Value Picks – DEFs

Written by on March 13 2020

Hey again

First, here’s an exhaustive list of potential value picks for your DEF lines (ranked by $/PPM)

To look at a few examples, as promised …

If I had to pick one after Sam DOCHERTY, then it would be John NOBLE.  Cheapest of all the mid-priced players, he has already proven himself at AFL level and appears to have the key attacking role of HB for the Woods, as demonstrated by his handball receive numbers in the recent Marsh Series.  The key threat for his role you would think will come from QUAYNOR who is still a few weeks away and will likely return via the VFL.  He should have served his SuperCoach purpose for us by then.  Looked great in the Marsh Series showing real poise and a touch of class.  Worst case, I think he can average 70 which will offer decent onfield points and enough cash for an upgrade by Rd8.  Anything better will be a bonus.

I think CERRA (and LUKOSIUS) will definitely improve in 2020, but their prices may not fit with needs and structure.  CERRA could even be used as a stepping stone to a keeper in the hope that he becomes one himself, but the chances are slim.

Under the radar:

Whispers in the QLD footy media are that Zac BAILEY (DEF/MID, $263,200) is a lock for a wing/HB slot at the Lions and was very impressive in Marsh 2.  A high draft pick who at only 20yrs of age scored his first SC ton on the run home last year, looks set for a big improvement in 2020.  By all accounts, the role is his to lose.  Watch!

The other one is former Pie, James AISH (FRE, $353,000) who was everywhere in Marsh 1.  Former Pie Assistant, Justin Longmuir lauded over his performance in his only Marsh appearance and alluded to his strengths as a utility for the Dockers in 2020.  With ACRES’ injury now looking more like a couple of months, could we see him playing off HB/wing early in 2020?  He is priced high enough to allow us to watch and act; but beware the imminent return of other key Dockers as his role could change in an instant.

Honorable mentions:

Jeremy HOWE ($431,900) looks the best he has in a couple of years and was all over us Saints last week for a BOG performance.  Could he be a very cheap keeper after a couple of injury-effected scores in 2019 has him underpriced?!

Brodie SMITH ($481,300) had a huge second Marsh game zoning off HB and pushing up the ground, he had a licence to roam.  Could score anything if he retains that role throughout the season, in what could be a tough year for the Crows as they come to grips with their new game style.

Former Top6 defender Jack CRISP ($482,800) has been in eye-catching form over the pre-season.  Normally a late starter when it comes to SC-output, could the uber-reliable Pie be set for a return to the elite defender group in 2020?  Appears underpriced on current form, but would love to see him improve his DE first.

Jayden SHORT ($349,300) after an injury-effected 2019 looks set for at least $100k price jump in 2020.  If Bachar HOULI falls injured, jump on.  He ave’d 99.9 over 8 games the last time HOULI sustained an LTI.

So who of the value picks are you considering (if any) in your starting line-ups if the rookies don’t materialise?  Please share your thoughts so we can discuss.

Next up is the MIDs in a couple of days.


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13 thoughts on “Value Picks – DEFs”

  1. Great write-up as usual AllSaints! At the moment it’s just John Noble for me, I can’t really fit any of the others into my team at the moment.

    One small tidbit of info though, you mentioned Bailey and Aish looked the goods from their Marsh 2 and Marsh 1 games respectively, however it is important to note that in both of those games their opponent was actually Carlton!

    Now I don’t like to make excuses, but in Marsh game 1 (Aish’s game) we had quite a few important players out, and played at 50% intensity at best, allowing the most uncontested marks in a game ever, which naturally would lead to a boost to Aish’s scoring due to his role and playstyle.

    Bailey is interesting though. We actually did try for a half of football in his game and he was still impressive, was easily one of Brisbane’s best. I had him last year in my Dead Team League due to his form, but injury history is a concern. But I think he might be an alright pick, and definitely someone to watch for in draft.


    1. I’ve had Roberton for a lot of pre-season but watching him in Marsh series I am worried that he will put up a lot of 60s which is probably not going to make him worthwhile.

      Not sure whether he’s going to be better in the real stuff or not.


      1. Thanks Hindi. That’s my worry too. If he is not going to produce scores in the 85 to 90 range then I am better off looking at a younger lower priced option. I like Cumming but am unsure about his js. If I can find the cas I might go to Cerra. Cheers….M.


      2. Thanks Hynsi. That’s my worry too. If he is not going to produce scores in the 85 to 90 range then I am better off looking at a younger lower priced option. I like Cumming but am unsure about his js. If I can find the cash I might go to Cerra. Cheers….M.


    2. I’ve gone cold on Robbo; I worry about both role and him being rested. It’s so hard to tell with all the new arrivals in the off-season, but at his price he is probably the safer pick. He has played multiple roles in both Marsh and match sim …
      I like the look of Bailey, but he’s failed in the past and has injury history. We may end up having the rookies to not pick either and you could then spend the saved cash bolstering other lines. Let’s hope so!


    1. Robeton sounds like an online big-betting agency. Are you going LONG as well?! Might be a nice handcuff manoeuvre?!


  2. Thanks All Saints
    If season delayed by 4 weeks all of a sudden options like Young and Doedee come back into play


    1. Good point, PB. Would love to get Doedee in. They might even do another pre-season game, or some more intraclubs at the very least.


  3. If you had to pick one who would it be

    TU- Roberton
    TD- Noble

    If I go noble I can pick Brayshaw, Smith and Stevens along with Whit and Dusty in forwards


  4. Thanks AS for the write up. Much appreciate the effort you guys put in with your info. I would be lost without it!

    Have HOUSTON in DEF but not convinced. Thinking maybe HOWE or B SMITH might be better options. Thoughts much appreciated.

    TU – Howe
    TD – Smith



    1. why are you not convinced on HOUSTON? Positive role change and is underpriced for it?! I like both SMITH and HOWE too, but you can’t have them all … can you?!



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