The Fallen Premiums – Rd 18, 2022

Written by Abs on July 13 2022

The round kicked off with the Cats dislocating the proverbial thumb of the Dees. Supposedly there was only one journalist in the post game press conference, which is one more person that showed up, in comparison to the Doggies the game prior. The Pies continued their trend of trying to lose games and coming out unfortunate victors. Richmond losing after the siren to the GC reminded us all of something. That’s right, Karmichael Hunt was once an AFL level player (that also kicked the winner against the Tigers 10 years prior). Flagmantle is back baby, also worth noting, Port and GWS played a game this weekend? The Dons showed up large, and one Zachery Merrett continues to be a massive sliding doors moment over his popular teammate Darcy Parish. Mitch Lewis deserves to be uttered in the same breath as Hudson, Dunstall, Brereton, Roughy and Buddy (I’m not jumping the gun…). Eagles and Blues? Great statement win for the Blues (just pretend the first half didn’t happen Blue fans) however, Cripps continues to give me 2021 PTSD, and now with dwindling trades, I’m once again stuck with him… so with the completely true-to-life round coverage out of the way, let’s get to The Fallen Premiums – Round 18.

That 36 point net-gain on the majority makes up for bringing Hall in last week yeah?!?


Jack Crisp (Col, 489.8k, (-$81.2k), 100.4 AVG, 129 BE) with trades dwindling, Jack Crisp for anyone in need of a defensive-premium offers something that most players don’t. A guarantee to finish the season off unscathed. 179 consecutive games in a sport as taxing as Aussie Rules is astonishing. Crisp has largely been consistent this season, however, a three round average of 78.7 points is largely concerning. Has a game against the Crows (121 points earlier in the season), so I’m expecting a bounce-back, and hopefully he can find his rhythm and lock-in an AA spot.

Backing it up….
Dayne Zorko, 392k, 169 BE
Jordan Dawson, 624k, 139 BE
Hayden Young, 484k, 135 BE
Dan Houston, 515k3, 134 BE
Adam Saad, 546k, 130 BE


Only Zach Merrett can make me happy with a Dons win. Don’t tell the missus thats the reason….

Zachery Merrett (ESS, 577.2k, (-$48.5k), 109.8 AVG, 49 BE) back to his elite-ball-use ways, getting right up there in price, but with the turnaround in the Bombers form, I truly believe Merrett is still a serious option for those lucky enough to luxury trade. 132.7 point three round average, two consecutive 140’s against quality teams in the Lions and Swans, and he’s averaging 115.8 points since his bye. Gold Coast, Pies, North, GWS, Port, and the Tigers left for the Dons. As a Merrett optimist, I can see a comfortable 115-odd average to finish the year off.

Callum Mills (SYD, 575.3k, (-$36.8k), 119.2 AVG, 112 BE) after two down games, Mills bounced back with a strong 138 points as the Swans pounced the Dogs. Mills owners should be aware of his annoying 80-odd floor, but at the same time, licking their chops at his monstrous ceiling. Swans have a very alluring fixture-run to finish off the year, with the likes of North, Adelaide, and a Pies team (that allows huge midfield scoring). If you can luxury trade to Mills, I wouldn’t look further.

Limbo Land….
Darcy Parish, 587k, 178 BE *injured*
Jack Macrae, 607k, 149 BE
Sam Walsh, 590k, 140 BE


Sean Darcy (FRE, 558.8k, (-83.8k), 104.9 AVG, 90 BE) the Darcy and Gawn ping-ponging of the ruck-section is looking to be back on the cards. Darcy has been averaging 117.3 points since his bye. Some tough ruck battles to come, but like I’ve said in the past, Darcy doesn’t get effected much by a strong battle, can happily churn out a 130+ against anyone (and 111 points against the restrictive Ryder & Marshall combo this past weekend shows it). I’ve opted for Gawn (who I’ll get to once he drops in price next week), but Darcy if he can finish the year off on the right trajectory can easily be #1 in points.

Limbo Land….
Max Gawn, 614k, 189 BE
Toby Nankervis, 547k, 186 BE
Jarrod Witts, 560k, 146 BE
Nic Naitanui, 559k, 138 BE


Just drive Homer…

Isaac Heeney (SYD, 440.9k, (-$13.6k), 98 AVG, 77 BE) when it comes to value/risk/reward, there’s no one better to mention than notorious burn-man, and borderline superstar Isaac Heeney. Wasn’t much of a game on Friday night, however like I mentioned with Mills, the Swans have an easy fixture run to close the year out. There’s definitely a few big Heeney scores to come, even a cheeky C option against North @MARVEL. Just be wary of the odd stinker as well. If you’re capable of looping Heeney, he’s suddenly the best player at his price point.

Forward Thinking….
Tom J. Lynch, 408k, 182 BE
Taylor Walker, 479k, 170 BE
Josh Dunkley, 532k, 147 BE
Jade Gresham, 456k, 140 BE
Marcus Bontempelli, 597k, 138 BE
Bailey Smith, 554k, 138 BE
Will Brodie, 553k, 137 BE


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10 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 18, 2022”

  1. Is Heeney a better pick than Taranto at the same price? Or is is better to spend a little more for Duncan?


    1. Heeney has the better fixtures.

      I’d personally have him slightly ahead of Duncan. Stewart due back soon, and Duncan is a risk to get rested as well.


      1. Thanks Abs, good point about Stewart. Duncan’s last two of 121 & 117 have been without Stewart so I assume his inclusion will impact.

        I’m not a fan of Bolton SC wise but what are your thoughts on D. Rioli in the same price range?


        1. I flagged Danny Boy in PS as a potential POD. He’s largely done what I was expecting playing as a flanker.

          Quite like him, would expect a 95-odd average to close the year out. He’s been quite crucial to the Tigers at times.


  2. Thanks for write up ABS
    Was contemplating Jackson to Duncan but that would involve 2 trades .
    2nd option is Jackson straight to Heeney .
    3rd option save trade .
    l have Mcartin as cover but maybe required this week if Oliver misses


  3. Thanks Abs. I brought in Merrett after his bye and his last 3 weeks have been wonderful.

    I’m looking for a budget defender this week so I can swing Crisp to M9, thoughts on these?
    May $402K, avg 90, BE 29
    McDonald $432K, avg 90, BE 51
    Ryan $455K, avg 90, BE 90


    1. I personally have May at D6.

      Was horrible by his standards against the Cats, fumbling, turnovers, HTB. Still managed a 99.

      No reason he can’t finish the year off strong IMO.

      Ryan the other one I’d be looking into due to his massive ceiling.


      1. May is getting a ton of kick ins – which seemed to really help his score on the weekend.

        Like Abs said, he didn’t have a great game on the weekend – but still scored pretty well.

        Ryan should also finish well – and I personally prefer him over McDonald



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