Harry Sheezel
What’s the damage?
- $590,900
- -$44.7k
- BE 181
- 106, 81, 89
With hindsight, he was clearly not worth starting with price maintenance now out the window. Even a ton against the Swans this week will still see him with a 140~ BE. Giving him a run of tons (which is generous) sees him then bottom out at around 520k~ for over 100k in the red. If he continues to wallow in double digits, the damage will be far worse. There’s no soft kills for him to bounce back against either, with the Roos due a rested Sydney and the red hot Suns over the next two weeks.
What’s the problem?
It appears to be two fold. First, is just simply just Sheezel’s role. It’s non-descript. Predominantly HF and wing starts and then just flogged up and down the ground. Given his extreme work rate and tank, Clarkson seems happy to back him into a dog’s body role and optimize his less talented team mates in more stable ones. He had fourth MID CBAs Rounds 1 and 2 [17] and 10 in Round 3, but a bunch of those were in junk time when North’s younger midfield had lost their legs. It’d be a mischaracterization to say he’s playing MID. He’s coming off sub-optimal starting positions at HF and wing and in general play finding himself on the outside or with the ball pinging over his head. Against the Crows he did move back in the last quarter for 12 touches, a kick in and some pure junk time scoring. That could be transitory as it’s Daniel’s world down there now, although North have historically accommodated several high use HBs.
The next reason for Sheezel’s downturn, and this is key, is North’s play style. If you’ve watched them play at all you’ll have noticed a distinct shift in system and intent. They’ve departed from the high uncontested looping system, which re-building sides often use to retain possession and depressurize the game, and look be trying to do it the hard way: winning clearance and contested ball. That’s not to say they weren’t previously trying to do both of those things but they’ve started well across those fundamentals; ranking 3rd in the competition for center clearances, 10th for contested possession and 1st for disposal efficiency (76.8%). So the directive is clear: win it at the source and win it hard. That’s a stark departure from setting up behind the play and having your MIDs accumulate it in the defensive half.
Those two advents, Sheezel’s non-descript role and North’s actual attempt at playing coal face football, have coalesced to really inhibit him. Now, on top of that he’s had some gross moments in terms of decision making and efficiency, including 31 touches at 68% in Round 1.
What’s the go?
He’s going to have another sharp price decrease and from there bleed out in 5-15k increments (calculated with tons). As for role, North are looking as good as they’ve looked in a while: a valiant loss to the Dogs while also nearly 100, blowing out the Dees by 10 goals and going down honorably interstate against the 2nd placed Crows. No alarm bells for structural changes, although it’s clear they’re not getting the most from Sheezel. That said, LDU, Parker and Powell can only play on ball (recall optimized roles) and Daniel has the rule of the roost down back.
Sheezel is stuck in no man’s land. I’d say the decision has to be made this week as he’ll be taking another massive cash hit. Any time after that and you’re stuck in that early round, corrective mire when you should be gunning for upgrades and shoring up cash gen. Either back in his work rate and eventual and hopeful re-inclusion into the action at HB/OB or part ways with him now while he’s still got cash in him. You’d be hard pressed to object to any of the spectacularly empowered Zorko, Whitfield or Sinclair.
Lachie Neale
What’s the damage?
- $584,800
- -$61.1k
- BE 143
- 41, 133, 71
His BE isn’t out of this world heading into the Tigers but we’ll get to why that may be an issue. Should subsist somewhere around the 540k~ mark.
What’s the problem?
Tags. Just simply tags. Nothing structural, nothing systematic, nothing role related. Opposition coaches are just gunning for him and given the singularity of their focus he’s putting up very little resistance. Drawing the peppy pair of Jordan and then Atkins is pretty rough but surely the Lions must have anticipated it? And yet, no answers. He’ll get McIntosh this week, who granted is much easier to break, then should play square up against Footscray and Collingwood, and then Windhager to round out the month. So that’s 2 tags in 4 matches for a guy who’s so far shown he can be vaporized by defensive attention.
What’s the go?
Coaches probably have to ride this one out. The Tigers are still a glorious midfield match up and like Macrae you just back him to break it. After Windhager, he’s then probably clean until the byes/Bedford R14, at which point there’ll be a clearer picture of the Top 8 MIDs and you can make a call on whether his non-tagged scoring justifies his spot in your side. On that Top 8 picture point, say you’ve had enough and want Neale gone this week – who really is there? The MIDs are pretty eclectic at the moments and swinging heavily with the winds of tag, form and fixture. Of the current ‘Top 8’ on average, there’s probably on 1 or 2 currently there you’d back to stay season long. He’s still functionally fine playing totally on ball in a strong side – just brace yourself when there’s a tagging fixture. His price drop is unfortunate but not as steep as others.
Max Gawn
What’s the damage?
- $619,000
- -$49.9k
- BE 212
- 129, 67, 88
Big Maxxy with the biggest BE in the land – 212. He’s lost 50k out of the gates and is going to lose atleast 100k of his starting value no matter what happens. Price maintenance, farewell! The other form of damage is then obviously his scoring: two disgraceful subtons. Even his 129 was frankly problematic. He failed to finish the job against Keeffe of all people, instead letting him cover himself in glory. That just had to be a 160. Relative to the rest of the rucks, he’s now 8th for total points. Luckily we only have two, so surely your 2nd one isn’t going worse than Max, but the bottom line is that output at 670k has been an unmitigated disaster.
What’s the problem?
The problem’s in his scoring are self-evident: uninfluential ATG work, DE, FAs, clangers. What’s compounded those latent and honestly forgivable issues is the lack of support and synergy from the rest of the Demons. There’s just no one doing anything – as basic an explanation as that sounds. Watch them: Petracca isn’t on full CBAs for some reason, Satan is still balancing his return and there’s then no presentation at stoppage. The amount of naked HOs Maxxy’s won that no one gets on is frustrating. That frustration has permeated Maxxy’s game, with his efforts by defensively and in possession hasty and often rushed. The game against Gold Coast over the weekend was illustrative. Early he was absolutely towelling Witts but no one was getting onto it. From there he opted for trying to dispose of himself and force contest wins by being physical. The results? A contribution to 7 clangers, 53% DE and 3 frees against – most of which to an opposing ruck he was well on top of early. Xerri did indeed pistol whip the week prior, so maybe the unipolar ruck landscape is over, but that still shouldn’t condemn Maxxy to 60s and 80s.
What’s the go?
I mean sacking Goodwin would be phenomenal, but outside of that there’s no role or system change to root for. The Dees are in a bad spot and Max is poorly served by the rest of the 22. That said, if SDK stays as ruck in some capacity this week, you simply cannot trade him into that match up. It will be a bloodbath. From there he gets:
- Essendon: not ideal, as their two rucks tend to wear opposition down (L3: 117, 92, 98)
- Dockers: an okay direct match up but Freo with the superior engine room (L3: 95, 98, 118)
- Richmond: Nank a big unit but not prohibitive and Tigers with no sharks OB (L3: 162, 174, 98)
- Eagles: obviously gorgeous but the damage might be done (L3: 100, 109, 73)
If SDK lines up again and you’ve already got TDK, it’s probably a hold. Dropping a 100k in a hot minute is treacherous as SC is won and lost on value and points per dollar but he’s still a ruck of incredibly high caliber.
Jason Horne-Francis
What’s the damage?
- $496,100
- -$40.9k
- BE 151
- 83, 61, 82
Bleeding cash and showing nothing to hang our hats on. JHF’s opened the season in an on ball role and barrelled into great SC midfields in Collingwood, Richmond and Essendon but produced a 75.3 average. On 90s, he’ll get to 450k~ but you really don’t want 540k players shedding over 15% of their value. Not to mention his scores are thoroughly uncompetitive and, like the others, will sting once we’re out of B18.
What’s the problem?
Without casting too many aspersions, there’s something up. We don’t know its genesis but its discontents are clear: he doesn’t look fit, has presented probably a tad overweight and lacks leg drive. Couple that physical profile with just a lack of effort and intent. He’s laid just 5 tackles over 3 games, doesn’t sprint, floats in dead space, hangs off the stoppage and is rocking a lopsided K:HB ratio. It hasn’t been pleasant on the eyes. Disinterested and off the pace. Now he did put in a real shift in terms of scoring in the 4th against the Bombers and led the way for clearances [6].
What’s the go?
It’s a pretty low stakes hold given there aren’t too many banging on the door of the Top 6 FWDs but I don’t think JHF as the capacity, as of right now, start scoring enough to make anyone rue trading him. Him to Humph or Smith nets cash and, on form, points. Just think there’s such a delta between his presentation/effort and what he’d need to do to be ‘back’ – in the meantime you could pull a few levers and circle back. Holding still acceptable, knowing you’ve taken a haircut and just strap in for him to regale some form.
Long time lurker, first time caller. Loved this GD. Really interesting read and given I don’t watch a lot of games it gives me some great insights. Top drawer.
Ah. Thanks, NJ. Great to hear from you.
Figured me watching most games needed another outlet lol. We’re also trialing some new content this week.
Best of luck.
Would love to see your thoughts on Short too GD, or else a quick vote from coaches
TU – trade
TD – hold
Yeah, definitely banish him.
Doesn’t look when he kicks, Tigers with nothing ahead of the ball anyway and no real reason to have him monopolize HB economy with the Tigers rebuilding profile.
Hasn’t gone over 90.
L3 v Lions 54, 48, 74 and Brisbane have been absolutely strangling teams in terms of possession differential.
Down to Bice or up to Whitty, Zorko, Sinc imo.
Great write up, GD. For me Sheezel is my biggest problem. As you say his role seems a lot different to last year along with a different team game style. Trouble is I have Short as well…. It’s getting ugly in there!
Yep. It’s been tough to watch.
Replied to Brian above re Short. I hate him so much it’s not even funny but he won’t change that much in price.
If you’ve had enough of Sheezel, go for it this week.
JHF to Baz for me,
Baz was a bad fade that needs correcting and also removes a player I was never 100% sold on.
GD – super insightful ! Thanks man ! Helped make my decision to keep neale , ciao JHF
Nws, Gup!
I’m binning JHF too. Had enough!
Who you Bringing into forward line for him
Yes great write up GD and can’t agree with you more about Cheezel. Too many hands in the cookie jar for mine with more options in their midfield. As much as I love him as a player he has to go now or it’s too late. I’m slightly more optimistic about JHF as with news of Butters coming back sooner rather than later I think helps him more, plus if he can lift his tempo like he did in the last quarter for more of the game then I’d hold.
Thanks for the excellent and thorough write up GD. Plenty of food for thought in there as a Sheezel, Gawn & JHF owner.
Satan’s trifecta!
I’ve got em’ too smh.
Anyone worried about Rozee and port
Great work, GD. Love the structure and intent of this column. Putting your role analysis alongside the numbers is really helpful and makes for a great read (And not just because I own Neale, JHF and Sheez).
Winner of an idea. Thanks for all the time you invest.
This is great GD, so much to think about.
Did get rid of Gawn and Day last week, but still stuck with Sheezel, JHF, Neale and SDK.
Happy to ride it out with Neale but the others are being watched closely.
Will probably have to get the cows in for dead rookies this week and hope I don’t lose too much cash.
This is GOLD standard content. If I could give it more than one thumbs up I would. Very much appreciated.
Yeah, didn’t know what I was clicking into… rolled gold. Helps me separate fact from just rage to trade.
Have Sheez, JHF & Neale now…
Guess the Sheez ride had to eventually end. Been a superstar for us all.
Gotta go.
Now.
Great read GD
Love analysis and your personal insights rather then cut and paste opinions lm noticing on many socials of AFL supercoach sites .
Already settled on J H F > B Smith and Short > Sinclair .
The question you make me consider is whether to go Sheezal > Whitfield instead of Camporeale > Moreas now that Camporeale not even named emergency
Greate write up!!
JHF – Hump gives me the cash for Freijah to Whit next week