oh, and Rowell, but I’m in the same boat as a lot of people there. Willing to take that risk.
Thanks for reading!
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I really like the thought that you give your teams, but not having top scoring players on purpose is equally as detrimental to not having every good rookie no cap
Thank you, and while I don’t have that may of last season’s top scorers, just Gawn, Bont, Macrae and Merrett, I am trying to have some of this upcoming season’s top scorers.
Love the way you’ve laid all of this out and explained it. But I must say, you can’t go into the season with this team if you want to be competitive. Too many gambles and not enough genuine top-end premium scoring.
Interesting team FD.
Speculation the Bont will play more Fwd in the Martin game style has me wondering whether 3 Dogs in your team is genius or madness.
De Geoy before Butters?
Short before Stewart?
DEF: Laird, Daniel, L Mcdonald, T Stewart, Bro Smith, J Clark (Highmore, Kosci)
MID: Oliver, Macrae, Dangerield, Merrett, Fyfe, Campbell, Powell, Gulden (Downie, Mcneil, Scott)
Ruck: Gawn, Flynn (Meek)
FWD: Dusty, De Goey, Zieball, Daniher, Warner, Rowe (Brockman, Chugg)
PLEASE GIVE SOME HELP
Not the place there are other threads for that.
FD Wish i didn’t have to say this to such an ikon but that team is a shocker Now who am i giving my opinion to your good self but it lacks top range points scoring prems and is full of wannabe prems. As i said only my opinion and shooting BAMBI is not my form my opologies FD
Maybe not a conventional cookie cutter side but hardly a shocker. Value premiums not all priced at their maximum. No onfield rookies in defence. Only a couple of speculatory PODs. Mostly these are all popular picks.
Excellent summary. The combination of players is unusual, for reason I have already gone on about at length already, but the players are fairly standard.
I like hearing everybody’s opinions! If the guys who scored top last time are ceiling priced, I will bring them in later if they still are scoring well. I’m specifically targeting floor priced players, who are more likely to rise. Not all will, but a lot will, for more total points (In theory)
Can’t really argue with the reasoning, but I guess my concern with ‘bring them in later’, is you’ve only left:
2 spots for either Lloyd, Stewart, Ryan, Whitfield & Ridley.
3 spots for Neale, Oliver, Steele, Petracca, Mitchell, Fyfe, Kelly, Crouch & Treloar.
3 spots for Danger, Sidebottom, Marshall, Dustin & Zorko.
And that doesn’t take into account any breakouts or bolters like Mills, Brayshaw or Butters.
I think people sometimes get caught splitting hairs between Ridley or Daniel, who are likely to average within a couple of points of each other.
But if you end up missing Zorko at D6 averaging 105, because Philips is plodding along at 90, that’s a problem, especially when you have 5, and possibly 6 in your team.
Different perspectives are what make SC so challenging – I hope all the 50/50 picks smash it for you FD!
Great feedback and questions! Deserves some proper answering
There are more then 6 defenders I like, so can’t ever get all of them. And a lot are going to end up very similar as you said. Same for most lines. So Lloyd and one of Stewart or Ridley is fine to me, if the guys I have are also scoring about the same level. Who I can get cheap when will end up being what matters
I also don’t want a lot of the guys you listed, so to me less of a squeeze.
3 spots for Neale, Oliver, and one of Steele, Petracca, Mitchell,
3 spots for Danger, Marshall, Dustin.
I also don’t think any of them are likely to rise a lot in price, so easier to get later than some of the ones I have who I think will rise in price and thus be hard to get later.
Since I think Zorko is on a downhill, lets say Dusty, who I think is a 100 type still. If I pay for 100 average and get that, am I really better off than if I pay for a 75 average and get 90, as long as I use the cash somewhere else? There is a difference of $139,000 between their prices, which is about 26 points of money to go somewhere else. 26+90 = 116 which is better than 100.
So, I am sort of putting my money (team) where my mouth is and trying to make the best possible use of cash for points/$. I think I have something good for that at season start. How well I can keep it up is a good question. I am starting with cows and cash generation, so if I do ok there and add it to better money use wouldn’t that be better? In theory it is, and I am aware of not needing too many upgrades. But, if enough things go wrong I’ll be hurting. But not too badly I hope. Maybe I am more open to the risk, or at least perceived risk, of a rough start, in order to try and get a good start?
Thanks again for the feedback and making me think about those things.
Love your work FD.
Like you, I am going to run with rookie rucks at R2 & R3 and Fullarton in my fwd line. Flynn is in (like Flynn) due to his better JS, so I need to decide between Meek or Hunter.
Clearly you have gone with Meek which suggests you think his scoring potential and/or his JS is better than Hunter. Do you think that Treacy’s suspension works in Meeks favour longer term?
As for a Hunter, Marshall is minimum 2-4 weeks away and very unclear on Ryder.
So given scoring potential and risky JS, who do we think earns more money?
TU Meek
TD Hunter
Treacy’s suspension?
Yep, 3 weeks for a rough tackle in a practice match Freo are appealing.
Treacy was suspended for 3 weeks, or 2 with an early guilty plea by the WAFL Match Review Panel after a tackle in a practice match.
Fremantle have appealed.
Suspended but awaiting appeal. might be gone for three, which certainly makes Meek a lot erm… less Meek?
Father, Can Meek still inherit the earth if he gets to play at least 4 weeks?
I hope so. I’m waffling some but at the moment on Meek still
Hi FD
Love the construction process. A little worried about the stretch of H Clark, DeGoey and Phillips all being keepers. Such are the inflated prices this year, that this is our dilemma.
On your cow-like objects, personally not sure on B Scott. Have gone Bruhn. My doubts on Scott are based on the structure of the Dogs backline. From the mock teams posted, it would appear that only Keath and Gardner have the height. So they will be short against a 3 tall forward line. Hence I see Wood (or Cordy, if Wood is not fit) holding that spot. Gone H Jones instead of Meek, but they neither here or nor there. The only other difference is that I counted Dow as a mid pricer, and have included Cahill as a cow-like object.
What that might do for your team is to take DeGoey out, and replace Young with Ridley. You speak about your two big risks being Daniher and DeGoey. Both being on the same line probably makes it 3 times worse.
Good luck with the season FD
De Goey out, and replace Young with Ridley is a great suggestion. It also means I need a new forward or mid, which I’m not sure I see. If I did see one I’d have them. But, I’m gonna keep my eyes open, because I like Riddler more than De Goey. Very much appreciate the idea.
Can’t sell you on Cahill?
Sorry, but I am not a fan of Cahill. I’ll look again to be sure though.
Impey or Bruhn. After that, I’m empty!
Yeah, I’m not keen on them. I had Impey for a while but he was one who the whole “I knew he was Impey when I took him:” thing had me take him out. He might work fine but I don’t feel good about him. Bruhn is a expensive GWS rookie and if I remember right didn’t do much other than goals, which won’t be common in the real season. Plus, I have little faith in a GWS cow playing. But, I still like that idea and am going to think about it!
Maybe McNeil….
Ok. How about move Clark in the mids. Move Campbell forward instead of DeGoey and put Ridley in defence.
I’d be about $37,000 short of the funds for that.
Warner down to a 102k player would meet that criteria, and he’s no certainty to play. You could potentially see the suspension of Treacy as a blessing in disguise, allowing the upgrade to Ridley and a loophole, plus then as a Lobb replacing cash cow when your rookies are starting to get rested and provide you with a loophole.
Another option you could look at is hanging on to Young, but flicking DeGoey out, moving Braeden Campbell forward, and maybe or maybe not Jordan Clark to Mids, and putting in either a midfielder or a defender that way. This gives you options all over the field.
Gives you $435.2k+$75.2k =$510,400
Defender options include May, Docherty, Houston, Duggan and of course Williams if you want a donut for round 1.
Mid options include Simpkin, Bailey Smith and Taranto.
Or you could go straight swaps for De Goey with Butters, Bolton, Heeney or if the NDH* rule allows you to stretch Toby Greene. I hope for great things out of Butters this year and believe he is an earnest chance of a top 10 forward spot.
All of these look like better options than De Goey to me, although certainly Toby Greene might push the no blasphemy boundary a bit.
I suspect De Goey will probably do that to you anyway.
* No D*** Heads.
I really like this side. Very gutsy approach. But if all your bargain potential premos work out you’ll be already ahead of the pack. I really hope Flynn works out for u.
Thank you!
I have concerns about spending so much on doggies in the middle. With Treloar added to the mix and coming off artificially inflated scores/prices surely those 600k+ guys can’t increase their output?
I think that Dogs will score more points and win more games, so the pie being sliced up will be bigger I don’t think top players will lose out, although their middle players might. I could be wrong, but having looked at a lot of careers, players seem to suffer from their role changing but not so much from other players being added. Nott that I looked at that in detail.
Thanks for the read Father and the way you have laid it out and the thought processes! Well considered …
All I will say is you have some big brass ones and good luck for the season to come!! Refreshing to see some different approaches!
Pound the Priest, once again open. League code 286813.
Meant to put that in the post but forgot! Darn!
Full
I see hunter clarke as a pod. Would love to hear some thoughts on Dan Houston and his potential output this season as far as another pod goes.
I like the side FD.
rock solid reasoning behind the selections I love the way it’s all come together. Making me really think twice about a few selections in my side. I’m not sold on GAWNDY but too scared of running a rookie R2 I hope this works out for you! And hunter Clarke has been in and out of my side the past fortnight but such an awkward price. At that price I assume your banking on him being a keeper? What do you expect him too AVG for the season? Cheers FD
What this side boils down to is dropping a top line ruckman in order to replace the onfield defensive rookies with budget mid pricers, and get a top end mid pricer in the forward line.
The hope then is that the potential loss of 80pts on field in the ruck (and the loss of a captain option) is offset by the difference between three rookies and three midpricers elsewhere.
Plus the obvious challenge in bringing in a possibly rampant Grundy at some stage.
Nothing inherently wrong with it, it’s just a roll of the dice.
Well, right now from AAMI it seems ruck scores will be down from their inflated short game 2020 scoring and probably even further down than that.
Meanwhile Halfback and Kick in type roles will have sizable scoring boosts.
It’s certainly risky, but since Champion Data are so determined to tweak/cheat the rules each year, if they’re going to telegraph that cheating so blatantly it makes it sensible to follow the points when the opportunity arises.
Makes me wonder if starting with neither Gawn nor Grundy is viable.
O’Brien and NicNat could be an solid pairing, maybe McEvoy or Witts as a slightly cheaper alternative to one of them.
ROB + McEvoy saves almost $400k compared to Grawndy. That’s a straight rookie-to-premo swap on another line.
Consider this: The BEST scoring ruck in AAMI was Witts.
It appears rucks will have to rest forward or rest back on the field due to the game’s restriction on rotations.
Beck will probably pay more unless the ruck scores a bag of goals.
Gawn is ok as a forward. Not great, but he is a decently good kick. Plus he has that monster starting matchup.
MacEvoy at least seems competent as a big defender.
Where do we see players like Grundy and Reilly O Brien when they are rested? Taking bench rotations off midfielders?
It’s gonna be interesting.
For me, yes, Grundy is the better midfielder, and maybe Gawn is overpriced based on his 140 ppg last season. But I don’t see Grundy being the big winner out of the top 2 rucks with those other changes.
For me, I’d keep one of the two, and of those it would be Gawn.
Disclosure I still have Grawndy at this stage but am really seriously considering just going with Gawn to get the Seagull in.
nice FD. I love the critical thinking, definitely not the cookie cutter 2021 team!
I’m backing Draper at R2 for the same reason people were pushing Pruess in the pre-season, but I’m not sure with Gawn v Grundy. I have Gawn currently because of his first 5 or so rounds, but I have a feeling Grundy will overtake him on price before I can move Draper on – which I see as a mid-late season move.
Can I ask what your thoughts were on arriving on Gawn as the choice of R1?
See comment above.
Good points mate. I was tossing up whether Grundy’s around the ground work would be in his favour vs Gawn, but he’ll probably be rotated with Cameron up front, who is likely to take more ruck minutes from Grundy than Melbourne’s second ruck would from Gawn.
Is butters a better selection than Jordan de goey for F2? De goey’s durability is a concern and no d**K head policy has to come into play FD?
Value wise I’m not sure. But health wise yes, and Butters is not a flog. So, yeah, good idea, thank you.
I’m thinking Dow can go down to Downie, and the De Goey goes to either Ridley or Butters.
There’s so many reasons to not start DE Goey.
He doesn’t have the tank to play midfield. He is a flog and may finish the year in Jail.
Add to this his injury history and awkward price.
He could just be the worst SC selection over 10% ownership. Please reconsider.
I have, see the post right above. Just too much risk, as you pointed out. I’m thinking Butters, because I just do not like have five defender spots already taken. Actually made that move and swapped Dow for Downie, which adds a lot of cash, so I am going back over who I have knowing that. I may just keep it in case of emergency, which is more likely this season.
Cheers FD. I’m going H Young and Clark as my D4-5. This leaves just one rookie on field in Defence. This gives me 5 keepers in the mids G&G and Dunkley and Martin Forward.
I know you looking at Meek/ Flynn R2/3 but after starting Naismith at R2last year I just can’t do it. Meek s JS is shakey at best. If Flynn starts badly. (Not unlikely with his start) they may bring in Mummy to give him some support. Thing could go tits up very fast.
As you have stated all preseason we need value priced players. When looking at Grundys stats I see a little above floor priced player with great upside . He is also a Captain option most weeks. I think he is a lock on his own merit.
This may slightly negatively affect my cash making ability. Yet I at least sleep better knowing I have 2 rucks playing every week.
Thanks for all your great content as always.
Good luck whatever way you go.
Most importantly, I believe you have the correct rookies who can score and have JS.
Apparently Turner not named for RD1 so I have gone with Jones.
Running the same rookies except I have the Loop in DEF.
Good Luck.