Welcome all to the first official “Fallen Premiums” of 2022. While the season is still young, the typical format of looking at players that have dipped in price and have a low break-even isn’t entirely possible yet. Instead, we can use the same logic and look at who is viable for those that need want to sideways trade this week.
I must not rage trade, I must not rage trade, I must not rage trade…..
Defenders
Shannon Hurn (WCE, 511.1k, (+$16.5k), 110 AVG, 59 BE) a super-POD with less than 1000 owners. Hurn is getting up there in age, but his days of going 150+ aren’t going anywhere. Started the season with an 86 & 88 before dropping 156 points v Freo. Given the amount of time you’d be expecting the ball to be down the defensive end for the Eagles, taking a punt on Hurn isn’t all that ridiculous.
George Hewett (CAR, 453.7k, (+$54.7k), 119.7 AVG, 41 BE) I feel like a broken record mentioning him weekly. However, with Cerra returning, we did get a proper look at Hewett’s role and CBA load. 17 of 26 CBA’s v the Hawks, (second only to Cripps). For non-owners, I wouldn’t say Hewett is a must-have player, but with a low BE, anyone wanting to bring him in should do so this week!
Backing it up….
Jake Lloyd, 587k, 141 BE
Jack Ziebell, 565k, 150 BE
Aaron Hall, 565k, 142 BE
Christian Salem, 515k, 205 BE *injured*
Caleb Daniel, 483k, 149 BE
Midfielders
Tom Green (GWS, 502.4k, (+$72.4k), 139 AVG, 45 BE) another monster score for the GWS bull! (Unfortunately stripped of his ruck duties). Tom Green has truly ascended to another level this season. There are definitely shades of Clayton Oliver with Tom Green’s play this season (and the fact all redheads look the same). I’m also reminiscent of Clarry’s second season where he averaged 112 points. However, in comparison to Oliver, Green has been in the AFL system for an additional season and has 10 extra games under his belt. With the added experience, could Green one-up Clarry and push for a 115-120 AVG?
Patrick Cripps (CAR, 518.8k, (+$64k), 137.7 AVG, 26 BE) I’ll be honest, I didn’t see 119 points coming from the Carlton Captain after bringing him in. Very much looking like a keeper and the definition of a “fallen premium”, it’s hard to believe this is the same player that we saw in 2021. 31 disposals, 12 contested @68% DE. 6 marks, 1 goal, and 11 tackles! Yep, it’s no surprise he’s currently the Brownlow favourite!
Dylan Shiel (ESS, 361.1k, (N/A), 100.5 AVG, 13 BE) two games, two tons for Shiel along with a healthy CBA load, with 19 (61%) v Brisbane in round 1 & 14 (50%) of the CBA’s v Melbourne this past Friday night. With Merrett set to miss at least the next 5-6 weeks, you’d have to think this is a defining opportunity for Shiel to find his footing back in the guts. He definitely took his chance and ran with it against the Dees, being instrumental in the mini-comeback they attempted in the last quarter. If he can stay on the park, it wouldn’t be out of the norm for Shiel to average 100 odd until Merrett returns. Should be able to make some decent money during that time as well (if he can stay on the park…).
Lachie Neale (BRL, 597.2k, (+$54k), 147.7 AVG, 51 BE) I’ll just quickly mention Neale as well. Hurt his ankle early and copped attention from North’s Kayne Turner. Fortunately, Neale gutted out a respectable 105 points. Could be the last time for a while Neale is sub 600k!
Limbo Land….
Jack Macrae, 679k, 168 BE
Touk Miller, 656k, 173 BE
Jack Steele, 647k, 151 BE
Sam Walsh, 637k, 163 BE
Marcus Bontempelli, 621k, 155 BE
Tom Mitchell, 580k, 176 BE
Luke Parker, 576k, 192 BE
Patrick Dangerfield, 554k, 177 BE
Rucks
Tim English (WBD, 521.9k, (+39.3k), 124.7 AVG, 58 BE) a monstrous effort for English on Thursday night, 152 points in a round where not many premiums were cracking 120! 69 ruck contests, 10 hit-outs to advantage, 8 clearances, and a total of 52% of ruck contests won. With Stef Martin yet to return, we don’t have a complete understanding of Tim’s ruck-load. However, with the form he’s currently finding himself in, it’s looking like it won’t affect him too much!
Timberrrr….
Sean Darcy, 643k, 191 BE
Nic Naitanui, 627k, 190 BE
Max Gawn, 616k, 160 BE
Brodie Grundy, 605k, 161 BE
Rowan Marshall, 506k, 175 BE
Forwards
Stephen Coniglio (GWS, $338.5k , (+$77.2k), 109.3 AVG, -48 BE) it’s hard to believe Cogs is only in 75% of teams. If I was a betting man (and fortunately for Crown Casino, I am), I’d chuck an even $100 that even Sleeping Beauty has him at F3 currently. 149 points over the weekend v Gold Coast and looking like the Cogs of old, the only question with Cogs was whether he’d be a keeper. As each week passes by, we’re getting a clearer answer.
Daniel Rioli (RIC, $376.1k, (+$40.1k), 96.3 AVG, 5 BE) when Houli went down with injury late last season, Rioli played off halfback and finished the season with scores of 83, 111, 54, 87, 95 & 77 and an average of 84.5. 20 possessions @100% DE against the Saints, resulting in 107 points. Rioli has the right role and has gone 100+ for 2 weeks in a row now. Could he be a sneaky POD and a keeper at D6/F6?
Forward thinking….
Mitch Duncan, 540k, 159 BE
Jake Stringer, 507k, 150 BE
Tom Hawkins, 492k, 180 BE
Tarryn Thomas, 459k, 174 BE *injured*
Chad Wingard. 438k, 163 BE
Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom
Great work as always Abs. After the last 2 seasons of owning him, Cripps is on my never again list. You’ll find me crying in the corner for the rest of the season.
Thanks Gunner.
Was on my never again list unless he went berserk after those last 2 seasons too. The high ownership, cut-price and performance all forced my hand last week. Still feel so dirty lol
Haha kudos to you for swallowing your pride mate, I’m a stubborn old man these days
Can’t blame the man for trying his best over the last two years considering he was paying with a fractured back.
Fur sure Nateo, bloke is a bull. I would have preferred if he took some time off to get it right though, from a selfish SC perspective Lol
VG…probably in the room down the corridor from me….
Haha with a slab to ease the pain Chameleon
Great read, well done.
At this stage it looks like I’ll be jumping on the Tom Green train.
I’m just gonna say it – I don’t think what Cripps is doing is sustainable. With 6.1 currently, he’s on track for 48 goals this year after only having 73 (at an accuracy rate of below 50%) for his whole career. And when Mitchell/O’Meara put some time into him in the second half his influence was dramatically reduced to virtually only handballs and uncontested short kicks on the wing.
Basically if you don’t already have him I don’t think it’s worth busting your whole team up to bring him in. That Green guy though…
In my opinion Cripps scores are aligned with Carltons form. When inevitably Carlton has a rough patch, Cripps scoring will most likely suffer. He can get tagged out of games, burnt me memorably in finals one year. I think Tom Green/Neale is more of a must have atm
I think most players scores are to an extent aligned with team results/form??
Especially premo players as obviously elite players like Cripps have big influence on results – so as a rule if he plays well team result more likely to be positive…
Don’t see how Cripps is any different to any other player in this sense…
The fact is – Cripps SC scoring is aligned with him being fit and having completed a full pre-season…. Lat two seasons cruelled by injury, this season body is right and he is a Top 10 player in the comp again…
Not rocket science….
You could tell he was playing hurt, especially last year. Plus, he was practically a lone hand in the mids for several years and now that he’s got some better support, he’s been able to work on other aspects of his game – look at his meters gained so far this year compared to previous seasons.
Unless it’s Trav Boak, Port winning or losing, he just keeps chugging out scores like a machine – about the only Port bloke atm who, if anything, has actually lifted his efforts to try to stem the haemorrhage of the rest of the team
Tom Green more a must have than Cripps based on 3 games of data for Green at premo scoring levels……. Mmmmmmmmm…..
Patrick Cripps last quarter stats and Champion Data scoring…..
– 54 points from eight effective disposals and four tackles.
Yep had no influence at all in the last quarter………
Rioli is very tempting for his price at his current output.
TU – rest of season avg 95+
TD – rest of season avg sub 90
TU – dude, it’s sure to be an annoying 90-95 avg
I think he settles in that 90-95 range.
Definitely making improvements in the role and many forget he’s only 24. His decision making, defensive awareness and kick are all still improving as well.
Not a bad pick considering price and DPP eligibility. Could make for a nice D7/F7 if he can’t quite crack it.
Green looks the goods, but there’s still that nagging doubt about Leon. I just do not trust that guy.
There’s also the Round 12 bye to consider – it’s going to ruin some seasons, mark my words…..here’s a team of premiums (or in some cases “premiums”) I’ve cobbled together that will all be missing that week:
Hewett, Short, Whitfield, Ridley, Docherty, Sinclair
Cripps, Steele, Parish, JKelly, Green, Boak, Walsh, Merrett
Marshall, Draper
Butters, Taranto, Dusty, Rioli, Gresham, Coniglio
There’s a lot of very popular options there, with half a dozen players over 25% ownership. It’s definitely something to consider if you’re planning on bringing any of these players in.
Yep, owning GWS players, while knowing Leon Cameron thinks of himself as some sort of mad scientist, makes for an interesting roller coaster.
Bye and upcoming fixtures for GWS and Green both need to be considered! Also the fact @500k he needs to be well an truly a keeper.
I still love the pick, but won’t burn 2 trades bringing him in.
The only enticing one out of that list that I don’t have is Green, however I find it really hard to fit him at this stage. I’d have to downgrade Mills to get him in, but Mills is playing North and West Coast the next 2 rounds which should mean great scoring.
Hewett is one I don’t have, but I’m backing myself in and sticking to my POD in Blakey. Blakey has already gone up 36k in price and taking over more of Dawson’s role. He has also received praise from the coach as well for his performances, which gives me confidence.
John Longmire: “He’s playing both sides of the ball really well, he’s been strong defensively. He’s been able to do that & been able to give us some bounce & run and carry. We’ve been pleased with his consistency so far.”
English may have scored really well, but a lot of that was helped due to Hickey going out early in the 3rd term. His score against the Dees of 123 was also helped due to 8 free kicks, so I keep questioning his true ruck performance.
How he gathers a lot the ball though makes him more of a midfielder. I just keep wondering if Stef Martin returns, how much time forward he would spend?
Great write up Abs! And loving the Simpsons references too.
Green is the one I’m watching closest at this point, primed for a breakout season and clearly has the potential. just wary of improved output from Kelly and Whitfield and the returning Hopper at some point that may hurt his scoring, a lot still to be seen!
Hurn I think is a great pick, but also McGovern for the same reasons, plenty of ball down back for the Eagles.
Rioli is enticing and like you said, great DPP option!
Thanks again mate, lots to consider.
Appreciate it Dane!
Green been on my mind all week thus far. Had a good look this past weekend too.
Upcoming fixtures / as you mentioned, Whitty, Jelly and a returning Hopper / bye structure and of course price all a concern. However I don’t think he’s going to burn people that take the punt.
The good McGovern! Was going to mention him last week actually. Nice PODs those 2 eagle boys.
Really want to do a Boost and Burn 3 trades to Ditch Crisp, Gov + rookie into Green and Rioli.
But man that RD 12 Bye…. Especially with Pruess on the must have list….
Ridley, Short, Hewett, Rioli, Cripps, Green, Butters, Cogs, Pruess + Loophole
Thats a lot of non playing players rd 12.
I gotta say I’m happy with my Pendles pick, his role off half back is really paying dividends. Is priced at around 90 ppg at the minute and is currently running at an 105 ave. In a few weeks time, he’ll be my highest scoring defender.
I agree, Joestar. The reason I picked him at the start was the expectation of that DDP. He’s not setting the world alight yet, but hitting the 105 avg is worth what we are paying
Is it worth considering Rowell to Cripps or Green? I have some concerns about Rowell being unable to capitalise on Miller being tagged.
TU – leave it.
TD – Get on board with either>
I’m still bitter than I started Tom Green last season, but didn’t this season