When I went to actually make my team this season, I stated off filling up with the good cows, per rule #1 of the Rules of Cowquisition. “Start the season with as many good cows as you can get, up to where you have undesired left-over money.” Turns out there are a lot of good cows, or at least pretty good cows and I ran right into the undesired left-over money thing. (Cows are anyone you are planning use have make $150,000 or more, not just rookies) That meant being more selective on cows, and being able to drop the ones I feel are in some way dodgy. It also meant needing to be very selective on the few Keepers/Guns I would need to make sure I didn’t have undesired left-over money.
So, no rucking cows, as usual. Marshall of course, and after a lot of thought Darcy. I think Rucks have been talked to death and I don’t have anything to say about them not already said.
Dunkley is super obviously a good pick, even more than last season, so he went next and I did forwards. Taranto is also obvious and while I am not a fan of his, he is for sure floor priced and going to get proper mid time also for sure. As sure as such things go at least. Cogniglio is also set for full time inside mid this year, and as I recall he has always done well when playing there and GWS have an easy start, so, him as well at a probably slight underprice. Gulden has too much of an upside to ignore, at least for me. Not sure about the rest, so going to the cows, only Ziebell and Greene are forward only on my “yes” list, so in they go, and now I have two spots open for possible DDP guys.
Onto the mids! Cows galore! Davey, Baker, Phillips, MacKenzie, Ashcroft, Worpel, Callaghan, Flanders, Bruhn, Hopper, and Setterfield. That’s…..eleven. Without Fyfe, who’s body and role both worry me. Both Davies and Bruhn go into the forward line, filling that up, meaning I now have space for two mids. I want three keeper mids, so one more must go. Stupid Sexy Flanders goes out and now I can fit three mids. No way I don’t take The Bont, for the same reasons so many others are. That leaves two spots. Lots of thinking happens. I suspect Laird is going to regress some. I also expect Oliver to drop some because of Melbourne’s new spread the wealth and starting him in defense sometimes plan. Keeping him fresh for the post season is fine for them but not fine for his SC score. If removing Dunkley from the Dogs helps the Bont, then could well hurt Neale. I suspect he has more downside than upside. Gets down to Macrae. Who, I think is priced at the lower end of his range, and who will also benefit from no Dunkley. And, there is nobody cheaper and still a proven premo I feel good about. I worry about not being able to loop them and the loss of a captain option, but put him in anyways. The last spot goes to not yet proven premo Tom Green, who is someone else we all know about.
Defense, I have to take one keeper or have extra cash, and Docherty is pretty easy. For one thing, captain option! At least VC if needed, to go with Dunks and Bont. I think he has upside and, really, is there anyone else in defense close to as solid an option? And now things get hard, because there are not actually eight defenders I want. There are certainly a few that I’d be ok with and not stress, like Dawson. Well, ok just Dawson. Have some concerns about the guys more expensive than Doch. Good thing I only need one defender keeper, because I am not thrilled with the rest. Yeo next, then Bowes, Liam Jones, Crozier, Ginbey, then Constable and Cowan, who has been named.
Ends up looking like this:
So, time for questions and comments from the Cow Talk Advisory panel, aka my imaginary interlocutor and the Hamster.
You only have $6,200 left, that is way little and I know way little!
Yeah, I am not fond of that. But, I would rather have less cash and players I want.
What do we do if someone spuds up and corrections are needed?
Downgrade. There are a lot of downgrade options available. Only Cowan could be a challenge and if he loses his job early I may just wait him out. Or go down to Cincotta.
You have only 10 keepers.
Well, ten known keepers. Yeo and Bowes maybe, Setterfield/Hopper/Worpel maybe, Ziebell and Bruhn maybe.
How will you get to full premo?
Sigh. I never get to full premo. But, maybe this year. One thing about the guys who start at $300k and up, is once they have made their money you can one up and one down them and end up with an actual premium. Two guys starting at 310k up just 120k to 430k times two is 860k – 123k = 737k buys one mid premo.
Guys who start at 220k, they go up to 370k, two of them are worth 740k, minus 123k is 617k = premium defender.
You are starting Jack Bowes. You know, the guy who didn’t play in the last practice match, and therefore had the dreaded interrupted pre-season? Which means we do not pick them….?
Yeah…I know. I feel like he did not come over for nothing.
He sort of did.
Ok yes, but not like that, I meant he is there to play. I’m gonna get him and keep him and hope to not suffer too much if he is delayed.
So, even if he is not named round one?
Possibly, depending on the news. But looks like he will play.
What if he doesn’t?
Then he gets downgraded to one of the many defender rookies I am not fond of but are in a lot of teams. Maybe. Maybe I hold him and use him as a loophole for Cowan and Constable.
So you like the guy.
And good reason?
No. Just my guts, and knowing I’ll froth at the mouth if I don’t take him and he does what I think he can.
Ok then, moving on!
How about Jones and Crozier?
I think they will both do their jobs, both for the Dogs and for us.
Still, maybe a little thin down back?
Definitely maybe a little thin down back. Thing is, those are the guys I like best. I’m going with them. Also, Ziebell will get Fwd/Def in the first set of position changes, which will probably come in handy.
But there are so many other defender rookies? You do not like them?
Nope. They all have job security issues. I don’t like guys who play one to four games and get dropped for a while. Wilmot, McKenna, and Chesser all have that feel to them. Plus sub risk.
Cowan does not have that feel?
Cowan has it less and has been named and is cheapest. If there was one more guy I felt I could count on down back I would have him in. Cowan is who I settled on when i saw I would be stuck with one guy I was nervous about.
I think he will be poor at making money, to the point I would rather risk someone much cheaper. But if I need to downgrade, he might be who I go to. Have to see.
So, just gonna go with it? No way to swap a forward to a defender?
Lots of ways, if i take a defender I do not want, like Ridley. I think a lot of people have him because they want/need to keepers in defense, and he is the best looking and might be underpriced and might have a better role and might might might. The forwards I would have to get rid of to get him are all far better.
I like Cogs better. Rozee is still a breakout candidate, while Cogs we know is the real deal, and starts with an easy draw. Maybe Rozee does well, but maybe not. He had some really poor games last year. I get why people are taking him but he’s not in my top four forwards, and I will live if he does well.
But we have Ziebelll?
Yeah. He has his old role back. I think he will not score as well as in 2021, by like 15 points maybe. Which still is about 93, which is probably enough to earn him $130k, maybe more if he spikes at the right time. I will be just fine and happy getting 90-95s from a cheap forward for a while.
Captain options? Both Bont and Macrae are a thing. Can’t loop guys on the same team.
Docherty, Bont, Darcy, Marshall, Dunkely. Maybe Green if he does break out. Even Cogs against the right opponent.
Lots of mid pricers?
No, lots of cows with a higher starting cost.
Who might be keepers?
Maybe if I get lucky, but I’ll be ok if they make $130k each. I’d like more, but I will take that, along with all the points. Sweet, sweet, points. Did you notice my cheapest guy on field is $171,300?
How about I am fielding just two first year players? (Pretty sure, at least….)
I think those are good things.
If the SC gods give us a lot of good but expensive cows, what do we say?
Hey! My league! The Pumpkin Seed Cup: 986137
Thank for reading!
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17 thoughts on “Team Reveal – Father Dougal”
FD, insightful and an enjoyable read. In particular liked your Cogs V Rozee take. Been flip flop those 2 for weeks.
Liam Henry might be a better pick up back than crozier?
I’m a bombers supporter and Setterfield – just can’t do it.
Bont or macrae not both to start, I like Mills or Brayshaw.
Worpel I can’t do bring Bruhn into the middle and put in McLean , Fyfe may go well early?
Live your work as always!!!
Hey mate why don’t u think setterfield can do it. What dont u like about him
I’m keen to hear some thoughts on Setterfield as well. Has a good scoring history when given the opportunity but where does he fit with Zerrett, Parish, Shiel, Caldwell and Perkins? Surely he’s behind the first 3, and probably Caldwell as well.
I barrack 4 the blues and he’s a spud u will be cursing him every 2nd week Mark my words
Pretty much like most Carlton supporters already know, goes missing , is lazy and not cut out for a on ball roll.
I of course hope I’m very very wrong but I don’t rekon I am
Liam Henry is a Mid/Fwd, so wont;t work so well down back!.
Lol so he is!
Thanks again for a great explanation and write up!
I’ve joined the Pumpkin seed cup
That is a very interesting side father alot of ‘ midprice cows’ I wish I could start this many but I’m worried too many would not work out for me and I’d find myself blowing trades.
How do you tend to finish up in your rank overall each year and fare in leagues?
Oh dang, I forgot to include my annual warning that I am, in fact, terrible at AFL Supercoach and my posts are worth every penny you pay for them, unless you are somehow paying in which case less than that.
Historically I seem to finish between 3-10K. I win a league or two most years.
For some reason I have done well in the tech league last few years.
This year I’m just doing what i want to without worrying about anything else. I have had little time to write or research so Just getting in as much value as I can and hoping it works out. Believe it or not, I am trying not be too clever and going all in on a simple strategy.
Great write up FD.
Plenty of contributors have said of these awkward mid priced cows, “that you can’t have them all”.
Turns out you are showing us maybe you can with a clear plan to do so.
Gives me plenty to think about…
– Law of averages – by running a portfolio of mid priced cows you moderate your risk (should have plenty of wins that exceed a dud outcome or two)
– Balls of steel – if a few dominoes fail to get game time or get sub, it could be catch up Trade hell
PS. After your floor, ceiling, etc article the other day, I thought Steele would be locked in???
Thank you. I have never been much for accepting conventional wisdom without question.
If I was going with one more mid premo Steele would be the leading candidate. Going with just two, I prefer Jack. I worry Steele may average what he did last year again. If he does, I would be sad. If Macrae does I will be ok with that. So, Jack has a lot of upside but I am just not sure how up he will go. Hard to risk when I am only running two big mids.
I thought Rozee would be ahead of Gulden. Was it just a price thing?
Yes. I think Gulden may be pretty discounted and could do a lot better, and he is far cheaper. If Gulden scores say 5 less on average I am ok with that for the cost. I also am not really as much a believer in Rozee as everyone else. I’m not at all saying he won’t so well, just that I am not as confident he will. I think if I was set that Rozee was for sure going to up his average by 15 points I’d find room for him. If Gulden ends up with a meh average, we do know he can have that one big score that will shoot his price up……
Fair enough. Just think everyone is jumping on the Gulden 1 practice game* bandwagon. Not a cow and not a keeper.
* Opposition made a total of 21 tackles and Mills didn’t play.
Btw. I love the way your hamster thinks, clearly not a regular hamster